Author: Jiang Tao (Academic Committee Member of Womin High-tech Ward Research Institute).-- An analysis of the prospects for the impact of Putin's visit to the DPRK on the regional situationRecently, the news that Putin accepted Kim Jong-un's invitation to visit the DPRK has attracted widespread attention from the world. Putin's visit to the DPRK is bound to be a big move, a big move, and a major event that will change the situation in Northeast Asia and even the world pattern.
The first is to provide strategic support to the DPRK.
Recently, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has heated up sharply, and the DPRK is facing increasing military pressure from the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Putin's visit to the DPRK itself is the greatest strategic support for the DPRK and gives the DPRK more confidence to deal with the maximum pressure and provocations of the United States, Japan, and the ROK. Russia and the DPRK will certainly take the opportunity of Putin's visit to conduct in-depth strategic communication on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia and other regional and international issues, comprehensively enhance the strategic cooperation between the two countries, and constantly sublimate and develop "invincible comrade-in-arms and strategic relations with a century-old plan." Putin stressed that Russia and the DPRK should "cooperate in all fields," so he did not rule out the formation of a military alliance between Russia and North Korea, similar to that of Belarus. This will have a huge impact on the situation in the world.
The second is to break through international sanctions against the DPRK.
In 2009, the Security Council imposed sweeping and severe sanctions on the DPRK under Resolution 1718 as a result of its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and its nuclear test. In essence, this is a sanction led and promoted by the United States, which has a serious impact on the national economy and people's livelihood of the DPRK. Putin's visit to the DPRK will certainly break through these so-called sanctions in an all-round way, comprehensively develop relations between Russia and the DPRK, and enable the two countries to "gradually become a powerful strategic fortress and tractor in maintaining international peace and security and promoting the construction of a multipolar world." This will be a heavy counterattack to US hegemony.
The third is to comprehensively improve ballistic missile technology.
Although the DPRK has intercontinental ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, nuclear weapons and other "weapons of mass destruction" that make the United States, Japan and South Korea fearful, there is a big gap in both quantity and quality. When Kim Jong-un visited Russia last September, he became interested in Russian missile technology and visited Russia's Vostochny cosmodrome. Putin's current visit to the DPRK will certainly intensify the provision of ballistic missile technology to the DPRK and enable the DPRK to have the ability to comprehensively deter the United States, Japan, and the ROK, thus maintaining a military balance under nuclear deterrence on the Korean Peninsula.
Fourth, there is an urgent need to solve the energy shortage.
Due to the fact that the DPRK has been subject to international sanctions for a long time, it can only obtain an extremely limited amount of oil and other energy resources from China, which has seriously affected the improvement of the DPRK's national economy and people's livelihood and the enhancement of its military capability. Putin's visit to the DPRK this time will certainly strengthen energy cooperation with the DPRK in an all-round way, which will not only expand the market for Russian energy exports, but also solve the urgent need of the DPRK's energy shortage. Once the DPRK has sufficient energy and resources, the DPRK's comprehensive national strength, especially its military strength, will certainly take a tremendous leap forward.
The first is to get rid of the isolation of being sanctioned.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused Russia to be subject to the most comprehensive and severe sanctions imposed by the United States and the West, and under the coercion of the United States and the West, many countries dare not develop cooperative relations with Russia. At this time, Putin's visit to the DPRK was an important breakthrough, and Russia's promotion of comprehensive relations with the DPRK enabled Russia to win another powerful foreign aid. In this way, Russia will be able to form a powerful anti-hegemonic alliance with Iran and North Korea.
The second is to disperse the pressure on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine.
With the connivance of the United States, South Korea has intervened in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and provided Ukraine with a large amount of ** equipment, which not only annoys Russia very much, but also puts Russia under more pressure on the battlefield. At this time, Putin visited the DPRK and continuously strengthened the comprehensive capabilities of the DPRK by providing military, economic and energy support to the DPRK. This also puts South Korea under increasing pressure from North Korea, which will not only make South Korea reduce its support for Ukraine, but also make the United States, Japan and South Korea devote more energy to the situation on the Korean Peninsula. As for whether Russia will open a third battlefield on the Korean Peninsula, it will depend on the two heads of state's assessment of the regional situation and the depth of cooperation.
The third is to be able to get the supplement of the conventional **.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the past two years has exposed Russia's shortcomings in terms of convention. The shortage of conventional** equipment such as artillery, artillery shells, and drones, coupled with the lack of military production capacity, has seriously restricted Russia's military operation against Ukraine. The DPRK insists on preparing for war all year round, not only storing a large number of conventional **, but also has a very strong large-scale production capacity of the military industry. Supplemented by North Korea's conventional **, it can make up for Russia's shortcomings to a certain extent and change the reality dilemma.
Fourth, the possibility of sending troops to aid Russia.
The fierce Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also made Russia appear more and more on the battlefield, and the problem of insufficient military resources also exists to varying degrees. There have long been rumors among the people that North Korea is willing to send volunteers to fight in Ukraine. If Putin's visit to the DPRK can finalize this issue, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be quickly broken and the defeat of Ukraine will be greatly accelerated.
Fifth, it is necessary to increase the bargaining chips in negotiations with the United States.
There are signs that Putin has begun preparations for Trump to come to power. Once Trump defeats Biden and wins the United States in 2024, Trump will definitely continue his previous diplomatic line after taking office, working to improve relations with Russia and ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Trump's direct improvement of relations with Russia will inevitably be constrained by anti-Russian forces in the United States, and Putin can use the help Trump to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula as a bargaining chip and make deals with Trump to achieve the goal of improving US-Russian relations.
The first is to reduce China's pressure on the Korean Peninsula.
The United States, Japan, and South Korea have strengthened their military presence on the Korean Peninsula, and the increasingly tense situation on the peninsula has also exerted military pressure on China. At this time, Putin made a decisive move, so that the Korean Peninsula appeared in a situation where China, Russia and the DPRK jointly dealt with the United States, Japan and South Korea, and the military balance on the Korean Peninsula would be guaranteed, thus reducing the pressure on China.
Second, it has weakened China's ability to control the peninsula.
There must be a good and a bad in everything. In the face of international sanctions, China has long provided the DPRK with necessary energy resources and humanitarian assistance without violating UN resolutions, enabling the DPRK to maintain the national economy, people's livelihood and social stability, and at the same time allowing China to gain greater influence over the DPRK. Putin's visit to the DPRK this time has comprehensively broken the United Nations sanctions against the DPRK, weakened the DPRK's demand for China, and the direct impact is that China's influence on the DPRK will also weaken, which will eventually lead to the weakening of China's ability to control the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Third, some of them have lost their bargaining chips with the United States.
The Korean Peninsula has always been a major battlefield in the struggle between China and the United States, and naturally it is also an important bargaining chip in negotiations between the two sides. As China's control and influence over North Korea weakens, China will have fewer and fewer cards to play in negotiations with the United States on the Korean Peninsula. In Trump's first term, China helped Trump achieve a breakthrough in de-escalation on the peninsula, successfully getting North Korea to abandon its nuclear test, and Trump made significant concessions to China on Taiwan. If Trump wins his election this year, China may not have enough leverage on the Korean Peninsula to make a so-called "deal" with the United States. This will inevitably lead to an intensification of China's game with the United States in other areas.