Does the emergence of four "abnormalities" in society mean that something unusual is happening?
Time flies, and we have ushered in the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon. However, when we analyze 2023, we find that despite the deregulation of the epidemic in our country and the rapid growth of the national economy, there was no retaliatory consumption and house purchase expected by all sectors of society last year. On the contrary, there are some surprises"Not normal"phenomena, such as retaliatory deposits, property market adjustments, employment difficulties and other social problems. It seems that it will take some time to fully return to the state before the pandemic.
Entering 2024, many people feel that they didn't make much money last year, but some have appeared in society"Anomaly", which is manifested in the following aspects.
i.Severe ageing in large cities.
At present, the elderly population in major cities is on the rise. Data shows that by the end of 2022, the proportion of the elderly population over 60 years old in Beijing will reach 213%, Shanghai will reach 368%, more than a third of the total population. However, large cities such as Beijing and Shanghai entered"Ageing"Society, which has brought about two major social problems:
First of all, a large number of elderly workers retire every year, and the pressure on pension payments is increasing. Secondly, with"Ageing"With the advent of society, the pension system, including community pension, elderly care, and nursing homes, will face greater needs and challenges.
ii.A large area of vacant brick-and-mortar stores.
Nowadays, walking down the bustling streets, you will inevitably see some empty shops hanging in front of the door"Shop for rent"The words. Especially in areas with a small number of brick-and-mortar stores, there are a large number of brick-and-mortar stores that are vacant. The main reason for this phenomenon is that after the pandemic, many people lost their jobs or their incomes decreased, resulting in a sharp drop in consumer demand.
In addition, during the pandemic, many people developed the habit of shopping online. They find it cheaper to shop online, and they can also enjoy the convenience of home delivery. Even now that the pandemic is under control, people are still used to shopping online. As a result, a large number of brick-and-mortar stores are no longer rented out and remain vacant as usual. This change has sparked a rethinking of traditional retail.
Third, there is a large number of immigrants"Escape"Metropolis.
For a long time, first-class cities have always been the center of attracting talents, with a wide range of high-quality resources, gathering and attracting a large number of foreign talents to show their talents.
However, in recent years we have seen an interesting phenomenon: outsiders are doing it on a large scale"Escape"Metropolis. The reasons are varied: the high cost of living, the tight pace of life, and the fact that there are no fewer opportunities for development elsewhere than in first-tier cities.
The data also confirms this trend: the number of out-of-towners leaving big cities is on the rise, which makes us wonder: do big cities need to rethink the way they attract and retain talent?
Maybe it's time to start making possible policy recommendations as well.
Fourth, young people are reluctant to have children.
Nowadays, the reluctance of young people to have children seems to have become a common phenomenon. They saw the hardships that their fathers had to pay for their lives, and they knew that raising a child required a huge amount of financial resources and energy. However, today's social environment is full of challenges: high housing prices, strong educational pressures, and fierce competition in the workplace make young people feel that motherhood is no longer an affordable thing. They are more willing to devote their time and energy to developing their careers and enjoy a life of freedom.
Without money, even having children has become a luxury, and the pressure on young people is really too great. In this case, they naturally lose interest in procreation. The decline in young people's willingness to have children will lead to an aging population, labor shortages, and increased social security burdens.
When young people feel happy, carefree, and hopeful in life, they will be more willing to take on more responsibilities for the country and society, including having the next generation. Only if we manage to provide people with adequate material security to ensure a decent life can we rekindle the enthusiasm of young people to be mothers.
Flatly. These four peculiar phenomena are witnesses of the changes of the times and the vane of future development. The challenges they pose are both inevitable for urban development and a guide for us to think about the future. As a member of this era, we have an important responsibility not only to be observers of change, but also to be agents of change.