If China made remarkable achievements in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, can India, the most populous country in the 21st century, repeat China's miracle?
The answer given by the United States ** is: No!
The United States believes that although India is the most populous country in the world and has a rich labor force, it stands to reason that India may become the next manufacturing power, but because of its own problems, India cannot create a miracle like China.
First, India's savings rate is low, because there are no deposits, so it is difficult for individuals and businesses to expand, which means that there will be no large companies in India.
Secondly, in India, the proportion of women in employment is much lower than the average of low- and middle-income countries in the world, where the average employment rate of women is around 50 per cent, compared to only about 30 per cent in India.
Third, India faces serious barriers. India's MFN tax rate is as high as 181%, China only 75%, high tariffs make it difficult for India to import advanced technology and equipment from abroad and develop its own industry.
In addition, India's high debt has also become an important factor hindering India's development. India's massive infrastructure infrastructure has already led to 85% of its national debt.
The United States often compares India with China, mainly because India has a large population, and India and China are both countries with a population of more than 1.4 billion in the world. However, apart from the similarity of the population, India has nothing in common with China, which dooms India to become the manufacturing power that the West expects to compete with China.
To become a manufacturing country, in addition to population, there are actually many objective conditions, such as: education for all, because only with corresponding education and certain skills can it be called "demographic dividend".
By Indian standards, India's literacy rate is only about 70 percent, and even fewer people have access to factories, which has led to a large number of people in India becoming a burden to society.
In addition, India's entrenched caste system and fragmentation are also important factors restricting India's development. The main reason why China has been able to achieve an economic leap is that China has carried out a thorough national democratic revolution and completely broken the shackles of class and region, so that it can accomplish in just a few decades what the West can accomplish in hundreds of years.
Until now, India has maintained a loose federal structure, with different tax systems and judicial systems between states, hence the saying that "government decrees do not leave New Delhi". In such a situation, it is naturally impossible to form a unified market, let alone industry.
Therefore, India wants to catch up with China and become the world's largest manufacturing power, and Western countries are also happy to help India to fight China, but unfortunately, India is "useless", and domestic social and political problems have been plaguing India, so that it cannot play its maximum potential and can only roll in a muddy pond.
Although India has never had a shortage of ambitious leaders, none of the reforms have touched the nerves of India's middle and lower classes, and "swinging" has long been a long-standing problem, and perhaps this is India's fate.
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