Entering 2024, a new trend has emerged on the island of Taiwan.
Since January, the popularity of the term "severance of diplomatic relations" on online platforms in Taiwan has increased significantly, and the total number of mentions has increased compared with the previous monthThat's nearly a twofold increase
A trigger point for the high heat is that of the Taiwan authoritiesThe fourth round of "severance of diplomatic relations".
January,Nauru, a Pacific island nationAnnouncing the "severance of diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, so far8 years "severed diplomatic relations" with 10 countriesThe so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" of the Taiwan authorities remain12 pcs。WhileGuatemalaand other countries have also signaled that they want to "sever diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities.
What does "severing diplomatic relations" mean for Taiwan?
Standing at a new historical juncture, we can see more clearly when we look back at the beginning and end of every "tide of severing diplomatic relations" of the Taiwan authoritiesThe general trend, and see more clearly where we are todayHistorical orientation
To answer these questions, Tan first mined a set of open-source data and counted the number of countries that "broke off diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities every year.
It can be seen that since the founding of New China, the Taiwan authorities have gone through four rounds of "severance of diplomatic relations." And the prelude to these four rounds of "severing diplomatic relations" was the founding of the People's Republic of ChinaInitial stage
From October 1949 to March 1950,Half a yeartime, successively14 countriesThe number of "countries with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities within one yearIt plummeted to 38 countries
It is worth noting that this14 pcsCountries that have "severed diplomatic relations" have a distinctive characteristic.
They basically "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities before establishing diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China.
You must know that in the early days of the founding of New China, it was not that no country maintained a wait-and-see attitude towards us, but from the very beginning, New China established a principleIn order to establish diplomatic relations with New China, it is necessary to first "sever diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities.
To establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China, it is necessary to first sever relations with the Taiwan authorities
Today, we have already heard the news that a country will first "sever diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities and then establish or resume diplomatic relations with ChinaCommonplaceThe seeds of the one-China principle behind this have been planted at the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China.
On the basis of this principle, in the 70s of the last century, the Taiwan authorities ushered in the first peak of "severing diplomatic relations."
From the perspective of the long historical cycle, the first round of "severance of diplomatic relations" is one of the important nodes on the road to zero for the Taiwan authorities to "countries with diplomatic relations."
It can be seen that in 1950, the number of "countries with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities accounted for the proportion of the number of UN member statesUp to 63%.
By 1978, alreadyplummeted to 15%.
The background of this transformation was a major event in the history of international relations in 1971.
In 1971,Multi-countryInitiating a joint proposal to put forward will"Restoration of the legitimate rights of the People's Republic of China in the United Nations".issues were on the agenda of the 26th session of the United Nations General Assembly. This proposal was later known as UNGA Resolution 2758.
General Assembly resolution 2758 has not been without its challenges.
In order to prevent the passage of UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, the United States, Australia, Japan and other countries submitted a proposal, which means that the restoration of the legitimate seat of New China in the United Nations is a major issue, so it must be approved by two-thirds of all member states. In the end, the proposal did not pass.
After some twists and turns, in the end, the United Nations General Assembly toThere were 76 votes to 35, with 17 abstentionsAs a result, General Assembly resolution 2758 was adopted, expelling the representative of the Taiwan authorities to the United Nations from the United Nations.
Resolution 2758 of the United Nations General Assembly has completely resolved the political, legal and procedural issues for the whole of China, including TaiwanRepresentation in the United NationsThe issue of consolidating the one-China principle in the international community.
At the same time, UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 also resolved the issue of Taiwan's so-called "international status". Taiwan in addition to being part of China,There is no other status under international law
General Assembly resolution 2758 in both English and Chinese
After the adoption of General Assembly Resolution 2758, it becameThe most important basis for international law to defend the one-China principleIt has become a "tight spell" for external interference forces and "** elements". Since then, almost every country that has established diplomatic relations with China has included UNGA Resolution 2758 in the communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations with China.
