In 2023, China's economy will maintain a stable development trend and continuously optimize its industrial structure. Among various industries, some industries are performing strongly and making great progress; Some industries have gradually recovered after a period of downturn; Other industries are still struggling with some difficulties and challenges.
In 2024, under the macroeconomic trend, the performance of various industries will be differentiated. The tourism industry has recovered strongly, the mid-to-high-end market of new energy vehicles has risen, the commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion has accelerated, the first year of the low-altitude economy, the application of large models has been accelerated, and the "going to sea" of enterprises has become a must-answer question. Dr. Luo Rentong, a senior researcher at the Guangdong Innovation Strategy Research Association, believes that China's economy will maintain stable growth, and investors can pay attention to investment opportunities in related fields and grasp market opportunities.
1. Strong growth in tourism
The tourism industry has recovered strongly, and the phenomenal Internet celebrity cities of Zibo and Harbin are leading the trend. During the New Year's Day holiday, the number of domestic tourists exceeded 13.5 billion, revenue 797300 million yuan, all exceeding the pre-epidemic level. Outbound travel is also booming, with bookings from Europe to China increasing by 663%, and the reciprocal visa-free policy between Singapore and Thailand has contributed to the outbound boom. The recovery of tourism stimulates the domestic economy, accounting for 33%, nearly 4 trillion yuan. In 2023, it is expected to increase to 8% of GDP, with more than 6 billion tourists and more than 6 trillion yuan in revenue. In the new year, the tourism industry will usher in broader development prospects, and the industry is prospering.
Correlation analysis: Zibo barbecue "enters winter", this Internet celebrity city is completely "cool"?
Behind the refund turmoil of the Ice and Snow World, can the tourism fever brought by Harbin's 3.5 billion yuan stand the test?
Local cultural and tourism bureaus are "involuting into madness", how can Internet celebrity cities really "become popular"?
2. The rise of the mid-to-high-end market of new energy vehicles
The new energy vehicle market is experiencing fierce competition. In the past few years, the industry has maintained rapid growth, but with the gradual withdrawal of subsidy policies, market competition has begun to shift to the mid-to-high-end market. At present, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales with new car consumption of more than 400,000 yuan has increased from 1 in 20172% to 34%, while the data in the range of 20-300,000 yuan is from 85% to 175%。
Major car companies have launched mid-to-high-end new energy car products to seize market share. For example, the price of Wenjie M9 is 50-600,000 yuan, the ideal MEGA is more than 500,000, BYD Denza D9 is less than 660,000, the Great Wall tank starts from 700 700,000, and Geely Krypton 001FR 7690,000, NIO ET9 800,000, BYD looks up to U8 10980,000, as well as Xiaomi Su7, etc.
The sales of these mid-to-high-end new energy vehicles are remarkable, among which the Wenjie M9 listed on December 26 is Dading 540,000 units, and BYD's million-dollar luxury car sales in December last year also reached 1,593 units, ranking first in the million-level new energy SUV sales list. However, the overall industry is still facing huge operating pressure, the vast majority of new energy vehicle companies are not profitable, the industry competition will be more intense, and tail companies will accelerate to fall behind. Therefore, the era of accelerated differentiation of the new energy vehicle market is coming.
Correlation analysis: 2023 of the first generation of new forces: Wei Xiaoli has obvious gaps in their respective paths, and the variables are in 2024.
The second-generation new car-making force has entered the market, will Xiaomi Jiyue Jishi AVATR surpass NIO Ideal Xpeng?
3. The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating
The new energy industry is in the spotlight, but in 2024 it will be more interesting to watch in the field of controlled nuclear fusion. China has identified this field as an important direction for future energy, and a controllable nuclear fusion innovation consortium has been formed by a number of central enterprises, scientific research institutes, universities, etc., to accelerate the commercialization process.
