Text|Huaxia Energy Network.In 2023, the energy storage industry has experienced a "roller coaster" of heat and cold. At the beginning of the new year, the industry lists of various institutions have been released one after another, and the changes in seat rankings are particularly interesting.
Huaxia Energy Network learned that recently, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) announced the 2023 energy storage cell shipment ranking. The list shows that CATL (SZ: 300750), BYD (SZ: 002594), and EVE Lithium Energy (SZ: 300014) are among the top three, followed by Ruipu Lanjun (HK: 00666), Haichen Energy Storage, Guoxuan Hi-Tech (SZ: 002074) and Envision Power, Penghui Energy (SZ: 300438) and China Innovation Aviation (HK: 03931) tied for eighth, and Samsung SDI, a battery cell manufacturer from South Korea, was squeezed to tenth place.
Compared with 2022, the new list shows great changes, and the market pattern of energy storage cells has "changed".
What are the factors that affect the shipment and ranking of enterprises? How will the market pattern of energy storage cells change in the future? In response to the concerns of the industry, Huaxia Energy Network had an in-depth chat with Ye Mingyuan, senior analyst of energy storage at Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network.
As an authoritative ranking list in the industry, Ye Mingyuan introduced that SMM not only inquired about public information such as bidding and contract announcements, visited relevant energy storage cell manufacturers on the spot, but also referred to the shipment of battery cell materials and the research of related enterprises, and the tripartite information achieved cross-verification. This not only ensures the accuracy of the ranking, but also provides reference value for the changes in the industry.
"Compared with the 2022 list, there are two main changes this year. First, the ranking of Japanese and Korean battery cell companies has declined significantly; On the other hand, domestic 'dark horses' are gradually emerging. Ye Mingyuan introduced.
In 2022, there are two more companies in Japan and South Korea (mainly in the direction of ternary battery energy storage) (Samsung SDI and LG New Energy) on the list, and their positions are not bad, especially SDI (fifth), which is in the same echelon as EVE Lithium Energy and Ruipu Lanjun.
However, in 2023, affected by the trend of replacing ternary iron-lithium in the energy storage market, only SDI is left on the list, and the ranking has also slipped to the bottom of the team, and it is far behind by EVE Lithium Energy and Ruipu Lanjun in terms of shipments. LG, which was once very strong, fell out of the top 10 list.
In 2023, the SDI and LG energy storage cell markets will be mainly in the residential storage markets in Europe and the Americas, and some applications will be used in the large storage markets in Europe, the Americas and Australia. In addition, some scattered areas, such as Taiwan, China, and some regions in Southeast Asia, will also use their energy storage cells to do some energy storage projects. However, on the whole, the market share of ternary energy storage cells in Japan and South Korea will continue to shrink. Ye Mingyuan also told Huaxia Energy Network.
Compared with 2022, the list in 2023 has risen significantly for Haichen Energy Storage and Envision Power. In 2022, Haichen Energy Storage ranked eighth, and in 2023, it will be among the top five; Envision Power moved up from 10th to 7th place. In addition, China Innovation Airlines entered the top 10 for the first time.
Affected by the cold of the household storage market, the rankings of Peneng Technology and Penghui Energy will decline in 2023. Among them, Penghui Energy slipped from sixth to eighth, and Peneng Technology fell from ninth to top ten.
The decline in the ranking of domestic companies does not mean that their business has deteriorated, but that their competitors have developed too rapidly. This also indirectly shows that the overall development of the domestic energy storage industry in 2023 is indeed very hot. Ye Mingyuan said.
From the perspective of installed capacity data, official data from the National Energy Administration shows that by the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage projects that have been completed and put into operation across the country will reach 31.39 million kilowatts and 66.87 million kilowatt hours, with an average energy storage duration of 21 hour; In 2023, the newly installed capacity will be about 22.6 million kilowatts and 48.7 million kilowatt hours, an increase of more than 260% from the end of 2022 and nearly 10 times the installed capacity at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan.
There is also the same in the midst of change. Overall, the market position occupied by the top players has not changed significantly. In terms of market share, the top five have a market share of as high as 75%, and the market concentration is still increasing.
Among them, CATL is firmly at the top of the list, with a total shipment of more than 65GWh in 2023, once again having a faulty advantage; BYD and EVE both shipped more than 20GWh and maintained a certain share advantage; Ruipu Lanjun's market share also remained high.
It is worth mentioning that whether it is the large storage market or the household storage market, CATL's shipments are in the forefront. CATL's shipments of large storage cells are obvious to all, but its household storage business has not been counted in some shipment lists.
