According to people familiar with the matter, Donald Trump is considering scaling back his commitments to some NATO members and pushing Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war with Russia if he returns to power next year.
In a possible move for a second term, Trump's allies essentially discussed a two-tier NATO alliance in which Article 5 — which calls for mutual defense against any attacked member — would apply only to countries that meet defense spending targets, who asked not to be identified, warned that no policy decisions have been finalized, according to people familiar with the matter.
Trump's advisers also discussed bringing Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian Vladimir Putin around the negotiating table as early as possible in a potential second term. These moves, if continued, would upend decades of U.S. policy and give rise to a defense alliance that has shaped European security since the Cold War.
One of Trump's advisers said the pledge to cut off U.S. aid could help bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, while the threat of increased U.S. aid could motivate Russia. Advisers, including Larry Kudlow and Robert O'Brien, have also publicly pushed for tougher sanctions against Russia's central bank to sway Putin.
The movement is not currently negotiating with Russian or Ukrainian intermediaries, in part because it could violate the Logan Act, a U.S. law that prohibits private entities from negotiating on their behalf.
"Article 5 – an attack on one ally will be seen as a commitment to attack all allies – is at the heart of NATO," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels on Thursday. He added that "any suggestion to protect and defend all our allies there undermines the security of all of us and endangers our soldiers and personnel." ”
Speaking ahead of a meeting of defense ministers of the alliance, Stoltenberg said: "We should not take any path that shows that we are trying to separate Europe from North America - the strength lies in the accession of Europe and North America to NATO together." ”
Tensions between Trump and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) resurfaced this week when he recalled telling a member state that he would make Russia "do whatever they want" if it didn't meet the EU's defense spending targets.
Joe Biden and European allies condemned the warning, which informed sources said referred to a conversation with former German leader Angela Merkel. During his tenure, Trump pushed NATO countries to meet defense spending targets of at least 2 percent of gross domestic product, with 18 of the 31 member states expected to participate this year.
Trump's senior adviser Jason Miller said in response to a question: "Trump has allowed our allies to increase NATO spending by demanding that they pay, but Joe Biden has made them take advantage of American taxpayers." He added that the former ** never really took action to dissolve the alliance during his tenure.
In the midst of wars in the Middle East and Europe, as well as tensions with Taiwan, Trump is ready to influence US foreign policy from the sidelines in a way unprecedented in modern politics. This has allowed U.S. allies to prepare for his possible return, with his supporters in Congress trying to hide from his wrath. With the war in Ukraine approaching two years, Trump has taken the chance to approve the American aid bill to Congress this week, and Republican leaders in the House of Representatives heeded his call to reject the bill despite enough bipartisan votes.
Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said: "He didn't negotiate or set foreign policy with other countries. "But they're reacting to the potential for change when he's elected." ”
If Trump returns to office, he may abandon Taiwan. A spokesman for the Beijing office that handles Taiwan affairs said on January 31: "The United States will always pursue the United States first, and Taiwan can turn from a pawn to a discarded pawn at any time." ”
Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Merkel's successor in Germany, said this week that Germany would meet the alliance's spending target for this year, which was set after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Before the shock of the war, Merkel worked hard to explain to Trump that this level of military spending was not politically viable.
According to people familiar with these interactions, during his tenure, Trump rebuked the former German chancellor in a number of conversations. One of them said that in the course of the talks, the former ** told Merkel that he would not be responsible for what happened if Germany did not pay.
Trump's ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, recalled in an interview: "The Germans have a budget surplus, but refuse to pay 2% of NATO obligations." "When you don't pay, you're the one that undermines NATO. ”