Miaokeland can't sell anymore?
On January 30, Microcolando (SH600882) released its 2023 annual performance forecast.
According to the announcement, in 2023, Microcolando expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be 48 million yuan to 72 million yuan, compared with 1Compared with 3.5 billion yuan, it decreased by 63.4 million yuan to 87.4 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 468%-64.5%；It is estimated that the net profit after deducting non-profits in 2023 will be 4.8 million yuan to 7 million yuan, a decrease of 89 compared with 66.92 million yuan in the same period last year5%-92.8%。
It is worth noting that Microcolando's net profit after deducting non-profits in 2023 is roughly similar to Chai Xiu's total pre-tax remuneration in recent years. From 2021 to 2022, Chai Xiu's salary is 690120,000 yuan, 585830,000 yuan.
According to the financial report for the third quarter of 2023, Microcoland's revenue in the first three quarters was 307.5 billion yuan, down 19 percent year-on-year69%；The net profit was 33.88 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 764%。According to this estimate, the net profit of Microcolando in the fourth quarter of 2023 will be 14.12 million yuan to 38.12 million10,000 yuan.
As for the reasons for the expected decrease in performance, Microcolando explained that the growth rate of the industry will slow down in 2023, and the company will actively promote various response measures, but the overall operating income will decline year-on-year. At the same time, the cost of the company's main raw materials increased compared with the same period last year, which led to a decline in the company's cheese business revenue, which in turn affected the net profit. In addition, the company's net profit decreased due to a decrease in foreign exchange lock-up income and an increase in net interest expenses compared with the same period last year.
It is worth noting that after the release of the company's performance forecast, the share price of Microcolando was quickly "voted with their feet" by investors, and as of February 2, Microcolando reported a decline of 424%, and the stock price reached 1288 yuan, the lowest value of the stock price in nearly a year.
Mengniu became the biggest "victim" of Miaokelando?
In fact, since the release of the earnings forecast, the stock price of Microcolando has fallen for three consecutive trading days, and the endless decline in the stock price has also caused many investors to lose confidence in Microcolando. Among them, some investors said in the stock bar that "I am really desperate", "I have really been educated for a whole year", "it is terrible to cut in half for 20 years", "Mengniu is the biggest leek"...
In addition to investors, Mengniu may have become the biggest "victim" of Microcolando in the capital market.
In January 2020, Mengniu announced that it would invest 28.7 billion yuan, the acquisition of 5% of the shares of Microcoland, and 45.8 billion yuan to buy Jilin Science and Technology 42., a subsidiary of Miaokelan9% stake.
Since Mengniu took a stake in Microcolando, Microcolando's share price has skyrocketed and hit 84. per share in 2021The highest record of 5 yuan, the market value once exceeded 40 billion. However, as of February 2, 2024**, Microcolando's share price has fallen to 12. per share88 yuan, the market value is only 661.7 billion yuan.
In July 2021, Microcolando won 2971 yuan per share ** issued to Mengniu 10.1 billion shares, Mengniu's shareholding ratio has also increased from 1107% to 2846% and became the controlling shareholder. In October 2022, Mengniu won another 30$92 per share of ** and about 258090,000 shares.
At that time, Chai Xiu, the former chairman of Miaokeland Duoyuan, once said, "Before Mengniu's funds came in, we didn't dare to let go of our hands, and after Mengniu's funds came in, it can be said that we are strong and strong, with sufficient grain and grass, and our pressure is not so great." ”
However, the pressure on Microcolando seems to have shifted to Mengniu.
As of February 2**, the share price of Microcolando has fallen below the cost of Mengniu's shareholding, and roughly calculated, only the above two acquisitions, Mengniu lost more than 2.1 billion yuan.
According to the increase in holdings records of the company, in the past year, Mengniu's capital increase and equity purchase of Microcolando have occurred in the ** range of about 16 yuan per share. Now the share price of Microcolando has fallen below 13 yuan, which is undoubtedly a huge loss for Mengniu, which is the first to take over.
In the face of the falling stock price of Microcoland, investors also have many questions about it. As early as June 8, 2023, an investor asked Microcolando on the SSE e-interaction: "The company's stock price continues to hit new lows, and it is investing in heavy losses, does the company have any measures to boost investor confidence?" ”
In this regard, Microcolando replied that the stock price change is affected by multiple factors, and the company makes every effort to do a good job in daily operation and management, and also attaches great importance to the performance of the secondary market of stock prices, and is committed to promoting the company's high-quality development and effectively protecting the interests of investors.
It is worth mentioning that before the marriage with Mengniu, there were great deficiencies in the internal control management of Microcolando.
