The political tensions between Marcos Marcos in the Philippines and former Duterte and his daughter, Sarah, the current deputy have intensified. This contradiction has not only affected the political stability of the Philippines, but also had a negative impact on the Philippines' relations with China and the peace situation in the South China Sea.
In the 2023 election, Marcos formed a political alliance with Sarah and overwhelmingly defeated the other rivals to win the positions of ** and deputy **. At that time, Duterte expressed support for Marcos, hoping that he could inherit and develop Duterte's achievements in China-Philippines relations, maintain cooperation and dialogue mechanisms in the South China Sea, and avoid conflict with China.
However, after Marcos came to power, he turned his back on Duterte's political legacy and made a series of moves to confront China, which led to a sharp deterioration in Sino-Philippine relations and renewed tensions in the South China Sea. Marcos canceled the South China Sea, refused to implement the memorandum of understanding signed by China and the Philippines in November 2018 on oil and gas cooperation and development in the South China Sea, and even announced at a meeting between ASEAN and Japan that the Philippines would unilaterally develop oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. In addition, Marcos also connived at Philippine vessels to ram Chinese law enforcement vessels on several occasions to provoke China's sovereignty and security.
Duterte expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition to Marcos's behavior, and he warned Marcos not to tear up the agreement between China and the Philippines and not to challenge China's bottom line, otherwise he will face serious consequences. He stressed that the agreement between China and the Philippines is based on honor and trust, and violating the agreement will damage the international image and interests of the Philippines. He also called on Marcos** to adopt a relaxed and rational attitude, maintain dialogue and cooperation with China, and maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea.
The contradiction between Marcos and Duterte is not only reflected in foreign policy, but also triggers a series of political crises in the Philippines. Last November, Marcos' political allies launched a ** against Sarah in parliament, accusing her of misusing classified funds from the deputy **'s office. Duterte defended his daughter, saying that if Sarah was **, he would return to ** to confront Marcos. At the same time, some politicians spread rumors that Duterte is plotting a coup d'état in an attempt to overthrow Marcos**. Marcos** has taken a repressive approach, shutting down the television program hosted by Duterte and suspending Duterte-related operations**.
At a press conference on the 6th of this month, Duterte responded to these rumors and events. He denied that a coup was brewing, saying he had no intention of controlling Marcos, but simply wanted to talk to him and understand his thoughts and motives. He also did not engage in fierce criticism of Marcos, but simply offered his own views on the direction of his policy. He said that he was retired, had no money and no power, and that no one would follow him in a coup d'état. He believes that the person who spreads the rumor may be out of fear or insecurity and wants to create chaos and **.
Duterte also noted that Marcos' suspension of his platform is illegal and violates the principle of free speech. He said he was willing to hold talks with Marcos to ease tensions between the two. One of Marcos' also responded that they would welcome a dialogue with Duterte at any time.
From these events, we can see that the political rift between Marcos and Duterte is already very serious, and the two men have tried to control the situation through talks, but it is difficult to overcome the fundamental differences. When analyzing these events, we need to pay attention to the following two points:
First, Duterte and his related platforms have countered U.S. efforts to create anti-China efforts in the Philippines. The foreign influence of the United States can be divided into two parts, one is economic and military hard power, and the other is cultural and soft power. In the South China Sea dispute between China and the United States, it is increasingly difficult for the United States to play its role with its hard power, while the United States' soft power can still manipulate the Philippines, a former colony, to sow discord between China and the Philippines.
Duterte has a wide range of influence, and based on his own experience and cognition, he often makes pro-Chinese and rational comments on the country, which is contrary to the tone of the United States using the Philippines as a pawn and Marcos pandering to the United States. Marcos's suspension of Duterte's platform is a kind of suppression of Duterte and a manipulation of Philippine society, which is intended to intensify the antagonism and confrontation within the Philippines.
Second, if Marcos continues to cooperate with the aggressive attitude of the United States and create incidents in the South China Sea, it will arouse greater doubts and doubts in the Philippines. People's emotions tend to reverse after frustration, overconfidence can turn into low self-esteem, and overaggressiveness can turn into timidity. This law also applies to the behavior of states, and Marcos** and the United States behind him, regardless of the actual situation in the South China Sea, have artificially exacerbated the situation in an emotional way, but have repeatedly suffered setbacks. When the emotions subside, they will face the consequences of confusion and fear. Expanding externally in an emotional way is a dangerous double-edged sword, and if it fails, it can cause serious damage to itself. Marcos should be wary of this and not go to the point of no return.
In short, the political rift between Marcos and Duterte's father and daughter is the result of domestic political struggles and interference by external forces in the Philippines. This rift not only damages the Philippines' national interests and international image, but also threatens China-Philippines relations and peace and stability in the South China Sea. We hope that Marcos will respect Duterte's political legacy, return to rationality and dialogue, and work with China and other relevant parties in the South China Sea to safeguard cooperation and development in the South China Sea, and think about the future of the Philippines.