Looking back now, of the 76 votes in favour of General Assembly resolution 2758, three votes were particularly noteworthy.
As early as 1964, France withstood the pressure of the United States and the West, "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, and established diplomatic relations with ChinaWestern powersMediumThe firstCountries that have formal diplomatic relations with China.
The other two, Italy and Canada, were also proposed in General Assembly resolution 2758The year beforeHe chose to "sever diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, thus opening the prelude to the first round of "severing diplomatic relations."
In 1971 and 1972 alone, countries that "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities were notUp to 27
Among them are Japan and Australia, which have tried to thwart General Assembly resolution 2758.
The first round of "severing diplomatic relations" lasted until 1979. In 1979, although only one country "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, there wereSymbolic
This country, that isUnited States。Although the United States** did not vote in favor of General Assembly Resolution 2758, the trend is irreversible.
The year in which the United States "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities caused a stir on the islandThere was an uproar。The fact that "the United States is unreliable" that we often say today has already been confirmed in the first round of the "wave of severing diplomatic relations" of the Taiwan authorities.
Of course, the more important significance is that the first round of "severance of diplomatic relations" expanded the international recognition of the People's Republic of China as the only legitimate China.
This has also drawn a red line for the future of the two sides of the strait to move toward reunification, and whoever violates the one-China principle and undermines the process of peaceful reunification will be couldBear the cost。The second round of "severing diplomatic relations" stems from the temptation of the red line.
In 1988, ** came to power and served as the leader of the Taiwan region. At this time, the Taiwan authorities were "countries with diplomatic relations".Only 22 remained
Faced with this situation, ** no longer adheres to the one-China principle and begins to introduce the so-called"Pragmatic diplomacy" and "flexible diplomacy".Idea.
In terms of specific actions, ** began to visit "countries with diplomatic relations" and "non-diplomatic relations" as the leader of the Taiwan region, and at the same time tried to rely on economic strength to make breakthroughs and expand "diplomatic space". In the 90s of the last century, the number of "countries with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities increased to a time30 pcs
The red line was crossed in 1995PinnacleIn this year, ** went to the United States for a so-called "unofficial, private visit". This move, sufferedHead on head
China immediately recalled its ambassador to the United States, which is rare in the history of Sino-American exchanges. Not only that, after the visit, the Chinese People's Liberation Army held it one after anotherTwo roundsLarge-scale exercises.
ChineseCounter actions, sounding the alarm for external interference forces and "** elements." Whoever dares to sabotage the process of cross-strait reunification will be against all the Chinese people.
After the exercises, the United States ** passedVarious channelsCommunicate with the Chinese sideRepeat the instructionsThe United States will adhere to the one-China principle.
At the same time as expanding the so-called "diplomatic space," the Taiwan authorities soon fell into a second "crisis of severing diplomatic relations."
There is a prominent feature of this round of "severance of diplomatic relations," which the Taiwan authorities have calledAll important "countries with diplomatic relations" have severed diplomatic relations with it
In 1990, Saudi Arabia "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, and since then, inMiddle EastThe so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authoritiesZero
In 1992, South Korea "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, and since then, throughout the countryAsiaThe so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authoritiesZero
After the end of this round of "severance of diplomatic relations," apart from the Vatican, the Taiwan authorities will no longer have any "friends" of developed countries. Major countries and important countries in the region are almost the same as the Taiwan authoritiesThere is no such thing as "diplomatic relations".
The following picture is the "diplomatic legacy" left to his successor when he left office.
In 2000, the "countries with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities covered only four regions: Latin America, Africa, the Pacific, and Europe.
Among these countries, the Taiwan authorities attach the most importance to thisLatin American and Pacific countries
At that time, there was a Latin American regionNearly halfAll of them are "countries with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities. There are also in the PacificMore than 30%.The country is a "country with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities.
