With 32 years of waiting, Japan has ushered in a CPI of more than 4% in 2023, and it seems that it is getting closer and closer to the abyss of inflation.
This phenomenon, if you put it in the past, we can't believe it. However, it is irresistible that Japan's wage growth has climbed to 5% and appears to be a remarkable achievement on the way out of inflation. And at this moment, we have to think about how the path of China's economy will evolve compared to Japan and the United States.
Standing in the present, we can't help but askHow will undoubtedly inflation affect Japan's economic future? At the same time, in the face of the impact of inflation and the trend of the Japanese economyHow can we deepen our understanding of the future direction of China's economy?
With the increasing changes in the global economic landscape, Japan, which has been on a par with the United States, has made a series of tough punches on the issue of dealing with inflationLet go of the hands and feet to continue to stimulate, the high wages and remuneration of enterprises and the cost borne by consumers have formed a continuous alternating cycle of "wage-inflation".
Although this model clearly draws on the experience of the United States, its implicit signal is that between deflation and continuous adjustment, it is an inevitable requirement for economic operation.
From the perspective of China's economy, are we an outlier?
In the face of inflation trends in the United States and Japan, we are undoubtedly on a very different economic trajectory.
As the world's second largest economy, China is not only different from the United States and Japan in terms of economic development stage and development model, but also has essential differences in its economic decision-making mechanism and management of internal and external balance.
At present, China has made a unique trade-off between risk prevention and development, choosing to seek stability in the medium and long-term trend, and more prudent and long-term vision in the prevention and management of inflation.
In recent years, the Japanese economy has shown signs of a shift to "profit maximization", with corporate profit margins rising and gradually rising.
Despite the controversy surrounding this development, it is undeniable that this paradigm change in Japan is a manifestation of its economic strategic adjustment.
In contrast, China has taken a prudent approach to economic development and has been able to respond to various risks prudently.
While chasing the limit of profits, Japan's inflation problem has not been effectively controlled. Despite the various policy tools at its disposal, how to deal with the changes in the global economic environment is still a major issue.
China, on the other hand, is still adhering to a prudent monetary policy, making steady progress and seeking truth, reducing the total social debt ratio as much as possible, and grasping the scale of preventing and defusing financial risks while maintaining stable economic growth.
Among them, China has an extremely strict grasp of the "quantitative policy of money", which has led to a moderate increase in the demand of the whole society.
In the current global economic model, where countries are pursuing a debt-driven economic growth model, China is more focused on risk prevention than excessive debt increases.
Today, the biggest difference between the core logic of China's economic growth and that of developed countries lies in its prudent attitude and precise grasp of debt. While China's economy can develop more steadily and deeply, we are also carefully balancing the balance between stable growth and risk prevention.
While most countries have chosen to continue to burn savings and accelerate the increase in debt, China has always adhered to the strategy of risk prevention and avoided excessive debt, which has gradually led to the gradual decline of China's economic growth.
Among the many stimulus policies, we have strictly focused on the "monetary policy", and in terms of monetary quantity policy, we have maintained strict supervision to avoid risks such as excessive lending, and this prudent strategy has made China's aggregate demand continue to be bad
In the face of such an environment, we can only use resources more prudently, the road ahead is difficult, but we have always been strong in China in the stability of seeking progress, we know that by making good use of the resources in hand, we can make more achievements in this game
Looking at the international community, the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries stick to the camp of the United States, and they can deal with economic problems by burning money and stimulating the economyThey can easily bet that the United States will win and China will lose, but we in China cannot expect to do so
Japan's CPI of more than 4% and wage growth continue to rise, which is a measure to actively respond to economic pressures in order to get out of the inflation dilemma.
However, looking at the world, China has shown a unique posture on the road of economic development that is different from that of other countries, which is to stabilize the status quo and guard against the future, focusing on the present and taking into account the long-term.
In the context of global economic turmoil, debt has undoubtedly become a key driver of economic growth, and how to properly manage debt is also a test of the economic wisdom of all countries.
At present, China's economy is on the road of risk prevention, preferring to slow down economic growth in the short term rather than feverishly accumulating debt, and only when internal pressure is too great, or when US external demand collapses, will a full stimulus take effect. So, in the future, will China need to use more powerful measures to deal with the high inflationary pressures? This will lead us to think further.
In any case, resisting the pressure of inflation will be a challenge that China's economy must face in the coming period, and how to maintain the sustained and healthy development of China's economy under the tremendous pressure of the global economic environment will have a decisive impact on our future.
Therefore,In the short term, how to properly manage the debt economy will become an important issue for China's economy in the short termFebruary** Dynamic Incentive Program