On February 7, in the case of good index performance, high-dividend stocks weakened against the trend intraday, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China fell nearly 4%, and Bank of Nanjing, Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, China Merchants Highway, Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway and other stocks fell more than 2%.
The reason behind this is that when the market recovers, the high-dividend strategy will usher in **.
Historically, high-dividend strategies have not been the mainstream strategy for investment, and their excess returns will mostly appear in adjustments**, and in most cases, once the correction is over, the excess returns of the dividend index will begin to weaken.
Previously, the high-dividend strategy ushered in a "good start", mainly due to the downturn in the market, the decline in investors' risk appetite, and the influx into high-dividend sectors such as banks, coal, and electricity, hoping to obtain relatively stable investment return expectations. In the context of the lack of new highlights and money-making effects in the growth sector, the "slow**" of A-shares has begun to emerge, and the steady value-added strategy represented by high dividends has gained the attention of the market.
At the beginning of 2024, A-shares will continue to adjust, and the market will be significantly polarized. Technology stocks, which were given high hopes by the market a year ago, have continued to fall more than expected, and typical ones such as traditional white horse stocks represented by the Mao Index and growth stocks represented by the "Ning Index" continued to decline.
In stark contrast, low-valuation and high-dividend varieties related to coal, banking, electricity, petroleum, chemicals, highways, etc., bucked the trend and continued to refresh historical and stage highs. On Friday, the share prices of Agricultural Bank of China, CNOOC, Yangtze River Electric Power and Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway all hit record highs, and the share price of China Shenhua also refreshed its high since 2008, and its total market value surpassed that of CATL.
However, due to the defensive nature of the high-dividend strategy, once the market warms up, the high-dividend strategy may also usher in the first risk, and with the stock price, the relative advantage of the dividend yield will also weaken.
On the one hand, it is necessary to realize that the prosperity of the high-dividend strategy is inseparable from the downturn in the market and the downward risk appetite, which means that once the market has a reversal or even reversal in the short term, the market style may shift and revert to the growth style; On the other hand, under the new situation of factors such as the decline in the risk-free interest rate, the proportion of growth industries has declined, and the growth space of most growth industries in the future has become smaller, which means that the market is transforming to a value style in the medium and long term, and it is expected that there will still be good investment opportunities in the medium and long term with high dividend strategies.