Previously, Chai Xiu, the original actual controller of Miaokeland Duo, had repeatedly transfused blood to his family business to repay debts by pledging equity and illegal lending. On December 20, 2019, Miaokeland issued an announcement saying that the company found in its self-inspection that Chai Xiu had repeatedly used the company's funds to borrow funds from the company controlled by his spouse Cui Mindong and daughter Cui Xintong, and the total amount of funds occupied during the year reached 24 billion yuan, accounting for 19 percent of the company's latest audited net assets66%。On the same day, Microcolando received an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
According to the enterprise investigation, since 2017, Chai Xiu has pledged more than 50 times, and most of the pledges are used for "the operation needs of Guangze Investment and Development in Jilin Province and its related parties". According to the 2023 semi-annual report, almost all of Chai Xiu's shares in Microcolando have been pledged.
In addition, according to the investigation of the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau, Microcolando did not account for the above two capital occupations, which led to an inflated monetary fund of 89.5 million yuan in the first quarter of 2019 and a monetary fund of 2 in the semi-annual report and the third quarterly report in 201939.5 billion yuan, resulting in false records in the balance sheet of the first quarter, semi-annual report and third quarter report of 2019, which failed to truly reflect the company's financial situation. The Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau also issued a warning letter to Chai Xiu for administrative supervision measures.
Microcoland's performance is "stalled".
At the investor conference in August 2022, Lu Minfang, President of Mengniu Group and Chairman of Microcolando, said: "Mengniu, as the major shareholder of the company, regards Microcolando as the only operating platform for the cheese business, and hopes that Microcolando will become the absolute leader in the cheese category. ”
However, Miaokelando, who was pinned on by Lu Minfang, has fallen into the predicament of performance stalling in recent years.
As early as 2022, the decline in the performance of Microcolando has been reflected.
According to the financial report, from 2019 to 2022, the operating income of Microcolando was 174.4 billion yuan, 284.7 billion yuan, 447.8 billion yuan, 48300 million yuan, the year-on-year growth rate was respectively. 84%。
It can be seen that the growth rate of Microcoland's revenue has gradually slowed down, and in 2022, it will record "increased revenue without increasing profits", achieving a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13.5 billion yuan, down 12 percent year-on-year3%；Non-net profit decreased by 45% year-on-year14%。
In this regard, Microcolando pointed out in the financial report that the decline in net profit is mainly due to the impact of poor transportation and logistics, intensified competition in raw materials, and weak consumption in 2022.
In the first three quarters of 2023, Microcoland's performance suffered a "double decline" in revenue and net profit, and the decline in performance was even more significant. During the reporting period, Microcolando achieved revenue of 307.5 billion yuan, down 19 percent year-on-year69%；The net profit was 33.88 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7642%；The non-net profit loss was 1.91 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10216%。
In terms of business, in the first three quarters of 2023, the cheese business achieved revenue of 241.6 billion yuan, down 18 percent from the same period last year36%；The liquid milk business achieved revenue of 24.4 billion yuan, down 10 percent from the same period last year74%；Even the revenue of the ** business fell by 30% year-on-year72%。
Microcolando pointed out in the announcement that the company's attributable net profit in the first three quarters of 2023 and the third quarter decreased mainly due to the decline in operating income and gross profit margin of cheese products, and the decrease in forward foreign exchange purchase income compared with the same period last year.
In fact, after rapid growth, the growth rate of the cheese market is gradually slowing down. SPDB International has pointed out in a research report that the growth dividend brought by cheese sticks to the cheese industry in the past 10 years is likely to be coming to an end.
According to Nielsen data, from 2020 to 2022, the retail sales of cheese in China will be 323.8 billion yuan, 419.2 billion yuan, 433.7 billion yuan, the growth rate was respectively. 5%。
The pace of growth is slowing, but there are more and more entrants, and the cheese market is becoming more competitive. In addition to Yili, Mengniu and other leading dairy companies competing for the market, Miaokeland is also facing competition from brands such as Guangming, Sanyuan, Miaofei, and Dr. Cheese.
In addition, Dawang Financial News noticed that it is difficult for the new product of Microcolando to reproduce the "brilliance" of children's cheese sticks. According to the annual report, in 2022, the gross profit margins of Microcolando's family table series and catering industry series will be respectively. 56%, well below the 51 in the ready-to-eat nutrition series23%。At the same time, the gross profit margins of ready-to-eat nutrition series, family table series, and catering industry series all decreased compared with 2021.
Senior dairy analyst Song Liang pointed out that on the whole, the cheese market is still growing, but the growth rate of children's processed cheese has slowed down significantly or even declined.
Song Liang further pointed out that at present, the growth of baked cheese and table cheese has also slowed down significantly, which is due to the lack of consumption in the past two years, but overall, cheese as a whole still maintains a growth trend. Therefore, many cheese companies are speeding up the adjustment of product structure, increasing the production of such dietary cheese, baked cheese and other products, and increasing the function of scene and socialization.