Humanoid robots are closely related to artificial intelligence, defined as replacing humans to engage in some dangerous and repetitive labor, and have a great commercialization picture under the rapid development of artificial intelligence.
At present, the demand for a single robot for a reducer has increased exponentially, according to Tesla AI Day, the humanoid robot Optimus has 40 joints, referring to industrial robots, assuming that 14 harmonic reducers and 4 planetary reducers are used, then we estimate that 100,000 sets of sales will increase by about 11200 million harmonic reducer and 1600 million yuan planetary reducer market space.
Since the concept of opitimus was first proposed in 2022, it has accelerated iteration in less than two years, and has now been able to complete complex movements such as one-legged yoga, and the progress has exceeded expectations.
The problem of cost reduction that cannot be avoided by its commercialization and the huge demand for reducers create a broad space for precision reducer manufacturers. Reducer
The reducer is the most critical functional component of the robot, which is an intermediate device connecting the power source and the actuator, and has always been known as the "joint" of the robot, and is the core component of the robot rotary actuator.
Usually, it uses the high-speed power of the electric motor and internal combustion engine to mesh the pinion on the input shaft with the large gear on the output shaft to achieve the purpose of deceleration and transmit greater torque.
For example, a reducer with a reduction ratio of 50:1 can easily achieve a rated torque of 0The 1Nm motor torque is increased to 5Nm, allowing it to withstand higher loads, and the output speed is appropriately reduced to improve control resolution and closed-loop accuracy.
The mainstream route of Tesla's humanoid robot is the harmonic reducer and planetary reducer scheme.
Most of the domestic humanoid robots use planetary reducers, supplemented by harmonic reducers. The use of harmonic reducer scheme requires the use of torque sensor for force control, the structure and cost are more complex, and the multi-stage planetary structure is relatively simple, but the accuracy is relatively low.
However, from the perspective of product and cost differences, the harmonic reducer track is better than the planetary reducer, and the future scale economy and cost iteration space of the harmonic reducer are greater than that of the planet.
Planetary reducers and harmonic reducers have certain overlapping application scenarios.
Compared with RV reducer, the harmonic reducer has lower cost and higher accuracy, and the load capacity has met the needs of humanoid robots, so the harmonic reducer can better meet the lightweight requirements of humanoid robots.
Compared with the harmonic reducer, the advantage of the planetary reducer is that it has a long service life and low service; However, due to its heavy weight and low reduction ratio, it is more suitable for end joint effectors with low precision and efficiency requirements.
The harmonic reducer is composed of three basic components: wave generator, flexible gear and rigid gear, which is a kind of gear transmission that relies on the wave generator to assemble flexible bearings to produce controllable elastic deformation of flexible gears, and meshes with rigid gears to transmit motion and power.
The harmonic reducer has the characteristics of small size and large reduction ratio, and is mainly used for light load parts such as robot small arms, wrists, and hands, so the demand is large.
It has been widely used in energy electronic equipment, mining metallurgy, transportation, lifting machinery, petrochemical machinery and medical equipment, especially in servo systems with high dynamic performance, and the use of harmonic gear transmission shows its superiority.
According to public information, an average multi-articulated robot requires 35 harmonic reducers; The coordinate robot needs an average of 1 harmonic reducer; SCARA robots and parallel robots require 3 and 1 harmonic reducer respectively; Other types of bots require an average of 05 harmonic reducers;
At present, the main players in the global harmonic reducer market include Harmony Harmony, Green Harmonic, Rifle Harmonic, Xinbao, Tongchuan Technology, Han's and so on.
Hamanaco has leading technology and patents, high product life, low failure rate, and a wide range of products, covering the global market.
The development of domestic harmonic gear transmission technology is relatively late, and the domestic green harmonic has taken the lead in realizing the industrialization and scale of harmonic reducer in China, and has also emerged high-quality manufacturers such as Laifu, Han's, Tongchuan Technology, and Guomao Co., Ltd.
At present, some domestic enterprises have been able to reach the international advanced level in terms of performance and stability, breaking the foreign technology monopoly, and gradually forming a certain substitution for foreign brand imports.
Harmonic reducer market share in 2022:
Data**: Xingxingcha precision planetary reducer is a transmission structure composed of three parts: planetary gear, sun gear and internal gear ring, with good rigidity and wear resistance, and is mostly used in the field of traditional automation. It is suitable for the deceleration and rotation of various DC servo motors, AC servo motors and stepper motors, and is widely used in CNC machine tools, industrial robots, food machinery, packaging machinery, printing machinery and other automation equipment.
The precision planetary reducer uses the speed converter of the gear to reduce the number of revolutions of the motor to the desired number of revolutions, and obtains a mechanism with a large torque. The planetary reducer is small in size, light in weight, high in bearing capacity, long in service life, stable in operation and low in noise.
The market share of planetary reducers is relatively fragmented. Globally, precision planetary reducer products in Germany, Japan and other countries are in the leading position in the industry in terms of materials, design level, quality control, precision, reliability and service life.
According to the sales amount data compiled by QY Research, in 2022, Japan's Xinbao, Newcatel, and Wittenstein will be the main players in the global precision planetary reducer market; Japan's Xinbao, Kefeng Intelligent and Newstdart are the major leading players in China's precision planetary reducer market, and their market share in China in 2022 is respectively. 4%, domestic manufacturers have the opportunity to break through.
2022 precision planetary reducer market pattern:
Data**: Kefeng Intelligence, on the whole, has high technical barriers to reducer, and overseas head manufacturers have a first-mover advantage, but domestic manufacturers have accelerated catch-up and continued technological breakthroughs in recent years. In the field of planetary reducer, Kefeng Intelligent is a local brand in mainland China with a high market share; In the field of RV reducer, many domestic brands such as Shuanghuan Transmission, Zhongda De, Qinchuan Machine Tool and so on have been rapidly introduced; In the field of harmonic reducer, green harmonic leads the domestic substitution.
Considering the mass production of humanoid robots, compared with overseas reducer manufacturers, domestic first-chain enterprises have significant advantages in cost and efficiency.
Data**: Under the leadership of Tesla, the current R&D and application of humanoid robots have shown explosive growth and have become the hottest topic in the current science and technology industry. This trend has not only stimulated widespread attention from all walks of life, but also prompted upstream and downstream enterprises in the relevant industrial chain to actively lay out, in order to get a share of this wave of science and technology.
The motion performance, stability and longevity of humanoid robots depend largely on the quality of the reducer. The reducer manufacturers have begun fierce market competition, accelerating the seizure of market share, and domestic manufacturers are expected to accelerate domestic substitution in all aspects to usher in a broad space.
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