During the Spring Festival holiday, the battle of new tea brands is even more "white-hot".
Whether it is the Mixue Bingcheng, Tea Beauty, Coco Milk Tea, which can be seen in three or two steps on the street and is close to the people, or Hey Tea and Nai Xue's tea, which favor the bustling business district and are relatively positioned in the middle and high-end, they are all trying to create a festive atmosphere, decorate the façade, push new flavors, print promotional blessings, or go to major social platforms to attract attention and ask for recommendations, so as to collect as much as possible.
And in the capital market, the same fierce qualifying competition is also being staged. On February 14, Shanghai Auntie submitted a listing application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is another new tea beverage company that has broken through the IPO after the successful landing of Nai Xue's tea and the tea Baidao, Gu Ming, and Mixue Bingcheng that have been submitted.
Through the data, we see that in the market that rolls out of the sky, the volume scale, volume sinking, and volume ** are almost the "three-board axe" for all new tea players.
01 Volume scale: The "obsession" of 10,000 stores will last forever
When McDonald's became a belief - "McMonism", more and more business chasers realized that to become a great brand, scale is the foundation, and "10,000 stores" is the first KPI to be run.
The logic inside is also very clear. First of all, freshly made tea is essentially a "restaurant chain business", and "10,000 stores" means more standard operating procedures and more standardized operating methods, as well as faster customer acquisition efficiency and marginal reduction costs, which are closely related to break-even.
Secondly, "Wandian" connotes the meaning of "siphon phenomenon" + "Matthew effect". Following the laws of the economy, in the market of life and death, the bigger the enterprise, the greater the opportunity, that is, the strong will always be strong, until the victory of the long-term dimension.
In addition, "10,000 stores" also represents the "long slope and thick snow" and more imaginative prospects in Buffett's mouth, as long as the premise of the story of "investment is expected" is still there, it can often get a good valuation in the capital market.
As a result, striving to be the "king of ten thousand stores" has become one of the anchors necessary for new tea players, and the franchise model with small investment, less risk and resource sharing is the most important way to achieve the goal. For example, Shuyi Burning Fairy Grass launched an entrepreneurship assistance plan, set aside 100 million yuan to support franchisees, and waived brand usage fees and comprehensive service fees for store opening during the three-year contract period, and the margin was halved; Shanghai Auntie will be the original to pay in a lump sum of 4The franchise fee of 980,000 yuan will be paid in three years, so as to attract more partners; Even Hey Tea, which has always been cold, and Nai Xue's tea, couldn't help but let go of the franchise.
As of the end of September 2023, the number of global stores exceeded 36,000, with a market share of 20%, and the number of Shanghai Auntie stores was 7,297; According to the statistics of Narrow Door Restaurant, as of the beginning of December 2023, the number of stores of Chabaidao, Gu Ming, and Shuyi Yao Xiancao is 7,039 respectively.
There is no doubt that Mixue Bingcheng is the leader of the scale bureau, and it is also the only new tea brand that has successfully broken through the scale of "10,000 stores" so far.
Data**: Prospectus of each company, narrow door restaurant, public information, etc.
In comparison, Hey Tea and Nai Xue's tea are far away. As of the end of 2023, the number of stores in the two companies is about 3,200 and 1,574, respectively.
The reason for this is that intensive store opening requires a large amount of capital expenditure, including store rent, decoration costs, supporting equipment costs, employee wages and benefits, etc., which are multiplied by the number of stores, and fall on the head of every tea company.
Heytea and Nai Xue's tea mainly focus on direct sales in the early stage, and the financial pressure will greatly hinder the process of "becoming bigger", and force them to finally have to shift from the hands-on work of contributing people, money, and efforts to a contract alliance based on brand authorization and the licensee's own profits and losses.
02 Volume sinking: Go to lower-tier cities to find increments
There is no doubt that the entire tea market has transitioned from incremental competition to stock wrestling, and in order to maximize the scale and money, track brands have locked their eyes on third- and fourth-tier cities, and even lower-tier cities.
Fifth- and sixth-tier cities.
According to a report by the China Business Industry Research Institute, in the first half of 2023, the growth rate of takeaway orders for new tea drinks in fourth- and fifth-tier cities will be 30% and 36% respectively, higher than the 28% growth rate of the main markets in the new first- to third-tier markets. In other words, find local increments from the overall stock, and "grasp the hands" in lower-tier cities.
Consumers feel the same way. During the Spring Festival this year, Qiqi, who returned to his hometown in Gansu (a fifth-tier city), observed that Mixue Bingcheng was almost 500 meters apart, and some areas were even so dense that there was a house less than 500 meters, and it was often crowded. On the most lively pedestrian street in the local area, there are many new tea brands such as Honey Snow Ice City, Tea Baidao, Shanghai Auntie, Shuyi Burning Fairy Grass, etc., and what surprises Qiqi is that Hey Tea is also camped on the first floor of a shopping mall, with ** belt below 20 yuan, and the self-built private domain group is very active.
Judging from the data at the end of the prospectus period of each company, Mixue Bingcheng and Gu Ming have the greatest action to roll down. The former 569% of stores are located in third-tier cities and below, compared to 49%; In first-tier cities, the proportion of stores in the former is 45% and the latter only 3%. At the same time, in most provinces except Zhejiang, Fujian and Hunan, the number of stores in Mixue Bingcheng ranks first.
