Recently, the Myanmar Army announced that it would implement a comprehensive conscription policy, which has aroused widespread concern at home and abroad. The move underscores the intransigence of Min Aung Hlaing's regime, which is clearly intended to further strengthen itself in the face of internal and external pressures, and perhaps even prepare for a decisive battle.
Under the People's Service Law issued by the Myanmar Army**, all men between the ages of 18 and 35 and women between the ages of 18 and 27 will be called up to a minimum of two years of military service, and in a state of emergency, the period of military service may even be extended to five years. Those who refuse to serve face up to five years in prison, a policy that has caused huge shocks in Myanmar.
The implementation of this conscription order is seen as a tough response to the domestic situation by the military. Last year, the Kokang Alliance-led ethnic forces launched Operation 1027 against Min Aung Hlaing's regime, resulting in multiple defeats for the Burmese army. Although China has intervened and the two sides have reached a temporary ceasefire, Min Aung Hlaing** has clearly not relinquished control of power. Now, the move of full conscription shows that they do not hesitate to increase internal repression, and are ready to continue to fight against the national armed forces, and even start a decisive battle.
However, the implementation of the conscription policy has triggered a series of reactions in the country. A large number of young people choose to flee abroad to avoid military service, while those who cannot escape avoid military service by paying bribes, becoming monks, and even mutilating themselves. In addition, because married women are not subject to conscription, a large number of single women choose "flash marriage" to avoid conscription.
The implementation of this policy has also highlighted weaknesses within the Tatmadaw of the military. It is estimated that the actual number of Burmese troops that can fight may be less than 70,000, and that the strength of the local armed forces of various ethnic groups is much larger. This shows that the military superiority of the army is not obvious, and the act of forced conscription may be out of anxiety about the internal and external situation.
Although the Myanmar military has tried to bolster itself through full conscription, this move could be counterproductive. The deterioration of the situation may further intensify the internal contradictions and intensify the confrontation between the military and the national armed forces. At the same time, the interference of external factors and the resistance of the people will also bring greater challenges to the military.
In the current situation of relative international tensions, internal turmoil in Myanmar may become an important factor in regional security. Under internal and external pressure, the Myanmar military may further intensify its internal repression and external confrontation, which may also lead to further deterioration of the situation and even the outbreak of larger-scale conflicts.
Therefore, we must remain highly vigilant about the future direction of Myanmar and seek the cooperation and mediation of the international community to avoid further deterioration of the situation and maintain regional peace and stability.