Recently, I had a long chat with a friend who has lived in Zhongshan for nearly ten years.
He talked a lot about the problems of Zhongshan, which made people feel deeply anxious, and the future of Zhongshan was worrying about the fierce competition in the city today.
1. I have lived in Zhongshan for almost ten years, and I have watched the housing prices rise step by step, and when I first came over, I was unable to complain about Zhongshan, and it was inconvenient to do anything. There are many industrial areas, the city center is not popular, they are all part-time workers, the roads are rotten, the tap water is not filtered and cannot be drunk, but slowly I got used to it, Zhongshan is difficult to walk without a car, count on the bus.
2. Zhongshan shopping is only a few places, Zhongshan housing prices have been overdrawn too much, there is no space, how to leverage the average salary of 5000 1Room rates above 5.
3. The efficiency of work is slow, a section of the road can be repaired for a few years, repaired, renovated, repeated, obviously mixed work to earn funds, the longer the better, the slower the better, the better, anyway, the truth is not good.
4. Each town and district has its own policy, and has not formed a concentrated force to promote major development projects. This lack of overall planning and coordination has led to fragmented and chaotic development.
The estrangement between towns and districts makes it more difficult to move factors of production, especially human resources. The industrial towns in the northwest are facing particularly serious challenges due to the long-term lag in transportation construction. Asking about the ease of recruiting high-quality talents for enterprises in various towns and districts can reflect the scarcity of human resources in Zhongshan.
5. There is no introduction of high-end industries, almost 0. Mobile phone?Chips?Cars?it?In the final analysis, it is still traditional manufacturing. There is no introduction of university branches, how many colleges and universities have opened branches in other places, Jieyang has a Guanggong branch, Zhuhai has a CUHK branch, etc., what do you have in Zhongshan?
6. There is a lack of expressways in traffic, and only a few towns have planned expressways, and other towns and districts go for about an hour. Zhongshan is a big place, but it cannot closely unite the towns and districts, and some roads have been congested all year round and have not improved. The bus system is terrible, only the buses in the city run until around 10 pm, and the buses in the towns close at 7 pm (most of them don't operate after 7:30), can you believe it?If you don't have a private car in Zhongshan, do you dare to live in the town?
7. Sometimes look at others Foshan, Huizhou, Dongguan, I feel really angry, it seems that in addition to getting a little dividend during the reform and opening up, Zhongshan has never progressed, it should be said that from my birth to the present, it is still what it is, and the industrial upgrading has failed.
This small thing, the accumulation of a big thing, hinders the inflow of talents, the development of enterprises, but also limits the competitiveness of the whole city.
In my opinion, the real turning point of the city of Zhongshan was in 2019.
For Zhongshan, 2019 can be called the darkest, compared to 2018, Zhongshan's GDP shrank by 531600 million, GDP growth rate is only 11%。
From 2018 to 2019, Zhongshan's GDP fell from sixth to ninth in Guangdong, and was overtaken by the three cities of Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Maoming in the province.
In 2022, Zhongshan's GDP will be 36312.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 05%, once one of the "Four Little Tigers of Guangdong", is now facing a passive situation of "interception in the front and chasing soldiers in the back".
In the first quarter of 2022, Zhongshan's GDP was overtaken by Zhanjiang, lagging behind by 216.6 billion yuan;As of the end of 2022, the gap between the two places has widened to 81$2.8 billion.
And behind Zhongshan, Shantou is in hot pursuit.
Shantou's GDP in 2022 is 30174.4 billion yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and the gap with Zhongshan was less than 61.4 billion yuan.
In fact, the biggest difficulty facing Zhongshan is not the declining GDP ranking and growth rate, but the city's deep relationship with "real estate", slowly moving towards mediocrity.
Back in 2015, under the "Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor" plan, Zhongshan's real estate industry was able to prosper rapidly.
