After more than 240 days of overdue deployment in the Middle East, the US aircraft carrier USS Ford announced that it was about to leave the Mediterranean Sea and set off for home. The planned six-month deployment was nearly a third overdue, and the move had two important implications. First, the United States has reduced its operational power to contain resistance in the Middle East, leaving only the quasi-aircraft carrier Bataan, which is about to succeed the aircraft carrier Ford, and the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower, which is preparing to take action against the Houthis in the Red Sea. This means that the United States lacks sufficient deterrent power along the coastline adjacent to Lebanon and Syria. At the same time, resistance forces, including Allah in Lebanon and the Syrian army, are gradually increasing armed friction with Israel. At the moment, the plans of the United States and Israel in the Middle East are very clear, that is, they want to reduce tensions.
At the end of December last year, Israel announced that the ground operation in Gaza had entered a so-called "new phase", abandoning large-scale ground assaults in favor of localized "mop-up" operations. In other words, previous large-scale military operations have become unsustainable and require the withdrawal of troops. According to the report, Israel will withdraw two brigades in one go this week, and the withdrawal is expected to reach four figures. The US aircraft carrier Ford's behavior of "running away with a bucket" may be because Israel's "retaliation" against Gaza has come to an end, and it is unlikely that there will be any more major military conflicts in the short term in the future, so it can adjust its deployment in the Middle East. However, the reality is that the situation in the Middle East will not be calmed down by Israel's cessation of action, because the opposition forces are not willing to let the United States and Israel get their way. Yemen's Houthis remain at the gateway to the Red Sea, ready to strike at any ship in the service of Israel.
In addition, Iraqi militias used drones in late December to attack the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The U.S.-Israel response to the escalation of the conflict seems to be to conduct a large-scale military operation before the withdrawal to warn the opposition forces and form a degree of "deterrence." The USS Eisenhower remained in the Red Sea, most likely in preparation for the Houthis. The United States and Britain are planning airstrikes against the Houthis, according to the British newspaper The Guardian last week. Meanwhile, at the end of December last year, Israel carried out a massive attack on the Lebanese Allah party, even blowing up the Lebanese capital and assassinating the deputy chairman of the Hamas Politburo. The United States and Israel originally hoped to control the trend of the situation in the Middle East by exercising "grace and might," but now the situation is diametrically opposite.
After Israel's large-scale attack on Lebanon, Allah did not stop its actions, but issued a public statement warning that Israel "will be punished." At the same time, Houthi missiles and boats continue to operate in the Red Sea and have recently engaged in heavy exchanges of fire with US forces. According to the Arab Sky News, the Houthis have begun to launch missiles at US ships. Although there is no news of damage to the US military, there is a high probability of further escalation of the situation in the Red Sea. Thus, it can be said that attempts by the United States and Israel to de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East have failed. At this time, the United States withdrew the USS Ford aircraft carrier, undoubtedly giving the resisting side more room for maneuver. The development of the situation in the Middle East no longer depends only on Biden and Netanyahu, but more on the ideas of Nasrallah and Khamenei.
After the Ford leaves the Mediterranean, if the situation in the Middle East does not develop according to the preset script of the United States and Israel, the space for US military deployment will be further squeezed, and even if it wants to turn back, it will not be able to turn back. Extended deployment of aircraft carriers means that maintenance time will be extended indefinitely. The base maintenance period of the US aircraft carrier is 6 months, and the time required after the overdue deployment will be even longer. And the USS Ford itself is a well-known "problem aircraft carrier" in the United States, because of its flaws in the design of electromagnetic catapults, it has not yet been able to form a complete combat capability. Therefore, after this "ultra-long standby", once you return to Hong Kong, it is likely that it will be difficult to go to sea again within a year. In contrast, the Bataan and Eisenhower fared slightly better, but not ideally. All in all, in about half a year, the United States is likely to fall into a "window period" for aircraft carriers.
The military myth of the IDF has been destroyed by Hamas's "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood". In addition, Israel is faced with the problem of population resettlement due to the collective evacuation of the inhabitants of illegal settlements. None of these problems can be solved in a short period of time. What will happen to the United States and Israel if the resistance continues to take advantage of its geographical advantage to launch military operations against Israel when the U.S. global deployment capability falls into a "window period"?