In an optimistic atmosphere full of praise, the United States suddenly ushered in a "black swan" event.
For the Fed, whether it cuts interest rates or not, it can have a serious impact on the economy in different ways; For the Treasury Department, the US Treasury bonds to be issued this week will face a severe test.
Worse still, the risks for the United States could spill over into the international arena and possibly even have global repercussions. How do we respond when risks loom in on China?
The United States has been shouting that all kinds of economic data are performing well, claiming that the economy has achieved a soft landing, but it did not expect to usher in the moment of slapping the face so soon.
Just when the Federal Reserve announced its decision not to cut interest rates in January, New York Community Bank couldn't wait to jump out. For several trading days in a row, the stock price has been sharply**.
Last Tuesday, the bank's share price was still at 10$5, but by Tuesday it had fallen to $4$2, in just one week, the stock price has risen by 60%.
If this is just an ordinary ** big fall, maybe people don't have to worry too much. But this is the case of a small or medium-sized bank, and the current situation is very similar to that of several small and medium-sized banks that went bankrupt in March and May last year.
Even more worrying is the fact that the New York Community Bank happened to have taken over the assets of one of the failing banks last year. It seems that the problem of toxic assets is still brewing.
Why did the risk suddenly explode at this moment?
Apparently, the market suddenly realized that the Fed will not cut interest rates for the time being, and not only did it make a decision not to cut rates in January, but it may continue to do so in March and May.
Fed's Mester also said he would like to cut rates three times this year. And the market** may cut interest rates 5 times, which is much more cautious than before.
Expectations of interest rate cuts were disappointed, and the crisis quickly escalated.
It should be noted that the impact of the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates is not limited to the United States, but has spread to the world.
For example, the loss of commercial loans that affected the community bank in New York is also affecting the Blue Sky Bank in Japan and Deutsche Bank in Europe. Last week, both banks announced that they were losing money or raising provisions due to losses on U.S. commercial real estate loans.
In addition, the lack of interest rate cuts in the US means that the dollar index remains at a high level.
Ahead of the January meeting, the U.S. dollar index was trading at 103, but after the decision not to cut interest rates was announced, the U.S. dollar index has risen above 104.
This has also had a certain impact on China. At the beginning of 2024, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has reached 600 points, and it even fell below 7 in early February22。
At the same time, A-shares also saw a wave of significant **. The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 2,635 at its lowest point on Monday.
Will this lead to the emergence of a bearish force on RMB assets in the market? It definitely exists, but on a different scale. But based on past experience, the best thing to do with the bears is to find a way to hit them and make them suffer huge losses. Recently, the national team has taken action, and the central bank and relevant departments have also taken action.
The offshore exchange rate of the renminbi against the dollar hit as low as 17 on Monday2245, but today the highest was once ** to 71890。The increase is more than 350 points. ** The performance is even more pronounced, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from a low of 2,635 points to the current 2,826 points in just three trading days.
The regulator also clearly stipulates that the increase in the scale of securities lending and borrowing will be suspended and T+0 trading will be strictly prohibited. At the same time, ** Huijin Company also issued an announcement to increase its holdings, making it clear that the national team has entered the market. Obviously, the financial defense war has begun, and the economic and the best defense war has been going on.
Maybe after the Spring Festival, the battle situation will gradually become clearer. Kunpeng Project