Write this article about the future of the A** field pattern.
It is not for the sake of simply the direction of the future market, but according to the current macro and micro situation, to talk about the possible changes in the future market.
Let's start with a few core points.
1. Blue chips, eating dividends, have become an important way to manage money.
Why is it financial management, because there will be more and more ** investors to face up to the matter of eating dividends.
This matter may not be a particularly reliable thing in the past few decades.
But in the future, in the era of persistently low interest rates on banks, buying high dividends will slowly become popular.
In fact, in the bear market of 2022-2023, CSI dividends, low dividend volatility, including high dividends** led by bank stocks, have shown very good resilience.
Behind this is actually the influx of funds into the high-dividend track, including the blue-chip direction of the CSI 300.
Dividends of more than 3%, or even more than 5%, will become the future of the market, attracting long-term capital into the market.
Among them, there will be some mature investors who will take dividends as an important way to manage their finances in the future.
2. The high volatility will be dominated by small and medium-sized science and technology innovation, and opportunities and risks coexist.
The volatility of the market will gradually decrease in the future, but small and medium-sized science and technology innovation will still fluctuate significantly.
The Shanghai Composite Index may remain in a range for a period of time, and funds with low risk appetite will make a large number of layouts based on valuations.
However, some funds that want to make a lot of money will still enter the game, and the main direction is in small and medium-sized science and technology.
Listed companies with a market value of 10 billion yuan may become the main battlefield.
Small-capitalization companies that don't have hard power are likely to accelerate their elimination.
There will be a clear coexistence of opportunities and risks in the market, the best in this branch, and the worst in this part of the company.
Large-scale ** will become the main theme, and the opportunity depends on how to grasp it.
3. The pace of listing of state-owned enterprises will be accelerated, and the market value management and dividend management will not be less.
There are also some state-owned enterprises, especially local state-owned enterprises, which have not yet been listed, and will accelerate their listing in the next few years.
The main part of local finance is land finance in the past, and capitalization will occur in the future, that is, equity finance.
Support high-quality listed companies, and then supplement local fiscal revenue through taxes and dividends.
This part of the high-quality state-owned enterprises will also be an important capital reservoir in the future, and local equity investment, capital investment, etc., all need to be borne by this part of the enterprise.
4. Pensions and social security will accelerate their entry into the market, and bind big blue chips to get out of the slow bull.
The fundamental reason why there is no slow cattle in the Chinese market is that the interests are not sufficient.
One of the social contradictions is to solve the problem of the future demographic dividend and the problem of population aging.
Therefore, there will be steps for pensions and social security to enter the market, but step by step.
This part of the funds is destined to only be bound to big blue chips, and the CSI A50 is actually tailored for this part of the funds.
When will this part of the funds come, when will the slow cattle come, if this part of the funds does not enter the market for a long time, the slow cattle may become a bubble.
It's just that judging from the current situation, this matter is imperative, but it is still unknown how fast the process will be.
5. The Beijing Stock Exchange will become a new hotbed (financing base) for specialized and special new enterprises.
Let's talk about the Beijing Stock Exchange, in fact, the reason is very simple, there must be dividends.
It's not a round in the second half of 2023, and this kind of short-term behavior is not a bonus.
The emergence of an exchange means that there must be a use for it, and when it starts to really operate, the capital dividend comes.
The positioning of the Beijing Stock Exchange has actually been slowly changing, as can be seen from the IPO method of the Beijing Stock Exchange.
If the Beijing Stock Exchange finally implements the detailed rules and can be listed without going through the transfer board, and the specialized and special new enterprises can be directly IPO, it will undoubtedly be a great benefit.
Essentially, companies may be able to benefit directly from patents and enter the capital markets for financing.
Once the positioning of the Beijing Stock Exchange changes, the speculation space of the market will be opened, and everything will be possible.
6. ETFs will be issued on a large scale, not only **, but also a large number of institutional investors will participate.
The investment direction of the market, from the original ** investment, has actually quietly shifted to ETFs.
Public offering** is actually a transitional investment method, and in mature markets, index ETF investment is the majority.
The ** of active management cannot outperform the index of passive management, which is the norm.
* The enthusiasm for investing in ETFs will rise greatly because the stock selection is not understood.
Not only that, a large number of institutional investors will also use ETFs to invest, because it is more convenient and efficient, and there are not too many pitfalls.
Then, the market will cooperate with the issuance of a large number of corresponding ETFs to expand the scale of the market and absorb more funds.
7. The weighted listed companies of A50 will become the cornerstone of the market, and the emerging companies of the 100 will become the future of the market.
There is always a cornerstone of the market, and there must always be a future, different parts, with different responsibilities.
The launch of A50 integrates the SSE 50 and selects the CSI 300, including the core targets of the Entrepreneurship 50 and the Science and Technology Innovation 50.
This index, like the US 50, has become the cornerstone of the market.
However, high growth is not destined to belong to the A50, and the task of growth will still be pressed on the top of the creation 100.
Companies that can grow significantly in the future are also the pillars of future technology, and they are all in the direction of creating 100.
Chuang100 is a general concept, not only Kechuang 100, but also Science and Technology 100, including chips, innovative drugs, new energy, AI and a series of representative future directions.
It's like the S&P and Nasdaq in the United States, each with its own importance and its own mission.
Many people may ask what is the basis for your judgment.
In fact, many things do not need an accurate basis, it is based on the current macro fundamentals, the main contradictions of the current economy, the current money market where the funds are going, and the current market vane to make a comprehensive judgment.
Core: A new reservoir is needed in the future.
This water storage is not an ordinary investment, not an investable property for residents, but a pension and social security.
When I first heard about the financial powerhouse, I didn't react.
After pondering for a long time, I realized that everything was slowly starting to become clear.
It is completely necessary to walk on two legs, and the ** market that relies on IPO financing alone will eventually come to an end, and the other leg must keep up.
Using the cornerstone funds to bind the cornerstone of listed companies is the only way for any financial market to become bigger and stronger.
As for de-a**, it is also inevitable.
Because only when there are no leeks to cut in the market, the funds will switch from the first-class arbitrage model to the long-term value model.
In fact, it has been very fast for the market to start taking this step, after all, A-shares have only been around for more than 30 years, and there are so many ** shares.
In the next few years, there may be rapid changes and trial and error in the system itself to accelerate the development process of the market.
At this stage, the market will still have a lot of pain, and it will not be as smooth as imagined.
There will also be a long period of time for the market to fluctuate around below 3,000 points, so be mentally prepared.
**How many people can wait for the next round of bull market is still unknown, but in the true sense of A-shares, the bull market that does not look back will eventually come in the distant future.
Disclaimer: This content is provided by *** Monster Hunter and is for reference only and does not constitute operational advice. If you operate by yourself, pay attention to ** control and risk at your own risk.
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