China's pig prices have recently risen sharply, which has attracted widespread attention. The reason for this rally is mainly due to the impact of bad weather in rain and snow, which leads to poor transportation and logistics, which affects the ** chain of pork. Especially in some places in East China, pig prices have broken through the "9 yuan era" mark, with an increase of more than 1 yuan kilogram. According to the latest data, the ** of the outer ternary pig has risen to 1487 yuan kg, an increase of 052 yuan. This strong trend is mainly concentrated in Shandong, Anhui, Hebei, Henan and Jiangsu.
As the world's largest pig breeding and meat consumer, China still has a lot of room for scale and concentration in the pig breeding industry in the medium and long term. According to the data of research institutions, according to the changes in the number of fertile sows in 2023, it is expected that the number of pigs will gradually decrease in 2024, which may promote the gradual recovery of pigs in China.
In the current market environment, the livestock and poultry breeding chain is still the focus of hot attention. The pig breeding industry is known for its special cyclical cycle law, when the pig is ***, the sow herd will increase, which will lead to the increase of pig **. As demand is exceeded, a large number of sows are culled, decreasing, until, again.
Pig breeding is mainly divided into two forms: free-range breeding and large-scale breeding. At present, free-range farming is still the mainstream, but large-scale farming is also gradually developing and growing. Large-scale farming mainly includes two modes: cooperative farming of "company farmers" and independent farming of companies. The core difference between the two models is whether the farming process is undertaken by an external farmer or by the company itself.
Both models play an important role in promoting the large-scale development of pig farming in China. They guarantee the stability of hogs** and maintain the smooth functioning of the market. The "company farmer" model occupies less capital than others, and the scale expansion is more flexible. The company's self-raising model is more prominent in pig quality control, food safety assurance, disease prevention and control, and production efficiency.
With the continuous expansion of production capacity and the promotion of large-scale breeding, domestic pig breeds have also been significantly improved. The proportion of binary fertile sows has increased significantly from around 50% in 2020 to more than 93% in 2023. In the context of the rising proportion of binary sows, the number of pigs has grown more rapidly, which may slow down the pace of pig production capacity.
The pig industry chain is mainly composed of five key links: feed production, pig breeding, slaughtering and processing, meat product production and product sales. Among them, pig breeding, slaughtering and processing and meat product production are the core links. The slaughtering and meat processing industry is located in the middle of the pig industry chain, with the upstream being the pig breeding industry and the downstream being the terminal sales link.
In recent years, in order to cope with market changes and enhance competitiveness, slaughtering and meat processing enterprises have carried out upstream and downstream industrial layout. On the one hand, it extends upstream and sets foot in the field of pig breeding, aiming to reduce the cost of raw materials and stabilize pigs; On the other hand, it is expanding downstream, building a logistics and distribution system, opening specialty stores, etc., to ensure that processed meat products can smoothly enter the sales channel and finally reach consumers.
At present, the pattern of China's pig breeding industry is relatively fragmented, and the industry concentration is low. Although the market size is huge, it has exceeded one trillion yuan, but it still presents the characteristics of "small enterprises, big market". In terms of feed processing and animal protection products, representative enterprises include New Hope, Haid Group, Dabeinong and Tiankang Biotechnology; In the pig breeding sector, the representative enterprises are Muyuan shares, Wen's shares, Zhengbang Technology, New Hope and Aonong Biotechnology; In the field of slaughtering and meat processing, Shuanghui Development and Yurun Food and other enterprises have outstanding advantages.
According to the data of 2023, the five major pig companies, including Muyuan, Wens, New Hope, Twins Group and CP, account for more than half of the Chinese market, and these companies are also the leading enterprises in China's pig breeding industry.
1.Disease risk: pig disease is one of the important factors affecting the development of the breeding industry, such as African swine fever. A sound disease prevention and control system is essential to ensure the sustainable development of the pig breeding industry.
2.Environmental pressure: A large amount of wastewater, manure and emissions will be produced in the process of pig breeding, which will cause certain pollution to water resources and the environment. Strengthening environmental governance and promoting the green development of aquaculture are the current challenges.
3.Cost pressure: Feed, breeding costs, transportation costs, etc. all have an impact on the profitability of the pig breeding industry. High costs can erode farmers' profits and limit the sustainability of the industry.
1.Policy support: The state has always attached great importance to the development of the pig breeding industry, and has launched a series of supportive policies and measures to provide a good policy environment for the industry.
2.Growth in market demand: With the improvement of the economic level and the change of consumption concepts, people's demand for high-quality, safe and secure food is growing, which provides development opportunities for pig breeding.
3.Scientific and technological progress: With the continuous progress and application of science and technology, breeding technology has also been improved, improving breeding efficiency and disease resistance, and providing support for the development of aquaculture industry.
To sum up, the sharp increase in China's pig prices is mainly affected by weather and other factors, and the development of pig breeding is facing challenges and opportunities. The increase in scale and concentration is the development trend of China's pig breeding, while policy support, market demand growth and scientific and technological progress also provide important opportunities for the industry. Strengthening disease prevention and control, promoting green development and reducing costs will be the key to the development of the pig breeding industry.