During a visit to South Korea in August 2023, I habitually checked the map as soon as I got off the plane and found that the downtown area of Seoul is only 60 kilometers away from the famous 38th parallel, and the suburbs are only 40 kilometers away. Considering that Seoul is home to 25 percent of South Korea's population, 21 percent of its GDP, and 90 percent of its large businesses, it seems that Seoul could be under great threat at any moment if North Korea chooses to move south or attack Seoul with artillery.
This close threat made me intrigued by North Korea's military prowess. According to the 2024 Global Military Power Rankings (GFP), North Korea ranks 36th out of 145 countries reviewed. North Korea has a population of 26 million, of which 5.26 million are fit for service, or about 41 per year70,000 people have reached enlistment age. North Korea's military personnel are about 900,000 in the army, 60,000 in the navy, 110,000 in the air force, 560,000 in the reserve and 100,000 in the paramilitary forces.
In comparison, South Korea has an army of about 560,000 men and a navy of 670,000, 50,000 in the Air Force, and 4.5 million in reserve. The North Korean Army has 5845 tanks, of which 3215 are in combat readiness. It includes 800 Pegasus 125mm guns, more than 1,000 Pegasus 115mm guns, more than 1,000 T-54 55 tanks, 175 Type 59 tanks, 550 PT-76 tanks and more than 50 PT-85 tanks. In addition, the DPRK has thousands of armored combat vehicles, self-propelled guns, towed artillery and MLRS multiple rocket launchers.
Although the DPRK Air Force is large in numbers, its equipment is relatively backward. In total, there are more than 100 J-5 and MiG-17 aircraft, more than 100 J-6 and MiG-19 aircraft, more than 160 J-7 and MiG-21 aircraft, 35 MiG-23 aircraft, more than 30 Su-25 aircraft and 40 MiG-29 aircraft. Although the MiG-29 is North Korea's most advanced aircraft, its performance is still insufficient compared to modern fighters such as the F16. The North Korean navy is weaker than the air force, mainly relying on two 1,500-ton Najin-class frigates.
Although the Kim Jun-ok Hero, which North Korea launched in September 2023, is called a nuclear submarine, it is actually a "tactical nuclear attack submarine" with a displacement of only 3,000 tons, which is far below the standard of a conventional nuclear submarine.
Turning to South Korea, the South Korean Army has 2,600 tanks, including more than 1,700 K1 and K2 tanks and M48, T-72, T-80 tanks. South Korea also has 3,700 armored vehicles and personnel carriers, 5,800 artillery pieces, and more than 600*** In contrast, South Korea's tanks and army equipment are significantly superior in technology to North Korea.
The South Korean Navy ranks eighth in the world, with a gross tonnage of 320,000 tons. Its navy has more than 170 ships and more than 70 aircraft, including six 5,500-ton Yi Sun-sin-class frigates, three 3,900-ton Gwanggae-do-class frigates, three 10,000-ton Sejong-class frigates, and two 190,000-ton Dokdo-class amphibious assault ship. The ROK Air Force is also very strong, with about 850 aircraft, including modern fighters such as F4, F15, FA-50, F16 and F-35.
In general, North Korea's conventional military strength, while considerable in numbers, has a clear gap with South Korea in terms of equipment and technology. North Korea's main military force is still the traditional army, navy and air force, and when it comes to modern systems such as drones, South Korea clearly has the advantage. South Korea's military strength is due not only to its own industrial capabilities, but also to technical cooperation with Western countries, especially the United States.
From a geopolitical point of view, tensions on the Korean Peninsula are not only a confrontation between the two Koreas, but also the result of complex interactions between major powers. While North Korea has maintained a threatening posture militarily, in reality, North Korea's true military capabilities cannot easily overthrow South Korea, especially in a protracted conflict. Although North Korea's nuclear and missile technology has a certain deterrent effect, its effectiveness in actual combat remains to be verified. Under the current international situation, peace and stability on the Korean peninsula still require the efforts and cooperation of all parties.