Institutional investors have a two-step process when making a ** investment. The first step is to analyze the research, which is mainly done by researchers; The second step is the trading operation, which is mainly carried out by the trader. The basic logic is: see the right first, then do the right. Seeing right is the premise of doing right, and doing right is the result of seeing right.
We generally believe that if you see it right, you can do it right. For example, Yili shares, after fundamental analysis and valuation calculation, I came to the conclusion that the intrinsic value of Yili is 10 yuan. Then the transaction looks simple, buy and buy for less than 10 yuan, and sell and sell for more than 10 yuan. However, this kind of transaction cannot achieve a satisfactory rate of return. Aside from professional trading techniques such as securities lending, short selling, financing, hedging, quantification, and high frequency, trading itself is a matter that needs to be adapted to local conditions.
Below, I would like to talk about the past investment process, I think a cost-effective trading method in the domestic market: look at the long and medium.
The so-called long-term and medium-term is to look at the long-term, do the medium-term, and ignore the short-term. To analyze and study the fundamentals of listed companies, we must think from a long-term perspective of five to ten years; The trading operation should control the holding time, with a cycle of three to five years, and a maximum of ten years; Short-term stock price fluctuations within three years can be paid attention to, and are not used as the basis for trading operations. Why do you want to look at the long in the middle? What is the logic behind it?
In any case, the correct way to use it is to first understand and then find the logic behind it, and finally only absorb the parts that suit you. In the past few years, the investment masters of the Chinese-style Buffett have spread the so-called Buffett's value investment theory to the land of China. This can make domestic investors miserable. People who believe in them will think that buying ** is buying a company, that is, buying the equity of a listed company. But in reality, investors are only buying a piece of waste paper, or even a piece of soaring. The real equity is attached to a large number of shareholder rights, at least there will be no secretary of the board of directors who angrily says to the shareholders, "You hold 100 shares and come to the shareholders' meeting, what is your intention?" There should not even be a spectacle similar to CCB's shareholders' meeting not allowing ** shareholders to attend the meeting. What's worse is that shareholders have been cheated and don't even have the right to complain and sue.
Warren Buffett's theory of value investing is correct, because the theory itself is a synonymous nonsense philosophy, and there is no way to verify the truth or falsity. For example, investment is to find good companies, but what is a good company, value investing does not say. If you have to ask, it means that you need to carefully examine the business model and core competencies of the enterprise, which belongs to the category of art. Since it is art, it has no objectivity, cannot be repeated, cannot be verified, and cannot guide practice. But there is no doubt that value investing theory can be inspiring. Finding good companies and staying away from junk companies can indeed break some of the paranoid investment methods. It's just that Warren Buffett won't tell you what kind of company is a good company and how to find a good company.
More importantly, Warren Buffett's theory of value investing is based on the mature U.S. capital market, which is unique in the world. Take a look at the ** chart below, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better chart anywhere else in the world than the United States. The bull is long and the bear is short, not just casually talked. In such a market, your trading strategy can be held for a long time. Mean reversion and investing in national fortunes is no problem, because the stock price will not only come back, but will soon come back.
However, this long-term holding strategy is completely unsuitable for domestic capital markets, and is not even as effective as short-term speculation. As shown in the chart below, the stock price trend of the Shanghai Composite Index is basically either large fluctuations or sideways. The bull market is extremely short, and the bear market is extremely long, resulting in large losses for most long-term investments. From 1994 to 2004, the Shanghai Stock Exchange went on a roller coaster, and only in 2000-2001 there was a segment**; From 2005 to 2009, the stock price fell sharply after soaring, and it was another round of roller coaster, only in 2007, there was an ultra-high increase. In the next few years, it was also this routine.
Since long-term holding is not possible, is short-term speculation okay? Theoretically, short-term speculation is fine in A-shares. But for **, it is practically impossible to execute. With just a mobile phone and a computer, individual investors want to engage in short-term trading with quantitative institutions, which is tantamount to hitting a stone with an egg. Moreover, individual investors have limited time and energy to stare at the market like a full-time trader. I personally do not recommend individual investors to work full-time**, lack of stable income** can easily make trading operations extreme. In the same way, I don't think you can get rich. In fact, there is no job that can make a person rich except for robbing a bank. But it can be used as a means to preserve and increase wealth, and it is more convenient than investing in gold and silver jewelry and antiques.
So, in the domestic market, I tend to look long and medium. If you see the performance direction of the listed company, you can hold it for 3-5 years, and 3-5 years can be used as a verification time for judgment. Generally speaking, it takes 3 years for a company to realize its performance from expansion. If, after three years, the business is still sluggish, it is almost certain that my judgment is wrong. At this time, you should find an opportunity to sell decisively and stop losses in time. If, in three years' time, I had the opportunity to attend the shareholders' meeting of this company, I would say so.
I gave you a chance, but it's a pity that you didn't use it! ”