In order to maintain "diplomatic relations" in this region, in 2000, the ** authorities began to engage"Beacon diplomacy" and "money diplomacy".On the one hand, it is an all-out attack on "diplomacy".ShockThe one-China principle, on the other hand, beginsExport a lot of moneyMaintain the stability of "countries with diplomatic relations".
The Taiwan authorities even made a special "donation."More than $200 millionEstablishment of the "Central American Economic Development**".
However, it is worth noting that the more we try to "consolidate the state" and the more we want to expand the so-called "diplomatic space", the faster the "countries with diplomatic relations" will be lost.
After 2000, there were three cycles of governance in the Taiwan region, but two more rounds of "severance of diplomatic relations" were ushered in.
The third round is:From 2000 to 2008During the period of his administration, he engaged in the so-called "beacon diplomacy" and threw it away6 pcs"Countries with diplomatic relations".
The fourth round is2016 to 2024During the period when Tsai Ing-wen was in power, she began to vainly increase her "international status" and lose it10 pcs"Countries with diplomatic relations".
In the past eight years, the Taiwan authorities have ushered in the fourth round of "severance of diplomatic relations," and the "countries with diplomatic relations" have lost an average of one every year, and this rate has not shown the slightest downward trend.
If you analyze it carefully, you will find that the regions where these countries have "severed diplomatic relations" are located:
The last 8 yearsWhether it is Latin America or the Pacific region, the Taiwan authorities used to have the most stable "diplomatic relations" in the same placeThere was a loosening
It can be seen that the Taiwan authorities' "countries with diplomatic relations" in Latin America and the Taiping region have been very stable for a period of time.
Latin America has seen a decrease of only two in the previous 16 years, while the Pacific region has increased by one. The logic behind it is not difficult to understand that these two regions, one is the "backyard" of the United States, and the other is the first of the United States.
2. The location of the three-island chain.
Nevertheless, in the last eight years, both Latin America and the Pacific have existedNearly half of the countriesHe chose to "sever diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities.
China is smashing the external factors and "** forces" that undermine reunification little by little.
Just like the profound meaning contained in our overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era:
We will persist in opposing interference by external forces, smashing the "best conspiracy", resolutely struggle against the acts of playing the "Taiwan card" and "using Taiwan to contain China", consolidate the pattern of the international community adhering to the one-China principle, and create a pattern for advancing the great cause of reunificationA more favorable external environment
In the face of this trend, the United States has tried to block it. After the three Latin American countries -- Panama, Dominica, and El Salvador -- successively "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, the United States adopted various methods to obstruct this process.
Temptation to woo。After the rumors of "severing diplomatic relations", the vice president of the United States emphasized that the American countries are "one family", called for the joint shaping of the freedom and prosperity of the Americas, and promised that "if you do more, we will help more", and also proposed that the United States will increase support for Latin American countries in terms of economy and energy.
Pressure and intimidation。After El Salvador "severed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, the United States issued a statement saying that this decision would affect not only El Salvador, but also the economic health and security of the entire American region, and also threatened to reassess relations between the United States and El Salvador.
Recall Ambassadors。After the "severance of diplomatic relations," a spokesman for the United States came forward and said that the ambassador to Dominica, the ambassador to El Salvador, and the chargé d'affaires a.i. in Panama had been recalled to hold consultations on the decision that "countries with diplomatic relations" no longer recognize Taiwan.
Sanctions are announced。In response to the "severance of diplomatic relations" practices of relevant countries, the United States will consider taking severe punitive measures.
These actions have not stopped the trend of "severing diplomatic relations" between Latin America and the Taiwan authorities. This wave of "severing diplomatic relations" has even spread to Pacific countries.
After El Salvador, the countries that "broke off diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities arePacific country Solomon Islands
In order to prevent the Solomon Islands from "severing diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, the United States has not spared any diplomatic resources and has almost taken them outAll diplomacy
This is the same as that of the Solomon IslandsGeographical locationIt has a lot to do with it.
