Do you think the dollar holds its value? Wrong! In fact, ** is the real safe haven.
Jim Rogers disagrees with most people that the dollar is no longer worth anything.
The United States has the world's largest debt, but everyone still believes that the dollar is the safest currency to be relied on"Safe haven"。As soon as something happens, everyone will exchange all their money for dollars and rush to"Safe haven"。
There used to be a close relationship between real interest rates and ***; When interest rates are high, they are cheap, and when they are low, they are expensive. But in recent years, the relationship has ceased to work. Obviously, although interest rates are not low at the moment, *** has been**.
Actually,"Not low interest rates"An inverted comma should be used because the current interest rate in the US is 525%-5.5%, slightly higher than in previous years, but with an average interest rate of 4 over the past 20 years6% is about the same.
Some people say that when interest rates are high, ** is worthless because it doesn't earn interest like bonds. According to this statement, since you can borrow money to earn interest, why buy **?
In fact, there are a lot of good reasons for this. To put it simply, countries with comparable strength to the United States are reluctant to buy U.S. bonds (i.e., dollars) because they believe there are better investment options.
Among the many countries, China is a unique example. Due to the rapid appreciation of the renminbi in recent years, China is one of the few developing countries that still chooses the US dollar over ** as its reserve currency. But this did not stop the Chinese from loving **, and they bought ** in large quantities for personal consumption. China's ** reserves increased by 225 tonnes last year, although the exchange rate with the yuan remained high, according to China's central bank.
Last year's global** demand data has been released and is receiving a lot of attention. The most striking of these is the amount of purchases by central banks, but that's not the only bright spot.
In 2023, the world** demand reached a record high of 4,899 tonnes. This figure includes 398 tonnes of ** derivatives, i.e. financial products linked to ***. Excluding these, the world** demand is 4,448 tonnes, 5% less than in 2022.
Some people may say that the number of derivatives has reached a record, so what's the problem? Actually, there are more interesting things. It turned out that the data given by the World Association was slightly different, as it changed the demand of central banks in 2022 from 1,136 tons to 1,082 tons. Although the difference is not very big, if you are the warehouse worker responsible for storing the 54 tons**, it is not fun.
In 2023, central banks** purchases fell by 4% to just 1,037t. This is mainly due to the currency crisis in Turkey. At first, Turkey was a big player, but in order to stabilize the domestic market, it used all its reserves and almost no longer bought. This shook the local market, and even the world's market. However, without this setback, last year's ** demand was actually very strong, close to an all-time high.
Turkey just needs to ** 44 again5 tons** is all it takes to break a record. Turkey also restarted buying** in December, buying 18 tonnes in one go, recovering from its previous **.
Also with increased demand**, reaching a maximum of $2078 at the end of 2023. The average** is also at an all-time high of $1 940.
There is a wonderful relationship between *** and ***: **always follows*** but sooner or later it catches up with or even surpasses *** This is not the first time, and I am sure that history will prove it again.
While **and** are worth investing in***, their industrial value cannot be ignored either, especially in terms of production.
Industrial silver now accounts for 60% of demand, up from 50% just a few years ago. This is mainly due to the widespread use of solar panels to achieve"Green"Energy transition.
According to the World Bank, industrial silver demand in 2023 is 8% higher, with solar panels using a staggering 1900 million ounces, beating expectations by 1600 million ounces. At the same time, production in Mexico, the largest producer, fell by 12%, while in Peru, it fell to its lowest level in 20 years.
Solar panel manufacturers want to reduce their reliance on silver, but this is a stopgap measure, not a long-term one. Solar panels are large and heavy devices that require a lot of silver for their performance and efficiency. Even if the total production of solar panels does not increase, more silver will be needed to meet its demand. So, where does silver come from? For the past three years, demand has been in short supply, which is a signal that cannot be ignored, and it will react accordingly.
* It is a barometer of supply and demand. No one can say exactly how much it will rise, but one thing is for sure, it will go up very high.
The U.S. dollar remains the world's main reserve currency and a favorite among people"Safe haven"。However, people in developing countries are increasingly in need of ** because it is more valuable and suitable as an investment than the US dollar"Safe haven"。