In 2024, China will be tougher in the direction of the South China Sea
The South China Sea is an important maritime area for China and a sensitive area in Southeast Asia. In recent years, the situation in the South China Sea has been heating up and the interests of all parties are entangled, which has aroused widespread concern from the international community. As one of the major parties to the South China Sea, China's policy on the South China Sea issue will have a major impact on regional peace and stability.
At the heart of China's South China Sea policy is to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, while maintaining peace and cooperation in the South China Sea. In practice, however, China faces a balance between defending rights and maintaining stability. On the one hand, China cannot tolerate any infringement or provocation against its sovereignty and territory, and must resolutely defend its legitimate rights and interests. On the other hand, China should not let the situation in the South China Sea get out of control, undermine its friendly relations with ASEAN, and affect its own development and security because of its rights protection.
2024 is a crucial year for China's South China Sea policy. Over the course of the year, China is likely to take a tougher stance on the South China Sea in response to provocations and challenges from countries such as the Philippines.
The Philippines is one of China's main adversaries in the South China Sea. The Philippines' position on the South China Sea issue has serious differences and conflicts with China. The Philippines does not recognize China's historic rights in the South China Sea, does not accept China's nine-dash line claim, does not respect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, does not abide by international law and regional rules, and is unwilling to peacefully resolve disputes through bilateral dialogue.
The actions of the Philippines in terms of provocation and challenge mainly include the following aspects:
Ex parte initiation of arbitration. In 2013, the Philippines unilaterally submitted the South China Sea issue to arbitration in an attempt to deny China's sovereignty and rights and interests in the South China Sea, violating China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the spirit of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) signed between China and ASEAN. In 2016, the tribunal ruled entirely in favor of the Philippines, rejecting China's nine-dash line claim and ruling that China has no territorial sovereignty over some islands and reefs in the South China Sea, and does not have an exclusive economic zone or continental shelf. China firmly refuses to accept and enforce this ruling, believing that it is illegal, invalid and non-binding, and will not change China's sovereignty and rights and interests in the South China Sea.
Strengthen the military presence in the South China Sea. The Philippines has illegally built military installations, such as airports, docks, and radar stations, on some islands and reefs in the South China Sea, increased military personnel and equipment, and stepped up military patrols and exercises in an attempt to consolidate its illegal occupation in the South China Sea and threaten China's security and interests. The Philippines has also strengthened military cooperation with the United States and other countries, inviting foreign ships and aircraft to enter the South China Sea to carry out so-called "freedom of navigation" and "freedom of overflight" operations, challenging China's sovereignty and jurisdiction, and undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea.
Interfere with normal activities in China. In some parts of the South China Sea, the Philippines has frequently harassed and interfered with Chinese fishing vessels, coast guard vessels, scientific research vessels, oil and gas platforms, etc., obstructing China's normal maritime activities and infringing on China's legitimate rights and interests. The Philippines has also taken a hostile attitude towards China's joint development initiatives, refusing to cooperate with China, and instead has signed a number of energy development agreements with other countries involving the South China Sea, to the detriment of China's interests.
In 2024, China is likely to take a tougher stance on the South China Sea in response to provocations and challenges from countries such as the Philippines. This is because China cannot give up defending its sovereignty because of the pursuit of maintaining stability, nor can it allow countries such as the Philippines to mistakenly believe that China is weak and can be bullied, thereby encouraging them to continue to engage in provocative and challenging behavior.
The new changes in China's policy in the South China Sea are mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Intensify military maneuvers in the South China Sea. China's Ministry of National Defense has issued a warning to the Philippines and organized routine joint naval and air exercises in the South China Sea, suggesting that China could take more decisive action in the South China Sea in 2024. China is likely to deploy more military forces, such as missiles, warplanes, and aircraft carriers, on some islands and reefs in the South China Sea to enhance its control and deterrence capabilities in the South China Sea. China may also take tougher countermeasures against the Philippines' illegal occupation and interference, such as expulsion, interception, warning, and even force to retaliate, to show that China will not tolerate any infringement and provocation of its sovereignty and rights and interests.