This area happens to be under the mechanism of the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" between the United States, Japan, India and AustraliaCentral location, the east-west direction is able to contain the United States in the PacificClause.
2. U.S. military bases deployed on the third island chain.
Naturally, this has become the frontier position of the United States and its allies in "using Taiwan to contain China."
In 2019, after learning that the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands had the idea of establishing diplomatic relations with China, the United StatesFrequent hits**To the Solomon Islands' **,Threats of pressure
The then US Secretary of State even openly stated that Washington would use various toolsBlockSolomon Islands established diplomatic relations with China.
After failing to prevent the Solomon Islands from "severing diplomatic relations", the United States has also made even greater changes in diplomacy, and the senior US ** is even in the lapseFirst visit to the Solomon Islands after 80 years
The U.S. embassy in the Solomon Islands is also closing30 years laterReopened
The U.S. Embassy in the Solomon Islands opens
As a result, after the United States thought that it was refocusing on the South Pacific island countries, on the contraryAccelerateushered in the "wave of severance of diplomatic relations" of Pacific island countries.
Nauru is the latest South Pacific island country to "sever diplomatic relations".
Compared with the past, this time the island's ** description of Nauru's "severance of diplomatic relations" has emerged with some new statements - "a surprising 'diplomatic' turn" and "caught off guard". The person in charge of the so-called foreign affairs department of the Taiwan authorities is also in a moodExtraordinarily intense, saying that he was very angry about the "severance of diplomatic relations".
An important reason for the fierce reaction is that China's crackdown on external interference forces has been unprecedentedly firm and effective.
In the face of Nauru's "severance of diplomatic relations", the United States has hardly taken any further interventions. Outsiders are unreliable, and once again it has been confirmed.
In January, the New York Times, citing a pre-election poll on the island, pointed out that nearly 70 percent of respondents do not believe that the United States is a "trustworthy country," an increase of about 10 percent from 2021.
And behind this, there is another detail that is particularly noteworthy.
Lord Tan noticed that in the communiqué announcing the "severance of diplomatic relations" between Nauru and the Taiwan authorities, the following passage was mentioned:
In accordance with UN Resolution 2758, Nauru** recognizes the People's Republic of China** as representing the whole of ChinaUniquely legitimate**, Taiwan is Chinese territoryIndivisiblepart. Nauru will sever its "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan with immediate effectNot anymoreAny official relations with TaiwanNot carried outAny official correspondence.
Relevant professionals shared with Tan Zhu that in the statement of "severing diplomatic relations", the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 was quoted, which is still among the "countries with diplomatic relations" that have announced the "severance of diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authoritiesThe first one
In the face of this "first time", the American Institute in Taiwan announced the "severance of diplomatic relations" in Nauru on the second dayMisrepresentation of intentThe true connotation of Resolution 2758 is to falsely claim that Resolution 2758 "does not determine Taiwan's status" and does not preclude any country from establishing "diplomatic" relations with Taiwan.
Obviously, Nauru deliberately chose to refer to UNGA Resolution 2758 in the statement of "severance of diplomatic relations", which represents an act of undermining the process of cross-strait reunification at the level of international law and international systemDimensionality reduction strike
Each time it is reiterated, the "tightening mantra" on the "**" will also be tightened. EspeciallyFor the first timeIn the communiqué on the "severance of diplomatic relations", it was proposed that this demonstration effect would be given to the international communityDeliver a strong signal
During his tenure, Guatemala's new president has repeatedly stated that if elected, he will develop relations with China.
The interference of external forces and the provocation of "** forces" are accelerating the arrival of cross-strait reunification.
It is worth noting that in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the ranking of "external interference forces" is before "** forces."
The meaning of this message is very clear: It is only a matter of time before the so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities are zeroed, and a more favorable external environment has already taken shape.
The process of peaceful reunification is slowly being mapped out in the scale of time.
*: Yuyuan Tan Tian.