When will China overtake the United States? The German newspaper "Die Welt" recently used a calculation model to estimate the economic growth of China and the United States in the next few decades, and pointed out that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States after 2057, and this will only take more than 30 years. This requires a very good environment, let's say that China's economy is growing twice as fast as that of the United States, and inflation is going to persist. However, "there is a good chance that such a situation will not arise." ”
According to the German newspaper Die Welt, the GDP gap between the United States and China is about $10 trillion, which is too huge. Second, the turmoil in the property market and the decline in population will play a great role in China's future development.
London 2020 Economics and Business Research Center ** China will surpass the United States in 2028, some people say it will be in 2030, and Japanese research institutions also say that it will be until 2033, but then they predict that China's economic growth will continue to decline, because the United States has strengthened export controls on China, and now there is no possibility of surpassing the United States, by 2035, China's GDP will be equivalent to 87% of that of the United States.
Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, the economies of countries around the world have suffered a huge blow, and China's economic recovery has attracted much attention. However, it was at this time that the Western public suddenly changed its view, believing that China's GDP would soon surpass that of the United States and become the world's largest economy. Some expect that the timeline for China's GDP to surpass that of the United States will change dramatically, and that it will not necessarily surpass the United States until 2060; It is also expected that China, like Japan, will return to more than 30 years ago in terms of economic aggregate, or that it will never surpass the United States. "This is never possible," says Le Monde, a statement that is gradually gaining acceptance.
However, there are also objections. Germany quoted Hellero, an analyst for Asia Pacific at Banco France International, as saying that China will still be able to keep pace with the United States in the next 15 years, but not "significantly surpass", and that GDP growth in the two countries is expected to be very similar from 2035 onwards. This means that "neither side can unequivocally outdo the other".
From an objective point of view, due to the complex and volatile international situation, it is difficult to use the current growth rate to measure when China's GDP will surpass that of the United States, which has no practical value. Also, in the 70s and 80s of the 20th century, who could have predicted that in just 40 years, China's economy would become the second largest in the world? Anything is possible in this world!