In overseas markets, the limited risk spillover of New York community banks may force the Fed to cut interest rates prematurely, and the focus of the market in February may turn to the results of the US stock quarterly report. Recently, the collapse of community banks in New York once triggered the conjecture that the risk of the banking system forced the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the impact of the event may be relatively limited due to the low proportion of small and medium-sized banks in the U.S. banking system and the high Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio. The non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations or has extinguished the expectation of a U.S. interest rate cut in the first quarter, and the market may focus on the earnings season that has just entered in February. In the domestic market, the level of private placement, public offering, and market valuation is at a historical low; With the successive release of risks such as "snowballs", market sentiment is expected to improve marginally. At present, the average of Sunshine Private Placements is only 559%, and the scale of new equity public offerings in January was only 62400 million yuan, the price-to-book ratio of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is a record low. Recently, risks such as "snowball" knock-in have been released to a large extent, and the subsequent market impact may be relatively weak. Monthly review: Overseas stock indexes hit new highs, and the RMB exchange rate is under pressure again (2024 01 01-2024 01 31) *Market: Most of the stock indexes in developed countries**, of which the stock indices of the United States, Japan and Germany have repeatedly hit new highs, most of the stock indexes in emerging markets**, all A-share broad-based indices**, and the Hang Seng Index**. Nikkei 225**84%, GEM refers to **168%；Science and Technology 50**196%。Bond market: 10-year government bond yields in developed countries across the board**, while Chinese government bond yields are the majority**. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 11bp to 40%, the German 10-year yield rose 18bp to 22%, and the UK 10-year yield rose 275 bp to 40%。Foreign exchange market: The dollar index rose, and the RMB exchange rate came under pressure again. The U.S. dollar index rose 21% to 1035；The yen depreciated against the dollar by 40%, the NOK depreciated against the US dollar by 32%；USD/CNY rose to 72. The US dollar rose to 7 against the offshore yuan2. Major emerging markets across the board against the US dollar**. Commodity market: **all lines**, black trend differentiation, agricultural product trend differentiation, non-ferrous majority**, all lines**. comex***1.7% to 2037$6 an ounce, inflation expectations from 2 from the previous value2% to 23%, and the real yield on 10Y Treasury bonds rose to 17%。Risk Warning: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has made waves again; Commodities *** The slowdown in wage growth in the United States and Europe fell short of expectations.
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