Wen Amber Food & Wine Society.
Author |Hongyi.
At the banquet table full of guests, 40-year-old Lao Liu's hand holding the wine bottle was raised and lowered, and the nervousness of repeated questions turned into a red of shame and quickly crawled all over his face that was no longer young, and finally turned into a slightly embarrassed smile, "This wine is not cheap, everyone should try it." ”
A few minutes ago, Lao Liu opened a bottle of liquor given to him by a friend, the name has never been heard, but he was praised by his friend:High-end, delicious, and noodles.
In the wine game of middle-aged people, liquor is the protagonist who is inseparable. The old ** took it out, and was noticed by the people at the table, and the questions continued:
Lao Liu, what kind of wine is this, I don't seem to have seen it? ”
Looking at the packaging, I thought it was Moutai, but I didn't expect it to be not! ”
Eh, you can introduce to everyone, what grade is this wine? ”
At first, Lao Liu was going to bring Moutai directly from home, but after being persuaded by his friends, Lao Liu thought that he had never seen the world, so he brought this new bottle of wine. Now it seems that he is not the only one who has never seen the world.
Because he didn't know about this wine, he couldn't answer the questions of the people at the table, so he could only start a new topic. At the same time, I secretly made up my mind that I would no longer believe the words of that friend.
Being misunderstood is the fate of the expressor, and being valued is the fate that liquor as a social currency cannot be avoided.
Different from Moutai and Wuliangye, which have long been firmly positioned in the high-end position, more new liquors represented by Shijiufang must not only ensure good taste, but also "protect" the most important face of the core group of the Mesozoic in order to truly "get ahead" in the market.
It is somewhat similar to Jiang Xiaobai, who is "immortal in youth and drinking a glass of wine", that Shijiufang also loves to promote the brand sentiment of "meeting friends with wine and making friends". It's just that the target is no longer young people, but the Mesozoic generation, which obviously has more demand for liquor consumption.
In the matter of making friends, Jiang Xiaobai chose to print the "heart-to-heart copywriting" on the bottle body, looking like a drifting bottle to make friends, while Wanton Jiufang prefers face to face, which is exactly the same as the E person who treats i people as toys.
Otherwise, it will not take a lot of effort to open 2,000 franchise stores, invite users to taste wine, and socialize by the way.
Not to mention anything else, at least in terms of crowd positioning and actual actions, the company has achieved the "unity of knowledge and action".
Although it is a young liquor, it is not like some new liquor brands like to forcibly integrate into young people, but Da Ra Ra admits that his target is the Mesozoic. At the same time, it also hopes to touch the young market.
From the perspective of young people who especially hate the random labeling of brands, this is actually a more "ingenious" approach.
You see, one is that you don't admit that you love to drink but insist on flaunting that "young people love to drink", and the other is that you are not so interested but people say "welcome, not only that." ”
But if you think a little about the hearts of young people who have already been overwhelmed by "marriage kidnapping", "family kidnapping" and so on, you will find how "amiable" the latter is.
What's more, those who like to make friends while drinking liquor are mostly middle-aged.
It should be needless to say how much contemporary young people hate the wine table culture that revolves around baijiu. But the arsenic of B and the honey of A. How many middle-aged people have long been accustomed to talking about business and making friends at the wine table, if there is no such scene, how many "great projects" will have nowhere to be sold, and how many ordinary workers will be affected ...... jobsDon't dare to think about it.
The scene alone is not enough, the wine series of the Wanton Jiufang are all names that are very martial arts when they are heard by people in the rivers and lakes, chivalry, chivalry, grandmaster, Taidou and Peacock Ling, etc., and they almost printed the big words "What we sell is not wine, but feelings" directly on the outer packaging.
The concept is there, the scene is there, but what about the most critical taste?
According to the evaluation of the Grandmaster series by Douyin blogger "Hua Ge Yan Liquor Institute", although this wine imitates Moutai in appearance, the standard is indeed the national standard level of soy sauce wine, and the production process cellar method has also applied for a patent.
In terms of taste, it smells rich in sauce aroma, drinks sauce with outstanding flavor, appropriate thickness, clean aftertaste, and overall taste harmony. This is basically the same as the feedback from real users in the comment section.
In this way, coupled with the community called "Forty-Nine Family" that echoed the initial crowdfunding of 49 people, the company is also unique in the liquor market, and there is no market for it.
Judging from the "brilliant record" of the launch of Shijiufang in 2015, the revenue exceeding 2 billion in 2020, and the valuation of more than 8 billion in the capital market, the consumption strength of the Mesozoic generation is indeed much stronger than the "search" young people who are inseparable from Pinduoduo online and offline are inseparable.
Unfortunately, the good times were short-lived.
In 2021 and 2022, the revenue of Shijiufang will decline year by year, reaching only 1.8 billion yuan and 600 million yuan respectively. Last year, the closure of some offline stores also made the brand's marketing model questioned, and it was framed as a "pyramid scheme".
Different from other liquor brands, the company does not adopt a traditional distributor model, but circle marketing.
To put it more bluntly, it is hierarchical sales: the founder Zhang Chuanzong and the 49 co-founders are the first level, and each of them takes out 100,000 yuan as start-up capital; The rudder founded by the 49 original shareholders is the second stage, and each rudder develops 200 people; The terminal store is the first, and a terminal store develops 30 people.
Not only does it sound complicated, but it's not easy to operate. Take the purchase link that is closely related to consumers as an example, if you want to use *** to buy the wine of the Nine Shops, you need to pay 20,000 yuan first, 10,000 yuan is a deposit, and the remaining 10,000 yuan can be used to buy wine.
