jueluo quick review
I think the growth of pure electric vehicles will slow down significantly, or even not grow, because pure electric vehicles did not grow in June last year, but slowly pulled up after June. The hybrid market has grown by more than 100% for three consecutive years, and the market penetration rate will exceed 20% this year. Recently, Li Xueyong, deputy general manager of Chery Automobile Co., Ltd., general manager of Chery Automobile Marketing Company, and general manager of Jietu Automobile, said in an interview with Yicai.
Let's take a look at a set of passenger association statistics. According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, a total of 892 new energy vehicles have been produced in China00,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 337%。Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have been 77360,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 362%。In December, the export of new energy vehicles was 1020,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 398%, an increase of 194%。Since the beginning of this year, a total of 10480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 720%。
Among them, a total of 611 pure electric vehicles were wholesaled throughout the year30,000 units, an increase of 219%；The total wholesale plug-in mix throughout the year is 27510,000 units, an increase of 851%；Range extender wholesale 1130,000 units, up 183% year-on-year. In 2023, the new energy wholesale structure will be 69% pure electric, 23% true plug-in hybrid, and 8% range extender. The Passenger Association particularly emphasized that the range extender effectively makes up for the range anxiety of pure electric vehicles and should belong to the branch of pure electric vehicles. (The above data was released on the official website of the Passenger Association on January 9).
After finishing the first three paragraphs, the author stopped for a while, the reason is that, on the one hand, there are the speeches of car company executives, and on the other hand, the statistics of industry associations, in the face of "various growth", I am wondering who I should believe?
There is no doubt that in terms of brand power and product power, most of the feedback received by Chery Automobile in 2023 is positive, and it is a relatively successful domestic brand. In particular, last year, the Tiggo 9, Discovery 06, Voyager, Arrizo 8 and Fengyun A8 and other models with good market response were launched, which indeed added a lot to the "domestic production" in terms of sales, products and technology. It seems that the "Polytechnic Man" and Li Xueyong, as fighters who go deep into the front line, have reason to make judgments closer to the market.
So, as a "weather vane" of industry statistics, can we still take it too seriously?
According to Li Xueyong, in 2024, the domestic hybrid vehicle (plug-in hybrid) market will still maintain growth, of which the market penetration rate will exceed 20%. If this is the case, judging from the current market situation of domestic brands (excluding new EV manufacturers), the vast majority of the new energy market share will still be pocketed by the five first-tier domestic brands of Chery, Geely, Changan, Great Wall and BYD. They all have plug-in hybrid models on sale, and plug-in hybrids account for a large proportion. From Li Xueyong's words, we can also clearly identify that in 2024, the domestic pure electric vehicle market will encounter an unprecedented bottleneck, and this bottleneck is completely "self-made".
According to the data of the Passenger Association, a total of 611 pure electric vehicles will be wholesaled in 202330,000 units, an increase of 219%, and this data clearly tells us that pure electric vehicles still occupy a large market share. So in this case, if plug-in hybrid vehicles continue to grow, will it eat away at the share of pure electric vehicles or gasoline vehicles?At the same time, don't forget that the performance of extended-range electric vehicles represented by Changan, Wenjie, Ideal, and Leap is particularly eye-catching, and its market prospects are more than pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Judging from the current product layout, the new forces of EV manufacturing are still mainly pure electric or extended range, while independent brands exist in the form of fuel, plug-in hybrid, pure electric, range extender and other technical routes, using different products to meet the needs of different regions and consumers. However, judging from the statistics of the Passenger Association, pure electric vehicles will still be the mainstream of consumption in 2023 and will become the choice of most consumers. However, it is undeniable that many of them buy pure electric vehicles mainly for "rental" and "online hailing", while the vast majority of consumers buy plug-in hybrid and extended range vehicles, mainly for family travel or daily commuting.
Due to the inherent advantages of plug-in and extended-range vehicles, more families will choose to buy them in the future. Based on the current mixed opinions of consumers about pure electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles in the market will indeed face a lot of thorns in the future, and we cannot express the "deep meaning".
Li Xueyong believes that in the next 2 to 3 years, the Chinese market will form a 4:3:3 ratio, of which 40% hybrid, 30% pure electric and 30% fuel;By 2030, 30% of the market will still be fuel vehicles, because China is a vast country, and electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles cannot solve all application scenariosIn overseas markets, there is still a large demand for fuel vehicles, and products need to continue to iterate.
The Passenger Association also said that although new energy is very important, fuel vehicles are the world's mainstream models, and car companies must not give up the launch of new fuel vehicles.
According to the passenger association, there are 22 working days in January this year, four days more than the 18 working days in January 2023. Passenger cars are consumer goods, and the consumption time before the holiday is long, and the consumption pull will be more sufficient. The effective production and sales time in January this year is very long, and the effect of a good start will be very prominent, so 2024 is a big year for consumption.
On the contrary, as a warrior who has gone deep into the front line, Li Xueyong of Chery Automobile is not optimistic about the Chinese auto market in 2024, and he believes that 2024 may be more bloody than the competition in 2023. At the same time, he said that the final of China's auto industry competition is here and next year, and this year can see the general pattern, and next year will be the end.
Do you agree with Li Xueyong's statement?
Edit | symyan
He is the permanent secretary-general unit of the new ** cluster of North China Automobile
Vice President Unit of Liaoning Automobile Dealers Association
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