Strengthen legal and diplomatic safeguards in the South China Sea. China is likely to take more active legal and diplomatic assertions on the South China Sea issue in 2024 to enhance the legitimacy and legitimacy of its claims and positions in the South China Sea. China is likely to introduce more laws and regulations, such as the administrative division of islands and reefs in the South China Sea, the delimitation of maritime areas in the South China Sea, and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, to clarify China's sovereignty and rights and interests in the South China Sea. China may also strengthen communication and cooperation with other countries and international organizations, such as the United Nations, ASEAN, and littoral states in the South China Sea, to clarify China's position and policy on the South China Sea issue, to seek more understanding and support, and to isolate and combat the illegal acts of countries such as the Philippines.
Strengthen the development and utilization of resources in the South China Sea. China is likely to take a more proactive approach to resource development and utilization in the South China Sea in 2024 to enhance the embodiment and protection of its interests and values. China is likely to increase investment and development in the fields of fisheries, energy, tourism, science and technology in the South China Sea, so as to make full use of the rich resources of the South China Sea and promote China's economic development and social progress. China may also strengthen cooperation with other countries and regions, such as ASEAN and the coastal countries of the South China Sea, to jointly develop and share the resources of the South China Sea, achieve mutual benefit and win-win results, and enhance regional prosperity and development.
New changes in China's policy in the South China Sea will have a far-reaching impact on regional peace. These effects have both positive and negative aspects.
On the positive side, the new changes in China's policy in the South China Sea will help safeguard China's sovereignty and rights and interests, prevent provocations and challenges from the Philippines and other countries, and maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea. The new changes in China's South China Sea policy will demonstrate China's determination and ability to make the Philippines and other countries dare not easily engage in provocative and challenging behaviors, thereby reducing the tension and danger of the situation in the South China Sea. The new changes in China's policy in the South China Sea will also help promote the peaceful settlement of the South China Sea issue and promote cooperation and development in the South China Sea. The new changes in China's South China Sea policy will show that China is open and inclusive, making it possible for countries such as the Philippines to return to the track of dialogue and consultation and seek mutually acceptable solutions. The new changes in China's South China Sea policy will also help strengthen communication and trust with ASEAN and other countries and regions, promote consultations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, establish an effective crisis management and prevention mechanism, carry out joint development and utilization, achieve mutual benefit and win-win results, and enhance regional prosperity and development.
On the negative side, new changes in China's policy in the South China Sea may also trigger resistance from the Philippines and other countries, aggravate confrontation and conflict in the South China Sea, and threaten peace and stability in the South China Sea. New changes in China's South China Sea policy may intensify hostility among the Philippines and other countries, making them more insistent on their illegal claims, more reluctant to engage in dialogue and consultation with China, and more seeking external support and intervention, thereby increasing the complexity and sensitivity of the South China Sea issue. New changes in China's South China Sea policy may also trigger interference and intervention by the United States and other countries, deepening the internationalization and militarization of the South China Sea issue, and making the South China Sea a focus of friction and confrontation between China and the United States.
To sum up, in 2024, China is likely to take a tougher stance on the South China Sea issue, prioritizing rights protection and maintaining stability. This is an inevitable choice for China to adjust and optimize its South China Sea policy in light of changes in the situation in the South China Sea. The new changes in China's policy in the South China Sea will have a profound impact on regional peace, both positive and negative. China needs to balance rights protection and stability through flexible diplomacy and deterrence, safeguard national interests, promote regional cooperation, and prevent the situation in the South China Sea from deteriorating and spiraling out of control. The international community also needs to understand and respect China's position and policy on the South China Sea issue, engage in constructive dialogue and consultation with China, and jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea. The South China Sea is the common wealth of China and Southeast Asia, and it is also the common responsibility of China and Southeast Asia, and peace and development in the South China Sea can only be achieved through cooperation and dialogue.