Developer, pay deposit, ......Putting these words together, it is difficult for even the most obtuse person not to be sensitive to MLM.
The basic characteristics of pyramid selling have been defined in the Regulations on the Prohibition of Pyramid Selling:Entrance fee, head-pulling, team remuneration. Although it is not clear whether the company is paid by the team, it accounts for two of the three, and it is no wonder that the outside world has questioned that it will be a "pyramid scheme".
Even, at the beginning, Shijiufang did not have its own winery. The bottle mentioned above by the review blogger is produced by Pengcheng Distillery in Moutai Town, Guizhou Province.
It was not until April 2022 that the Lanjiawan project of the 10,000-ton liquor base of Shijiufang officially started. At that time, it had been 7 years since the establishment of the brand.
Miraculously, even if it is a "rubbing" MLM, the company has successfully pushed the brand to the market, and even attracted many celebrities in the industry. On its official website, Yang Liping, a world-class dance artist known for her peacock dance, served as the chief artistic officer of the company.
I have to admit that the method of "quasi-pyramid marketing" may be ancient, but it is really easy to use after changing to the new shell of "circle marketing".
The revenue of 2 billion yuan in 2020 gave the founder Zhang Chuanzong great confidence, and he publicly stated that the number of stores in Shijiufang will reach 5,000 by 2025, with a sales revenue of more than 10 billion yuan, and the listing will be completed.
Whose youth has no regrets, and which liquor seller has not been beaten.
Judging from the current financing situation that has stagnated in 2022 and the annual revenue that has been declining year by year, the company has not developed as smoothly as Zhang Chuanzong expected. In particular, when the time has come to 2024, there are not many days left for him to achieve his goals.
From the perspective of external factors, although the well-known brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, and Yanghe still stabilized their performance, the entire industry is still facing the pressure of high inventory. Data from the China Liquor Industry Association from January to May last year showed that 48% of distributors said that inventory pressure was high.
However, this is actually an indiscriminate pressure on all liquor brands, and for the failure to continue the strong momentum in the early days of its establishment, it is more necessary to find out the reasons from its own level.
One of the most prominent problems lies inThe brand awareness is insufficient, and the consumption scene cannot be rolled out.
The price of about 500 yuan at every turn is doomed to make it impossible for wine lovers to afford to consume ration wine on a daily basis. Even if the Mesozoic generation, which is not bad for money, will buy it home and drink it every day, if the brand wants to expand sales, it will inevitably return to business banquets, gifts, wedding banquets and other consumption scenarios.
But the Chinese who love to "fill face" in the banquet scene will inevitably give preference to those more well-known and high-grade liquor brands, rather than new brands that may not be heard of by many people.
Coincidentally, the target of the Wanton Jiufang is the middle-aged people who are most concerned about the specifications of tobacco and alcohol at the banquet among the three generations of the old, middle and young people.
As the "mascot" of the big family, the elderly have lost a certain right to speak; Young people don't even want to hold their own wedding banquets, let alone go to the banquet to be "generous"; Only middle-aged people, even if they have a mortgage and a car loan on their shoulders and can't take out a few steel hammers in their pockets, they still have to have Moutai in their left hand and Zhonghua in their right hand. The main theme is an immediate scenery that is enjoyable first, and the sadness behind the ground is a little later.
Just as Lao Liu at the beginning of the article will use Moutai as the first choice for banquet wine, it is not too likely to let a middle-aged man who loves to save face give up Moutai and choose the Shijiufang that cannot support face due to lack of popularity.
It is difficult to increase popularityThe "link to the high-quality soy sauce wine resources of Moutai Town" originated from the Shijiufang has little competitive advantage, and there are very few first-class channels to distribute goods "mixed faces".
There are many brands with the same soy sauce wine resources on the market, and brands such as the old Xijiu, which appear in the supermarket channel and dealer channel all the year round, will inevitably be preferred by consumers who care more about the brand.
is also because most people have the inherent impression that "there is no such place" in their hearts, even if the taste has been recognized by people who understand wine like "Brother Hua Wine Research Institute", they can only be evaluated as "not suitable for gifts".
Consumer demand is already limited, and if other brands are chosen, the competition opportunities of Shijiufang will naturally be small.
In addition to that,The controversial "quasi-pyramid scheme" model has also compressed the imagination space of the company to a certain extent.
Although the sales model of layered and prepaid membership dues is more "asset-light", it also ignores the general consumer market with greater imagination due to excessive emphasis on community building. It may be efficient to target the Mesozoic money bag with a clear goal, but the accumulation of occasional needs of ordinary consumers may not be unattractive.
No matter how small the mosquito legs are, they are also meat, and if there are more mosquitoes, they can still buzz the brand with popularity, why not?
Whether it is Jiang Xiaobai or Shijiufang, they are all trying to tell a new story that transcends tradition in the liquor market. But as it turned out, it wasn't easy.
Jiang Xiaobai took the road of "Internet celebrity", but he failed to "become popular" because of his rare taste; Shijiufang did a good job of "unity of knowledge and action" for the Mesozoic Era, but it was trapped in popularity and failed to support their "face".
Based on the estimated trend of the liquor industry in 2024 given by Zhongtai**, Guoxin**, Guotai Junan, etc., the liquor industry may still have some pressure in the future, but the probability of systemic risk is low; The industry is expected to continue the recovery trend, but the competitive landscape will be concentrated in the head enterprises.
Whether it is the goal of 10 billion yuan or the head brand that is in the limelight, there is not much time left for the company to make up for its "face".