At Qatar's Lusail Stadium, history was made on Saturday, and even before Akram Afif became an Asian Cup legend, Qatar beat Jordan 3-1 to become one of only five countries to have won back-to-back titles at the Asian men's football event.
Reflecting the narrative of the tournament all along, the match was the first time in the history of the Asian Cup that one of Iran, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia or Australia did not participate. These five teams have dominated Asian football for almost the past few decades, providing nine teams for the last 12 Asian Cup finals and monopolizing Asia's place at the World Cup; Of the 22 seats Asia has secured in FIFA World Cup qualifiers since 1994, only two – China in 2002 and North Korea in 2010 – have come from outside this group.
They were replaced by Qatar and Jordan, the only third time two Arab nations have faced off in the Asian Cup final – a match billed as a "brotherly battle" – and the third Arab coach to lead the team to this stage, with Jordan's Hussein Al-Mutta joining Saudi Arabia's Khalil Alzani and Nasser Al Jowhal in Saudi Arabia. Fourteen months ago, Amuta's home country Morocco became the first Arab nation to reach the semi-finals of the World Cup, another proud moment for the region.
But in the spirit of reflection written immediately after the match, Qatar's second consecutive title and the performances of countries such as Jordan, Uzbekistan, Iraq and emotional favourite Tajikistan also opened up discussions about what Doha means for the future of Asian football over the past month. The performances of the traditional powerhouses were equally noteworthy, as they failed to perform well throughout the competition.
Because it seems that the gap that once existed between the best of Asia and the rest of the team is not as wide as it used to be. Or at least, not in Doha.
For teams on the rise, the trend of globalization and easy access to high-quality information and data is driving rapid improvements in their tactical ability, physical preparation and technical level. In Saturday's final, Jordanian and Montpellier player Moussa Altamari were the only players to play in Europe – a fact that did not stop them from reaching the final.
Although there are still some difficulties to overcome, coaches such as Amuta, Patel Shegt, Syria's Héctor Cooper, Indonesia's Shin Tae-yong and Uzbekistan coach Sreko Katanec are of a high caliber and their type can be found across the continent. These coaches have the vision to meet the challenges facing these emerging countries while maximizing the talents in their hands.
This is due to investments in not only the first-team squad, but also in youth national team programmes, including the Aspire Academy in Qatar or the youth team programme in Uzbekistan. Players from across the continent are now given more opportunities to develop at a younger age and are mentored by top coaches at key moments. And that's without taking into account the increase in investment in club football that the Saudi Pro League and other competitions in Asia are seeing.
As a result, the small countries of the past could rely on their own strengths or the talents of a few European players in the past, but now these small countries are at a high enough level that they are not only able to take up the challenge, but also to respond. They are usually unwavering, disciplined, and will take the opportunity to launch a counterattack when switching moments positively and accurately. This isn't always pretty, but it can have a devastating effect.
The expansion of the Asian Cup has also played a role, with the shift to a 24-team format giving more countries access to top-level football, which has often been denied out of the AFC's World Cup qualifying process in the past. And, like Jordan's final, the four third-placed teams in their group to advance to the knockout rounds also have an incentive to stay closely contested, increasing the number of teams based on tight defence. This is likely to happen at the 2026 World Cup as well, as it will expand to 48 teams, challenging not only the top teams, but also those in the former mid-table who now find themselves improved in the qualifying position.
But while the increase in levels across Asia is noticeable, this is only one side of the coin. As Doha has shown over the past month, the heavyweight teams, even with acknowledging the diminishing returns, are not doing too well to keep the gap open. In possession statistics, five of the five big countries mentioned above – Iran, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia and Australia – occupy five of the top seven places, but they have been unable to breach their opponents' defences during the game, despite their high possession.
No team in Doha controlled the tempo of the game more than South Korea – who boasted a staggering 696 per cent possession – but they have been, maddeningly, failed to capitalise on that advantage. Indeed, while there have been some criticisms about how they conceded goals – Jurgen Klinsmann's side failed to keep a clean sheet throughout the game – South Korea's problems with possession can be traced back to their mistakes in the game.
After winning 3-1 in their opening match against Bahrain, South Korea managed just two more goals from attack in their next five matches, one of which came against Malaysia. They did not have a shot on target for nearly an hour in the round of 16 against Saudi Arabia, and it was only after the Saudi Arabian defence retreated to a position that was the envy of the Mariana Trench that South Korea managed to break through. Against Australia, Australia had just 26 per cent of the ball, but South Korea had just two shots on target before the 96th-minute penalty.
Despite having a whopping 70 per cent possession against Jordan in the semi-finals and sending players such as Hwang Hee-chan, Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in in attack, South Korea failed to shoot on target throughout the match and their good fortune in the game eventually ran out. Or rather, they were spotted by people, depending on what you think of Klinsmann.
Of course, it's nothing new for smaller countries to sit on the defensive, and for stronger countries to defeat them, but so far, Asia's powerhouses don't seem to have adjusted their tactics accordingly. On a stage like the World Cup, the top five in Asia can still match their strongest opponents, thanks to long-term planning, technical improvements and the more open nature of these competitions – one of Australia's best games was against South Korea, who don't need to control the tempo of the game – but they also have to adapt to the responsibilities of being seen as a strong team and rediscover how to penetrate a well-organised, solid and deep defence.
Needless to say, this may not be the time to worry. The cancellation of the tournament and the withdrawal of China from the hosts, affecting the planning of the squad and placing it in the middle of the European club season and rescheduling it to the Middle East, is a reasonable obstacle that cannot be easily ignored.
All five teams advanced to the knockout stage, with two of them reaching the semi-finals, knocking out the other three. The World Cup has expanded to 48 teams and doubled the number of Asian places, meaning they will not be absent unless an irreparable disaster strikes. Perhaps this also explains why some of these countries are content to see their tournaments as a period of constant renewal: success in the Asian Cup has little to do with World Cup performance: Japan was the last Asian Cup winner in 2002 to win the Asian Cup and win the subsequent World Cup.
Therefore, it may be too early to declare that the dominance of the five Asian powers is in jeopardy. Maybe we'll have to wait until the 2026 World Cup. But Doha's games over the past month have shown that perhaps they shouldn't take Asia's stratification for granted, and at some point, other teams will start knocking on the door. Perhaps, Qatar can already say the same, as they have won the Asian Cup twice in a row, but to break the cycle and make an impact at the 2026 World Cup, it may first need to be achieved. However, the 2023 Asian Cup does show one thing: reputation and history are now less important than ever in world football.