With the influx of speculators from all over the country, from 2015 to 2016, the floor price of Zhongshan quadrupled in two years, and the house price increased from 5,000-6,000 yuan square meters to 1More than 30,000 square meters, the average salary in Zhongshan at that time was only about 3,000 yuan.
In the first half of 2016, the proportion of real estate development investment in Zhongshan soared to 493%, and in 2018 it was as high as 625%, much higher than the whole province of Guangdong 20 percentage points.
In 2017, under the influence of the policy of restricting purchases and loans, the Zhongshan property market began to fall in volume and price, and until 2019, the logic of the Zhongshan real estate market has changed, the residential market is weak, the transaction volume is low, and the second-hand residential land market continues to ......be sluggish
When real estate falls, can there be other industries in Zhongshan that can stand up?
Looking at the surrounding sister cities, Dongguan has Huawei, OPPO and other enterprises, Foshan has Midea, Zhuhai has Gree, Zhanjiang and Huizhou have petrochemical and other large-scale projects.
What does Zhongshan have?Zhongshan's industries are still dominated by traditional industries, such as Guzhen Lighting, Xiaolan Hardware, Dongfeng Home Appliances, Dachong Mahogany, etc.
These traditional industries not only restrict economic development, but also have a deep relationship with the real estate industry.
Starting from 2021, China's real estate has entered a new cycle. Private real estate companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden have fallen one after another, and the sales area of new houses across the country has been declining, what impact will this have on the economic development of cities like Zhongshan?What is the impact on these business owners and employees?
In Zhongshan, the private economy and real industries support half of the city's economy and are an important driving force for economic growth.
The rapid boom of real estate has caused many private entrepreneurs to devote themselves to real estate speculation or turn to real estate development, which has accelerated the transformation of the economy from real to virtual.
In 2023, when the national property market shows a chill, the Zhongshan market will face the problem of overcapacity from furniture, air conditioners, refrigerators, and bathroom systems to lighting, pots and pans, and hardware accessories.
In 2024, the Shenzhong Channel is indeed a good thing.
But think about it, Dongguan and Huizhou are bordered by land with Shenzhen, why does Shenzhen fly with Zhongshan on the other side of the Pearl River?
After the industrial upgrading of Shenzhen, some enterprises spilled over, which was the choice of the enterprise itself, and the enterprise chose Dongguan and Huizhou.
What does Zhongshan rely on to attract enterprises and talents?What do you rely on to compete with Huizhou and Dongguan?
Rely on traffic jams every day, rely on tap scale, rely on slow work efficiency, or rely on abnormally high housing prices?
Summary:
Zhongshan, a city that once achieved rapid development in the early days of reform and opening up, is now facing multiple difficulties and challenges.
From urban planning, industrial structure to real estate market, Zhongshan seems to be undergoing a profound transformation. At this critical juncture, the future of the city seems to be hanging in the balance, full of uncertainty.
The fragmentation and inefficiency of urban planning have slowed down infrastructure development, seriously affecting the vitality and attractiveness of cities.
Inconvenient transportation, water quality problems, and inefficiency ......These seemingly small problems are actually big problems that hinder urban development, and they slow down the inflow of talent and the pace of enterprise development.
In addition, Zhongshan's real estate market, which once boomed rapidly, now seems to have moved towards mediocrity and over-dependence, losing its real economic momentum.
In the face of these problems, Zhongshan needs a comprehensive and profound change. It includes speeding up the construction and improvement of urban infrastructure, improving work efficiency, and re-examining and adjusting the urban industrial structure, especially reducing dependence on real estate, and introducing and cultivating more high-end industries. At the same time, regional coordination and cooperation should be strengthened, and the barriers between towns and districts should be broken to form a more unified and efficient urban development pattern.
In today's era of globalization and rapid technological development, Zhongshan is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges.
However, in order to achieve high-quality development, Zhongshan faces greater difficulties and more arduous tasks than others.
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