Aunt Shanghai has already bet on the sinking market and the northern market. Founder Shan Weijun believes that the fierce competition in first-tier cities has resulted in extremely low profits, and the consumption power of fourth-tier cities is limited, while the consumption power of third-tier cities is moderate, the market capacity is relatively large, and the number and quality of stores will be relatively high.
Data**: Shanghai Auntie Prospectus.
As of the end of September 2023, there are 51 aunts in Shanghai4% of stores are in northern China; About 49% of stores are in third-tier cities and below, and 50% of the new stores opened in the first three quarters of 20234% are in third-tier cities and below.
Tea Baidao holds the same view, the company's public affairs president Gu Jilin once said that the future sinking market, especially like the county market, has great consumption potential, vitality and wide space. As of the end of the first quarter of 2023, among the more than 7,000 stores of Chabaidao, 107% are located in first-tier cities, 395% are located in third-tier cities and below.
Data**: Prospectus of each company.
Hey Tea and Nai Xue's tea, which see the situation clearly, are also quietly entering the low-line blank market, but their attitude is still more cautious, with higher requirements for partners and many restrictions, such as financial situation, business experience, and a large number of training fees, commissioned surveying and mapping fees, project supervision fees, etc., which to some extent lead to damage to action.
All in all, the sprint to the low-tier market has become the consensus of new tea brands, relying on franchisees in third-tier and below cities to strengthen their own volume and poke through the "ceiling" of performance, while coercing the small town youth with a huge base to tap new increments and new growth points.
03 Volume**: Who can find real gold in the era of low profits?
Like most business formats, the tea beverage industry has gradually entered a stage of slow growth after years of rapid growth.
According to iResearch**, the market size growth rate of the new tea beverage industry from 2023 to 2025 will be. 7%, in other words, the entire industry will show a slight growth trend in the future, and with the arrival of the era of low profits.
In this context, in addition to the scale of the volume and the sinking of the volume, the volume ** is obviously another indispensable "king bomb".
Starting in 2023, Hey Tea and Nai Xue's tea, which have already put down their bodies and reduced prices across the board, will be launched 820% off, 99 yuan monthly card, weekly coupons and other activities; COCO has released an exclusive event for members, with 9 designated drinks per day9 yuan, and 9 online$9 and $12A single card of 9 yuan can be used to write off a designated drink for free; A number of brands such as Shanghai Auntie, Tea Baidao, and Ancient Tea have also allowed consumers to taste the benefits through activities such as check-in lottery free orders, two-cup discounts, and buy gifts.
Source: The official WeChat of each company.
In fact, whether it is the scale of the volume, the sinking of the volume, or the volume of products, or the marketing of the volume, it is all for the sake of "just the rice". The eight immortals crossed the sea and showed their magical powers, who found the real gold?
The data proves that Mixue Bingcheng is the most capable of playing and earning. In the first three quarters of 2023, Mixue Bingcheng's revenue was 1539.3 billion yuan, net profit of 24$5.3 billion; In the same period, Gu Ming's income was 557.1 billion yuan, adjusted profit of 10$4.5 billion; Shanghai aunt income 253.5 billion yuan, net profit of 3$2.4 billion.
In 2022, which is in the same dimension, Mixue Bingcheng will make a big profit of nearly 2 billion yuan, and the net profits of Tea Baidao, Gu Ming, and Shanghai Auntie will be 9 respectively6.5 billion yuan, 78.8 billion yuan, 1$4.9 billion; Only Nayuki's tea continued to "lose blood", and from 2020 to 2022, its net loss was 2., respectively0.3 billion yuan, 14.5 billion yuan and 46.1 billion yuan, a cumulative loss of 8 in three years0.9 billion yuan.
In the first half of 2023, Nai Xue's tea finally turned around its losses and achieved a net profit of 06.6 billion yuan, but 2The net profit margin of 5% still reveals the fragility of earnings.
Data**: Prospectuses, financial reports, etc.
On the one hand, Mixue Bingcheng, known as "Pinduoduo" in the milk tea industry, caters to the popular trend of inclusive consumption, covering the underlying demand with the ultimate price, bringing a sales blowout.
On the other hand, the release of scale effect, enveloping more than 36,000 stores, Mixue Bingcheng just sells raw materials and collects franchise fees, and the amount of capital is very considerable.
However, when it comes to the ability to make money, Mixue Bingcheng is not as good as Gu Ming and Tea Baidao. In the first three quarters of 2023, the net profit margin of Mixue Bingcheng was 159%, Gu Ming is 18%, and the net profit margin of Tea Baidao from 2020 to 2022 is more than 20%, which includes multiple factors such as pricing, channels, procurement, and production.
To sum up, in the current new tea market, Mixue Bingcheng has taken the lead in many points, but "others" such as Tea Baidao, Gu Ming, Shanghai Auntie, Hey Tea, and Nai Xue's tea are also stepping up to catch up, and it is still difficult to assert that "the new king has been established".
For the tea brands in the wild roll, it is particularly necessary to pay attention to how to balance rapid expansion and lean management, how to ensure the unification of stores, products and services, and ensure the safety of ingredients.