Compared with nuclear fission, nuclear fusion has more advantages, such as abundant raw materials, efficient and stable reactions, etc., which can provide almost unlimited clean energy, and is expected to reduce the cost of power generation. The capital market has been moved, the nuclear power sector is continuous, and a number of listed companies are expected to participate in depth. In 2024, controlled nuclear fusion is expected to set off a boom.
4. The first year of low-altitude economy
Shenzhen issued the first regulations on the promotion of low-altitude economic industries to promote the "take-off" of low-altitude economy. The low-altitude economy is an economic concept based on the airspace below 1,000 meters, covering many fields such as drones and flying cars, and is regarded as a new economic growth point.
At present, at least 16 provinces have included the low-altitude economy in the work report or planning, and also proposed the development of emerging industries such as the low-altitude economy. Shenzhen issued regulations to pave the way for the development of low-altitude economy. As an important carrier of the low-altitude economy, evtol (flying car) is expected to achieve commercial operation in 2024, first serving ** and enterprises, and then expanding to personal consumption. It is estimated that by 2028, the size of China's low-altitude economy market will reach 37 trillion yuan.
5. Accelerate the application of large models
In 2023, the emergence of ChatGPT has triggered an industry change, on the one hand, rumors that it may lead to the disappearance of some industries and the replacement of jobs have caused panic in the market; On the other hand, how to use ChatGPT and other large models to create new wealth has also become an important issue for enterprises. At present, major enterprises around the world have begun to lay out the field of large models.
For example, Amazon's Olympus model, Google's Gemini model, Wenxin Yiyan, Tencent's hybrid model, JD.com's Yanxi model, iFLYTEK and Huawei's "Spark all-in-one machine" and so on. It is expected that by 2024, the commercial implementation around the application side will be accelerated, which will have an impact on the short-term to C-end artificial intelligence products and the long-term reconstruction of the production process.
Smaller companies may be more prominent in disruptive innovation of industry models due to their light burden. In general, this change will be a restructuring of the entire business model, and the leading manufacturers will use their technological and financial advantages to focus on the reconstruction of the underlying production process.
For example, based on Wenxin Yiyan, 11 industry models have been laid out in key areas such as energy, automobiles, government affairs, transportation, and finance, and the large models have been integrated into vertical fields to truly achieve industrial practice and commercial implementation. Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei, etc. also cover many industries such as e-commerce retail, logistics, social networking, and mining, and the industrialization is also rapidly improving.
Correlation analysis: The domestic AI model "rolls" into a "100-model war", will the many and chaotic industry breakthrough points be industry applications?
Beijing: The first batch of 10 typical applications of industry large models were announced.
, if you don't go to sea, you're out
In 2024, enterprises "going overseas" has become a must-answer question, and all kinds of business entities have joined this craze. From e-commerce to technology, from consumer goods to pharmaceuticals, from new tea brands to manufacturing plants, Chinese companies are looking for new opportunities around the world. Especially in the field of new energy, the export of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, solar cells and other products has grown rapidly, showing China's strong strength in this field. Industry insiders generally believe that 2024 will be a critical year for enterprises to "go overseas", and it will be a must for small and medium-sized enterprises to realize brand going overseas with the help of "cross-border e-commerce + industrial belt". In the global market, Chinese enterprises are showing a fiery scene of hundreds of ships competing for the current and thousands of sails.
Correlation analysis: How can China's "four tigers" such as SHEIN and TEMU help the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry?
Chinese brand new energy vehicles are booming in Thailand, can Japanese fuel vehicles still hold the Southeast Asian market?
7. The entertainment industry is blowout
Film and television and concerts are the two hot spots in the entertainment industry. In 2024, the film and television culture industry will recover and pick up, but it will take time for the industrial chain to recover. At the same time, the concert market also ushered in a blowout, and the box office revenue far exceeded that of 2019. Large-scale concerts and festivals have a positive impact on urban tourism consumption.
Correlation Analysis: 41.6 billion in tourism revenue! Xi'an has the traffic password of TFBOYS concert, how do other cities "copy homework"?
