This week with some customers to eat, the banquet chatted about the pre-holiday market, some people sighed, some people have palpitations, the success of the first person to talk about the courage and courage at that time, missed more regret and unwillingness, and a silent operation error burst out of the market, looking at everyone's expressions and words, thoughts suddenly returned to 2015.
It was the first time to call the "national leverage" year, financing a few trillion yuan, over-the-counter allocation of several trillion yuan, surrounded by a variety of different leverage ratios, it seems that it was inappropriate not to borrow some money to enter the market, as a result of the first half of 2015 Internet madness and the middle of the year thousands of shares fell to the limit, many people for the first time to know the "toxicity" of leverage, a poison that makes most investors addicted and will die, once the cost is very high.
But what I want to say is that leverage is just an amplifier of human nature, and the capital market itself is a game field of human nature, Buffett said that "investment is part of science, part of art, art is more important than science", but the god of stocks has taught everyone on various occasions all his life is the scientific part, how to pick up cigarette butts, how to look at the industry, how to maintain rationality, how to use human nature, therefore, I think the most important thing in investment is to do a good job in the scientific part, as for the art part can not be found, let it be.
This round of adjustment began with the economic decline after 2021, and finally the liquidity crisis at the beginning of this year, valuation, profitability, and liquidity appeared in a three-kill situation. At this time, the premise of using panic and bold attack is sufficient, and such opportunities have been and will continue to exist in the future.
This is not a matter of boldness, but a question of investment science, as long as the probability odds are calculated, so we don't need to listen to others at that time, we only need to make rational judgments, of course, in the final choice, we still need to stick to the circle of ability, "When the tide goes out, the first thing is to be able to see who is swimming naked, and secondly, to be able to bend down boldly to pick up shells, and find those shells that have long been the key is the key."
During the communication with customers, most people are talking about emotions, markets, policies, and fluctuations, but in fact, investment is just a simple math problem, but this question often appears on the test papers of other subjects. At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3,000 points, some people cheered, some people were disappointed, or the same sentence, watch your basket tightly and do this math problem well. Find those "cigarette butts" left over from other people's panic and take a few puffs, and if it's still a "cigar butt", congratulations, it can burn for a little longer......The author is the research director of Guotai Junan Shanghai).