The research report focuses on the gradual stabilization of the upstream supply and demand is expect

Mondo Social Updated on 2024-02-01

On January 10, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 054%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 055%, the GEM index fell 043%。On the disk, the photovoltaic equipment industry sector rose 216%;*In terms of the daily limit, Akcome Technology, Dike Shares, Jinlang Technology, etc. all have different degrees**.

Donghai** said that the upstream of the PV sector has gradually stabilized, and the downstream module production schedule has declined: 1) Polysilicon: ** Stabilized. Last week, n-type polysilicon remained stable, while p-type polysilicon had a slight increase, and as more and more new production capacity was released, p-type polysilicon tended to accumulate inventory. As of this week, there are 17 domestic polysilicon manufacturers. There is no new shutdown and maintenance this week, but there is a potential risk of power rationing in some areas. According to statistics, China's polysilicon output in December 2023 will be 16610,000 tons, up 574%。2) Silicon wafer: Stability maintenance. Specifically, this round of LONGi Green Energy took the lead in reducing prices, mainly due to the active adjustment in the process of P-type to N-type, and the adjustment range of integrated enterprises is more obvious than that of specialization, mainly because of the matching of all links in the industrial chain and the implementation of the strategy of determining production by sales. 3) Cell: Maintain stability. Recently, the battery link is basically in a state of production loss, and most manufacturers have reduced production and expanded their production lines. M10P cells have been significantly reduced and shut down by manufacturers, and the current supply-demand relationship has been significantly repaired and improved. 4) Components: **Drop. As 2024 approaches, module order acceptance rates in January will be sluggish compared to the past, and module manufacturers, regardless of whether they are first-tier or small and medium-sized manufacturers, will reduce production, with domestic manufacturing schedules of about 40-41GW, down about 14% from around 47-48GW in December. Orders in February are not yet clear, but the number of days in February is small, and most of the current Spring Festival factory holidays are undecided, and it is estimated that there is still a downward trend in production scheduling. Debang also said that on January 3, PVINFOLINK released the latest PV chain spot, and last week, the polysilicon, wafer, and cell sectors stabilized, while modules continued to decline. In January, the module order acceptance rate was sluggish compared to previous years, and module manufacturers, regardless of whether they were first-tier or small and medium-sized manufacturers, had a trend of reducing production, and domestic manufacturing scheduled production of about 40-41GW of volume, down about 14% compared with about 47-48GW in December. Orders in February are not yet clear, but the number of days in February is small, and most of the current Spring Festival factory holidays are undecided, and production scheduling is still trending downward. The ** of the January order execution also shows that the component ** has not stopped falling. In the midst of manufacturers' significant production cuts and shutdowns, the current supply-demand relationship has been significantly repaired and improved. In addition, the planned reduction of production of G12-size production lines and the delay or even suspension of TOPCON's projects are expected to further improve the supply and demand of cells.

Article**: Oriental Wealth Research Center).

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