The gap between China and the United States has widened, and China's GDP will fall to 17 in 2023$89 trillion, but the US GDP has soared.
The gap between China and the United States is getting wider! China's GDP will fall to 1789 trillion, while the US GDP grew significantly.
The report card for 2022 has come out, and the GDP growth rate for the whole of 2022 is 52%, while not the best in the world, is also better than most countries.
Because of the Spring Festival in the first quarter and the epidemic after that, this year's GDP growth was the least, only 45%。
But in the second quarter, it accelerated its growth rate, reaching 63%。In the third quarter, it fell again, falling to 49%, with a faster acceleration in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, with an average annual growth rate of 52%。
In fixed investment, it is expected that the fixed investment will be 503036 billion yuan by 2022, an increase of 3 percent year-on-year0%。In these figures, the amount of investment in infrastructure and industry has risen, respectively. 5% and 96%。From the perspective of the structure of the tertiary industry, economic growth is dominated by the secondary industry.
In addition, the most concerned real estate development investment**96% remains a major reason for the slowdown in fixed investment growth. In both cases, the area of commercial residential sales decreased by 85%, and commercial residential sales decreased by 65%。As a result, real estate is still a drag on investment.
From the perspective of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country will reach 471495 billion in 2022, an increase of 72%, and the city increased by 71 percent, and 8 percent in rural areas0%, showing that consumption plays a great role in driving the economy.
Looking at different consumer categories, retail sales of daily necessities rose by 58%, and the catering industry rose by 204%, while daily necessities rose by 109%。
Picture. However, it should be noted that in December next year, the national consumer index increased by 0 compared to the same period last year3%, which is the fourth annual month-on-month decline this year.
CPI is a key factor to measure consumer demand, from September 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI has gradually declined from September 2022, of which CPI in July 2023 is the first negative growth of the year, and in August it turned from negative to positive to 01%, but it fell back to 0% again in September, and negative growth for three consecutive months in October.
Obviously, raising the income of residents is necessary, not "stimulating consumption", because they don't need any stimulus at all, as long as they have enough money, they will start spending money, and when their income increases, they can better promote their consumption.
In terms of exports, exports are expected to continue to increase throughout 2023 due to the gradual improvement in demand in the global market.
It is worth pointing out that our country has undergone a great transformation in foreign trade. Taking 2022 as an example, the value of our exports to machinery and machinery products is 139 trillion yuan, an increase of 2 percent year-on-year9%, accounting for 58% of the total export value6%；During the same period, the export value of labor-intensive industries was 411 trillion yuan, about 17.7 percent.
In terms of these electronic and mechanical products, electric manned vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, solar cells and other "new three", the cumulative export value is 106 trillion yuan, more than 1 trillion yuan for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 299%。
In particular, the export of sedans has developed significantly in 2022, reaching 52210,000 units, an increase of 57 over the same period of the previous year4%。For the first time, it surpassed Japan to become the world's largest exporter of automobiles.
The export of new energy vehicles has a great role in promoting the rise of China. At present, China's electric passenger cars account for 3 3, of which, the annual export value is 17730,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 671%。
So, driven by this "troika", we have seen good news and bad news in 2022.
The good news is that China's new energy vehicles have become a new growth point, which is also good news.
Worryingly, property investment has yet to return to a positive pace of growth, and there has been no real recovery in spending.
In 2022, the GDP was 126 trillion yuan, and in RMB terms, the GDP continued to rise steadily, but at the average exchange rate for the whole year, the GDP fell to 1789 trillion.
If calculated in yuan, our GDP will fall by more than 100 billion in 2022 and 17 in 202389 trillion.
The main reason is the fluctuation of the currency, next year, the renminbi will depreciate by 4%, and then the GDP will fall.
However, the GDP of the United States will increase significantly in 2023, mainly due to the increase in dollar interest rates** and the fact that ordinary Americans have to spend more money to buy things in the face of inflation, which has led to an increase in consumer spending. In this way, the GDP of the United States will rise. Domestically, however, the CPI has been at a low level, so inflation has little impact on GDP growth.
The U.S. GDP is expected to exceed 27 trillion in 2023, driven by a stronger yuan and inflation, the U.S. economy will reach an all-time high in 2023, while the gap between China and the United States GDP will continue to widen.
However, this difference is the norm in the process of rising interest rates in the United States, and is more affected by currency movements.
In 2024, the United States will cut interest rates, which means that the RMB will continue to **, when the United States has no inflation, and there is no strong yuan, coupled with the recovery of investment, consumption and exports, China's GDP is likely to exceed 19 trillion in 2024, and the gap between China and the United States GDP will be further narrowed.
Overall, in the long run, the near-term movement of the renminbi will not have any impact on its future appreciation prospects, and it is only a matter of time before China's GDP surpasses that of the United States.
Therefore, we only need to continue to accelerate the adjustment of the industrial structure, increase investment in the middle and high-end, and move towards the direction of a technological power and a manufacturing country.
And I think that in this process, people's income will be even greater. Do you agree with that? Agree!
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