Today (2024 2 20), the A-share equity market collectively declined, the convertible bond market was relatively hot, and the CSI convertible bond index rose 034%。Daye convertible bonds rose nearly 13%, Haishun convertible bonds, Lidao convertible bonds rose nearly 6%, Tailin convertible bonds, Yonghe convertible bonds, and Yachuang convertible bonds rose more than 4%.
Related ETF-Convertible Bond ETF (511380) bucked the market** and is now up 023%, turnover 58.9 billion yuan, the latest scale of more than 7.6 billion yuan.
Convertible bonds have always been considered to be an investment variety with a "guaranteed floor and no cap", but in the past 5 months, the entire market has accelerated its drawdown - the current round of convertible bond market began in September 2023. In the first half of 2023, the convertible bond market as a whole performed steadily, not following the weakening of A-shares, outperforming all major indices. However, in September 2023, the convertible bond market began to weaken at a high level and has continued to this day.
Debang** said that in the context of slow recovery, investors' focus on the target may switch from earnings elasticity and growth space to competitive barriers, cash flow stability, dividend yield and other factors, and we believe that the central state-owned enterprise sector and the high-dividend sector are expected to usher in valuation reshaping. Some light industry manufacturing and household appliances related targets may benefit from the recovery of overseas demand, and China's export growth is a good catalyst; China's semiconductor industry chain may benefit from the upward trend of the global semiconductor cycle, superimposed on the industrial trend of domestic substitution and AI industrialization, and the performance of some tracks and targets in 24 years is expected to exceed expectations.
At present, most of the convertible bonds have been adjusted in the early stage, and the convertible bonds are closer to the bottom of the debt, so if the adjustment range of the current convertible bond assets is more controllable, the current convertible bonds may be more suitable for the left side to intervene in the equity market; From a structural point of view, it is recommended to pay attention to some small and medium-sized debt-to-debt swaps with controllable credit risk, which have high market value elasticity and strong investment cost performance under the downside protection given by the debt base.
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