Ye Mingyuan revealed that while the energy storage business continues to expand, CATL has also subdivided its industries and handed over the company's household storage business to its subsidiary Xinneng'an. In 2023, the shipment of household storage cells of Xinneng'an will also reach the level of 4-5G, and the market ranking is also at the forefront.
The logic behind the ranking change is that survival of the fittest is the norm in business competition. So, what factors play a role behind the change in the ranking of battery cells?
Ye Mingyuan said that the primary factor must be the scale of production capacity, "the amount of production capacity determines the amount of shipments."
Ye Mingyuan introduced that in 2022, due to the high level of lithium carbonate** and the high downstream demand, energy storage cells will be in short supply and will become a "hot commodity". At that time, the production capacity of most lithium battery companies was insufficient. In this context, CATL quickly competed for orders by virtue of its integrated industrial advantages, and easily gained a large market share, with a market share of about 38% that year.
However, in 2023, driven by the wave of energy storage expansion, the production capacity of lithium battery companies has been rapidly increased, which not only meets the demand of the energy storage cell market, but even has overcapacity.
At the same time, the rapid expansion of the market has also attracted many new players to enter the game, further exacerbating the saturation and overcapacity of the energy storage cell market.
In 2023, BYD and EVE's energy storage cell shipments will increase rapidly, both exceeding 20GWh, and the market share will also increase greatly, of which BYD's market share will increase from about 8% in 2022 to about 10%.
Similarly, for the two "dark horses" of Haichen Energy Storage and Envision Power, an important reason for the significant increase in ranking is also the increase in production capacity. In 2022, these two companies will not be able to achieve a good ranking on the list due to insufficient shipments due to their inability to keep up with production capacity.
Among them, Haichen Energy Storage did not build a production capacity of 15GWh until the end of 2022, and the shipment volume of that year reached 5GWh, which has basically reached the limit of production. In 2023, due to the release of production capacity, the order production of Hichen Energy Storage will be basically guaranteed, and the shipment volume will increase, which will bring about a ranking change.
Wang Pengcheng, co-founder and general manager of Haichen Energy Storage, revealed its strategic goals in an interview with Huaxia Energy Network at the end of last year, "Haichen's goal in 2025 is to be the 'No. 1 brand of energy storage batteries', and we hope to enter the top two in the field of battery cell segmentation in 2024." ”
Another dark horse prospective power, as early as 2021, is in the same echelon as CATL and BYD's brand recognition in overseas markets. However, Envision's energy storage business expansion is not aggressive, and the early stage of the business was mainly for wind farms, and it was not until 2023 that the company began to vigorously expand at home and abroad. The increase in production capacity has supported the expansion of Envision Energy Storage's market share.
Another factor that affects shipments and rankings is "customer recognition".
Ye Mingyuan said, "Whether energy storage cells can really bring economy and profitability to downstream customers is the key. ”
The profitability of the domestic energy storage market is subject to the power trading policy, and the independent income of energy storage is a long-term problem. In this case, downstream customers pay more attention to battery cells, and most of the rookie companies on this year's list are also the winners of the "first battle".
In the overseas energy storage market, customers pay more attention to the cost performance of battery cells. "For the same amount of running time, I will recognize whoever has a cell that can bring me greater cash income. Ye Mingyuan said.
According to reports, the list released by an overseas consulting agency shows that in the overseas energy storage cell market, the top three Chinese companies that are most recognized by customers are BYD, CATL and Envision Power. This is why when the production capacity of BYD and Envision Power was insufficient in the early stage, CATL was able to obtain the first place in terms of shipments; At the same time, it is also an important factor for Envision Power to increase its market share and ranking once it increases its production capacity.
The extremely involuted energy storage industry has entered the stage of life and death, and the only constant is "change". Looking forward to 2024, how will the market pattern of energy storage cells change?
It can be basically concluded that the pattern of the global energy storage cell market will further tend to 'one super and many strong' in the future. Ningde's crushing lead still exists. Closely followed, BYD, EVE Lithium Energy, Ruipu Lanjun, and Haichen Energy Storage may all enter the ranks of 'how strong'. Ye Mingyuan thinks.
It is worth noting that, according to the recent market actions of several major manufacturers, EVE Lithium Energy, Ruipu Lanjun, Haichen Energy Storage, etc. have signed a large number of orders with overseas integrators, which means that the recognition and customer stickiness of several manufacturers in overseas markets are also constantly improving, and the future may further distance itself from second-tier battery cell manufacturers, and the market dominance of leading enterprises will be further enhanced.