According to the People's Bank of China, on January 29, the central bank carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 500 billion yuan, and because 122 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase expired on the same day, the open market achieved a net investment of 378 billion yuan.
Experts said that under the effect of favorable factors such as continuous net investment and RRR cuts, it is expected that the capital will remain stable at the end of January and around the Spring Festival. In the future, the central bank will take multiple measures to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and reasonable and stable market interest rates.
Market interest rates have risen
This week (January 29-February 2), 1,977 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase expired in the open market, 122 billion yuan, 465 billion yuan, 463 billion yuan, 466 billion yuan, and 461 billion yuan respectively from Monday to Friday.
At the same time, the central bank began to continuously net investment last Thursday (January 25), and achieved a net investment of 378 billion yuan on Monday, maintaining a large investment intensity.
In the past three working days, the central bank has achieved a net injection of funds in open market operations, mainly due to the increase in market interest rates and deviation from the policy rate. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, analyzed.
From the perspective of market interest rates, Wind data shows that as of January 29**, the interbank market 1-day bond collateral repo rate (DR001) reported 17160%, 7-day bond collateral repo rate (DR007) at 19401%。
Multiple positive factors resonate
Affected by factors such as the demand for cash withdrawals during the Spring Festival and the payment of taxes and other factors, the liquidity gap usually widens before the Spring Festival. Compared with the same period last year, there are many positive factors that will keep the capital stable before the Spring Festival this year.
On the one hand, the supply of bonds before the holiday this year is less than the same period in previous years; On the other hand, the central bank may guide the reduction of the scale of credit 'good start' this year to a certain extent, thereby easing the pressure on banks' excess reserve depletion. Qu Rui, an analyst at the Research and Development Department of Oriental Jincheng, said.
More importantly, the central bank announced that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio by 05 percentage points, providing 1 trillion yuan of liquidity to the market, will help maintain the stability of capital before and after the Spring Festival.
At present, the phenomenon of capital stratification is more prominent, and the pivots of R007 (7-day bond pledged repo rate in the interbank market) and GC007 (7-day bond pledged repo rate of the Shanghai Stock Exchange), which represent non-bank financing rates, have risen to 2% and 25% around. Against this backdrop, the PBOC can help alleviate the tight liquidity situation in the market by releasing low-cost funds through RRR cuts. Huang Wentao, chief economist of China Securities Construction Investment, said.
Use a variety of monetary policy tools
Assuming that the funding situation is still tight after the RRR cut, the central bank may still take more measures in the future. In the view of Li Yishuang, chief analyst of Cinda** fixed income, the RRR cut is an important signal of monetary policy adjustment, and the probability of a significant tightening of the follow-up capital has decreased.
Huang Wentao said that observing the open market operations after the previous RRR cuts in recent years, there is a high probability that the RRR cut will be hedged through the net withdrawal of the open market in the same month, indicating that the RRR cut itself will release excess liquidity. "The current economic conditions do not allow the funding rate to rise sharply, and the central bank may continue to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity through 'OMO (open market operation) + MLF + SLF (standing lending facility) + structure. He said.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, suggested that in the next step, a variety of monetary policy tools should be comprehensively used, both quantity and price, and long and short, so as to ensure more abundant liquidity in the total amount, moderately reduce the cost of comprehensive social financing, and further stabilize the confidence and expectations of business entities.
*: Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 30.