The fourth meeting of the ** Finance Committee held recently made detailed arrangements for promoting the trade-in of consumer goods, and emphasized that accelerating product upgrading is an important measure to promote high-quality development. This is also the first major meeting after the first economic work conference, the first blockbuster meeting once again proposed to trade in the old for the new and make detailed arrangements. Relevant ministries and commissions have also made it clear that they will promote the opening of the difficult blockages of the old for the new.
Industry experts interviewed by reporters believe that the demand and potential for the upgrading of durable consumer goods in China is very large, and it is expected that there will be specific favorable policies to promote the trade-in in the near future, which will effectively leverage the two markets of increment and stock, and promote the growth momentum of consumption.
Blockbuster deployments continue to "trade in the old" as a key word
The ** Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2023 proposed to promote large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods when deploying economic work in 2024 to improve technology, energy consumption, emissions and other standards. The fourth meeting of the ** Financial and Economic Committee held on February 23 emphasized that accelerating product upgrading is an important measure to promote high-quality development, and it is necessary to encourage and guide the renewal of equipment and the trade-in of consumer goods on a new scale.
Relevant departments also mentioned trade-in when deploying this year's measures to promote consumption. The Ministry of Commerce said that it will take the improvement of technology, energy consumption, emissions and other standards as the traction, promote the opening of the difficulties of trade-in, stabilize and expand traditional consumption, and better meet the needs of consumer goods replacement and upgrading.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told reporters that these deployments mean that this year's pro-consumption policies will be made in advance in key areas, which is conducive to boosting consumer demand and promoting the macroeconomic recovery in the first half of the year.
From the perspective of specific areas, the fourth meeting of the ** Finance and Economics Committee pointed out that traditional consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances are encouraged to be traded-in, and durable consumer goods are promoted to be traded-in. According to Wang Qing's analysis, at present, bulk durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances are in a critical stage of green transformation. Focusing on encouraging the large-scale trade-in of these commodities can not only promote high-quality durable consumer goods to enter residents' lives faster, so that more residents can experience the sense of gain brought by industrial transformation and upgrading, but also provide a driving force for the supply side to continue to accelerate the green transformation, and consolidate China's technological leadership in related fields.
Guan Lixin, a researcher at the Circulation and Consumption Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, also pointed out that the trade-in of the old in a wider range and more fields can activate the potential of the consumer market with "quantity" and "quality". "On the one hand, as the demand for durable consumer goods such as automobiles, home appliances, and furniture has entered a concentrated release period, trade-in can leverage consumers to transform potential demand into actual demand, thereby expanding the scale of consumption; On the other hand, replacing traditional 'old' products with high energy consumption and high pollution with 'new' products such as green and smart can promote the high-quality development of consumption. ”
Improve the first-class system and smooth the cycle of consumption and renewal
It is worth noting that this round of policies focuses on the use of the link. **The fourth meeting of the Financial Committee pointed out that it is necessary to promote large-scale recycling and strengthen the development of "new +** logistics system and new models."
In fact, relevant policies have been introduced one after another. The reporter noted that in July last year, with the consent of the first department, the "Several Measures to Promote Household Consumption" issued by 12 departments proposed to improve the network of waste materials. Before the Spring Festival, with the consent of the Ministry of Commerce, 9 departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a notice to make special arrangements for improving the system of renewable resources such as waste household appliances and furniture.
Industry analysts believe that China's durable consumer goods market such as automobiles and home appliances has entered the "era of both increment and stock" from the simple "incremental era", and the improvement of the utilization system is conducive to better activating the market. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, in 2023, the number of cars will be about 3400 million units, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners and other major categories of household appliances more than 3 billion units, some household appliances have been used for more than 10 or 20 years, and the demand and potential for upgrading are great.
Guan Lixin said that improving the system of renewable resources such as waste household appliances and furniture can improve the whole life cycle service of durable consumer goods, effectively solve consumers' worries, and better release the consumption potential; On the other hand, it can smooth the consumption cycle of household appliances and furniture, promote the efficiency of resource recycling, and optimize the consumption environment for trade-in.
Playing a good policy combination to stabilize the momentum of consumption growth
The trade-in of consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances requires production, supply and marketing, upstream and downstream, government, enterprises and people, online and offline coordination and linkage, and comprehensive policies. **The fourth meeting of the Financial and Economic Committee emphasized that it is necessary to play a good policy combination, and proposed to trade in consumer goods for the new, adhere to the linkage of finance and locality, and coordinate and support all links of the whole chain to benefit more consumers.
Feng Lin, a senior analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said that it is expected that the relevant departments will introduce specific measures in the future, and the policy will be implemented in the near future. Among them, ** and local finance is expected to provide a certain scale of financial subsidies, referring to the scale of subsidies for similar policies in the past, the policy coverage is wider and stronger, and the current round of trade-in subsidies may reach the level of 100 billion yuan. In addition, it is expected that financial institutions will launch or upgrade relevant consumer loan varieties, and relevant manufacturers will also take advantage of the trend to launch a number of preferential measures.
Wang Qing and Feng Lin analyzed that, on the whole, this round of trade-in in a wider range and more fields will effectively leverage residents' consumption. They judged that the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 is expected to reach 6About 5%, 05 percentage points. "In the context of a sharply higher base, this year-on-year growth rate will be basically the same as the previous year, which means that the growth momentum of household consumption will be stronger this year. (Economic Information Daily).