8. Good for "Pinduoduo".
In 2023, Pinduoduo's market value once surpassed Alibaba and became the new "first brother of e-commerce", which marked a watershed in China's e-commerce rivers and lakes. The giants are being challenged and subverted by rising stars. Pinduoduo's contrarian growth can be explained by the shift in consumption, that is, in the context of the economic downturn, people have reduced their optional consumption, while the sales of just-needed goods such as paper towels and garbage bags have increased instead of decreasing. This enabled Pinduoduo to achieve sales growth and a net profit margin of nearly 30% while maintaining the same marketing subsidy. People's willingness to consume is based on expectations for the future, and optimistic expectations will stimulate strong consumption desires.
Correlation analysis: What is the logic of Pinduoduo's market capitalization exceeding Alibaba's and high growth for 6 consecutive quarters? New normal consumption and cross-border.
Analyze |From the five types of consumer brands that will die out in 2023, how will the consumer trend change in 2024?
9. The first year of mass production of humanoid robots
Humanoid robots, known as the ultimate form of embodied intelligence, are gradually becoming the outlet of the next era. From a policy perspective, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clarified its strategic deployment for the first time in November last year, aiming to make breakthroughs in key technologies of humanoid robots and supply core components safely and effectively by 2025. By 2027, the technological innovation ability of humanoid robots will be significantly improved, the industrial ecology will be internationally competitive, and the comprehensive strength will reach the world's advanced level. The continuous promotion of policies will undoubtedly accelerate the development of humanoid robots.
At the enterprise level, many technology giants have laid out the field of humanoid robots. Products such as Tesla, Boston Dynamics Atlas, and Xiaomi CyberOne have attracted much attention. Products from leading manufacturers such as Tesla and Agility Robotics are expected to start mass production in 2024, with deliveries reaching 100 or even 1,000 units. In addition, 2024 will be the year when UBTECH, Zhiyuan, Xiaomi and other humanoid robot products will officially enter the automotive production line, marking the beginning of the first year of humanoid robot application.
2024 will undoubtedly be the first year for the mass production of humanoid robots, and it is also a key year for the initial establishment of the market structure. This year's development will lay a solid foundation for the future of humanoid robots.
Correlation analysis: "The first share of humanoid robots" will become the largest IPO at the end of 2023! UBTECH's market value of $4.9 billion is in danger of dying.
10. Infrastructure development
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Ministry of Finance decided to issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, mainly to invest in infrastructure areas such as "disaster prevention and relief". This decision shows the strength of support for infrastructure investment in 2024. At the same time, in 2024, the amount of new special bonds approved in advance for local bonds will be 2About 28 trillion yuan, these funds will be used to carry out various infrastructure and livelihood projects and other major projects to promote economic growth.
In addition, an important meeting held in mid-2023 proposed to actively and steadily implement the transformation of urban villages in megacities and megacities. These 21 megacities have been entrusted with the important task of carrying out the transformation of urban villages.
Correlation Analysis: Another National Urban Agglomeration! Implement and promote the "Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang coastal urban agglomerations".
To sum up, for investors, they can pay attention to investment opportunities in related fields and grasp market opportunities.
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Luo Rentong, an expert in the application and practice of digital economy, gave a lecture
Artificial Intelligence:"AI Trends", "ChatGPT".
Digital Applications:"Blockchain", "Metaverse", "Big Data".
Digital China:"Smart City", "Digital **", "Smart Building", "Smart Transportation".
Digital Transformation:"Digital Transformation of Manufacturing Industry", "Digital Transformation of Retail Industry", "Innovation of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises".
Industrial Digitalization:"Tobacco Digital Transfer", "Banking Financial Technology", "Power and Energy Internet".
Macro & Trend:"Digital Economy", "2024 Macro", "Double Carbon".
Thinking & Skills:"Digital Thinking" and "Organizational Change".
Innovation & Entrepreneurship:"Entrepreneurial Mentor" and "Business Model".