Intel CEO: The United States, Japan and the Netherlands have joined forces to suppress, and China's chip technology will lag behind by 10 years!
How many years is China's chip technology behind the world's cutting-edge technology?
In the first half of last year, we think it will be about 8-10 years, because the technology in Chinese mainland is 14nm on the surface, and TSMC reached 3nm in the first half of the year, 14nm to 3nm, and the difference in the middle is 10nm, 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, so four generations, that is, about 10 years.
However, in the second half of last year, the situation changed again, and the Huawei Kirin 9000s was born, a chip that rivals the performance of Qualcomm's 5nm chip, the Snapdragon 888, and the transistor density has also reached the 7nm level.
Therefore, everyone believes that the gap between Chinese mainland and the world's top chip technology is actually only 2 generations, that is, the gap between 7 nanometers and 3 nanometers, and the real thing is only about 5 years.
Since TSMC will implement 7nm technology in 2018 and we are now in 2023, isn't that 5 years apart?
However, as we all know, after the launch of this chip, the United States updated the chip ban and made the embargo on artificial intelligence chips, semiconductor equipment, etc. stricter.
At the same time, Japan and the Netherlands have followed the advice of the United States and fully implemented the ban, especially Japan, which has a large number of sub-40nm semiconductor equipment and requires a license if it is to be exported to China.
ASML's advanced DUV immersion lithography license was also revoked, which again had a certain impact on the development of advanced wafer processes in Chinese mainland.
Because of this, not so long ago"World Economic Forum, Davos"Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said that under the joint constraints of the United States, Japan and the Netherlands, the technological gap between China and the world's top wafer manufacturing technology is 10 years!
He believes that with the United States, Japan and the Netherlands joining forces, it will be more difficult for China's chip industry to catch up with the world's first-class level in the next few years, because the limitations of semiconductor equipment will hinder China's semiconductor manufacturing industry from catching up.
According to him, the policies of the United States, the Netherlands and Japan set a minimum limit between 10 nanometers and 7 nanometers, and China's existing tools can only produce 14 nanometers, and when it reaches 7 nanometers, it cannot exceed this minimum limit, while the technologies of TSMC, Samsung and Intel have gone from 3 nanometers to 2 nanometers and then to 1 nanometers.
I wonder what everyone thinks about this? Theoretically, it seems that if we don't move beyond 7nm effectively and quickly, there's a good chance we'll be 10 years behind in the future.
But theoretically, it's just a superficial issue, and we'll have to wait and see if something like this happens next, and we can't stay put, so I'm sure what the Intel CEO said won't happen.