China's lithography machine skyrocketed by 1000, and the United States fought back?
Public data shows that in December 2023, China's imports of lithography equipment from the Netherlands increased by 1,000% compared to the same period last year. According to the analysis of industry experts, this is the result of the Netherlands' ban on the export of lithography machines, which has led to a large number of hoarding by Chinese companies. Just like animals, they stock up on food before winter sets in.
Therefore, it is not surprising that Chinese companies are buying lithography machines in large quantities before the expiration of ASML export licenses. Since December last year, purchases of lithography machines in China have gradually increased, and ASML has also provided more capacity to Chinese customers. According to various data published by ASML, it is expected that by the fourth quarter of 2023, about 70% of the DUV lithography machines produced by ASML will be sold in China.
That's where ASML excels, with orders doubling by 2 percent in the last quarter5 times to 91900 million euros, which is 35 times, 1.1 billion yuan worth of lithography equipment was exported to China in December last year, an increase of 1000% year-on-year.
However, foreign countries have also reported that the United States has ordered Chinese companies not to speed up the purchase of lithography machines, and asked ASML to suspend the supply to Chinese users before the expiration of the ** license at the end of December this year. In January, ASML also announced that it would produce two deep UV immersion lithography machines, the NTX:2100 I and NTX:2050 I.
At present, it seems unlikely that ASML will be able to obtain an export license for the Chinese market in the short term. This is a huge blow to ASML's revenue,** and net profit. Even Google's CEO said:"We can count the days of ASML"。
Currently, demand in the wafer market has recovered, but it is still at a low level compared to 2022. In other words, the lithography machines produced by the semiconductor industry giants in various countries can not only meet the market demand, but also easily catch up.
As mentioned earlier, TSMC has announced that it has temporarily postponed its order for the purchase of 10 EUV lithography machines in 2024. The same goes for Samsung, Intel, and several other well-known chip manufacturers. According to public information, TSMC's current production capacity is less than 80%, while the production capacity of second-tier companies such as Lianxin, Jixin and Powerchip has dropped to 70%.
This means that by 2024, ASML will not only lose a large portion of its Chinese consumers, but sales will also decline due to the continued decline in demand for its devices from other chipmakers.
Like semiconductor companies in the U.S. and Europe, China's integrated circuit companies surprisingly dominate the world's most advanced integrated circuit manufacturing technology, with a market share of 27%. In addition, it is expected that by 2024, Chinese fab companies will build 37 more fabs, and China's wafer market share will increase to 35% by that time.
Due to the high demand for chips in China, Chinese chipmakers will soon sell their products all over the world. In fact, Chinese chips are already being used around the world, and many American companies are using them.
According to an analysis report cited by foreign countries, China's chip production will double in five to seven years, especially for wafers with mature processes. These mature processes have been used in drones, home appliances, and automobiles, and have had a significant impact on chips**.
In 2023, when the demand for potato chips is getting smaller and smaller, the original situation of potato chips** will also change. If the production of potato chips in China continues to increase, ** will continue to decline and even reach"Cabbage price"It's not impossible.
This is undoubtedly bad news for chipmakers in the United States and Europe, because their capacity and price-performance ratio, as well as the challenges faced by American semiconductor companies, will be more severe than they think. Some industry experts say this is also a factor that has led to limited shipments of semiconductor equipment. But now it seems that the rapid growth of Chinese chips is inevitable, and the pattern of the global chip market may undergo further changes.
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