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The Pexels study found that the U.S. urban population is declining due to a variety of factors, including industrial decline, declining birth rates, and climate change. Written by |Translated by Rachel Nuwer |Ma Yiyi.
Proofreading |Winter kitesThousands of cities in the U.S. could become sparsely smoky "ghost towns" by 2100。According to a study published in Nature Cities, the population of about 15,000 cities in the United States could be reduced to just a fraction of what it is today, with the exception of Hawaii and Washington, D.C., expected to be affected by the decline.
Half of the cities are depopulated"Our current urban planning is all about growthBut nearly half of the U.S. urban population is declining," the authors of the study.
1. Sybil Derrible, an urban engineer at the University of Illinois at Chicago, said, "This suggests that we need to move away from growth planning and transform into urban planning and engineering." ”
Drebold and his colleagues were originally commissioned by the Illinois Department of Transportation to analyze how the city is changing over time and the transportation challenges that depopulated areas will face. But as the research deepened, they realizedAll cities in the U.S. use this type of **, not just big cities like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. "Most of the studies focus on big cities, and it's like a leopard in a tube, and you don't see the whole picture. Uttara Sutradhar, lead author of the study and Ph.D. candidate in civil engineering at the University of Illinois at Chicago, said.
The authors analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the American Community Survey from 2000-2020 to identify current demographic trends in more than 24,000 cities and model future trends in nearly 32,000 cities. They substituted these trends into five "shared socioeconomic pathways" that simulate how populations, societies, and economies could change by 2100 depending on the degree of global warming.
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* The results show that by 2100, about half of the cities in the United States, including Cleveland, Ohio, Buffalo, New York, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, were locatedThe population could decrease by 12 to 23 percent。Some cities include Louisville, Kentucky, New Haven, Connecticut, and Syracuse, New YorkAlthough not at the moment, it is likely that there will be a depopulation in the future。"While Texas' population is growing dramatically today, if you look at Michigan 100 years ago, you might be thinking that Detroit would become the largest city in the U.S. today," Dr. Drebold said.
The authors found thatThe Northeast and Midwest are likely to face the worst depopulation。By state, Vermont and West Virginia will be hit the hardest, with urban populations reduced by more than 80 percent. Illinois, Mississippi, Kansas, New Hampshire and Michigan would also lose about three-quarters of their urban populations.
An analysis of the current trend shows thatAbout 43 per cent of the more than 24,000 municipalities are declining in their inhabitants, but about 40 per cent are also growing, including major cities such as New York, Chicago, Phoenix, and Houston. But in general, by 2100, the areas where population growth is most likely to occur are in the south or west.
***pixabayMove away from growth-based planningThe study did not analyze the drivers behind the trend, but Sutradar saidA series of complex variables that vary from place to place may be behind rising housing costs, industrial recession, declining birth rates, differing state tax levels, climate change, and so on
Justin Hollander, an urban planning scholar at Tufts University who was not involved in the study, commented that the new study was methodological sound and the results were original: "I have never seen a national study that looks so far ahead." "StillHe warned that it would be "reckless" to make a concrete ** about such a distant future, given the uncertainty of the future
However, this article calls attention to the future of overall population decline, and has detailed data to back it up, which Holland appreciates. "It's not just Detroit's a problem, it's the whole world," he saidDepopulation is everywhere, and this article rightly asks cities to face up to this fact and prepare for a possible future
The authors hope that their** will be a wake-up call for policymakersMove away from growth-based planning and instead find local solutions for cities that are likely to depopulate in the future。"We shouldn't see it as a problem, but as an opportunity to rethink our planning," says Drebb, "and it's an opportunity to innovate."
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