Muhammad Ashtiyah ended "one of the hardest jobs" in the world. On February 26, local time, the Prime Minister of the Palestinian National Authority (Palestine**) announced the resignation of the current Palestinian ** at Ramallah, the residence of the Palestine.
Ashtiyah said the resignation was for a "new political arrangement" for the future of Palestine and to find a way out of the current crisis in Gaza and intra-Palestinian unity. The mainstream of the Arab and Western world** generally believes that pressure from the United States is the real reason: Biden **wants a new Palestine** that can effectively govern the territory, including the Gaza Strip, and thus push Israel to accept the "two-state solution".
Mohammed Mustafa, chairman of Palestinian Investment**, is seen by all parties as the only possible candidate for a new prime minister. Since 2005, the former World Bank economist has served as an economic adviser to Mahmoud Abbas, a Palestinian economist. In January this year, Mustafa, as Abbas's representative, led the Palestinian delegation to the Davos Economic Forum, which was considered "a signal for Ashtiyah."
Mustafa's identity and experience are close to that of former Prime Minister Fayyad, the most recognized by the United States in Palestinian history, which makes him seen as a possible leader who will continue the "Fayyad Doctrine" and carry out professional bureaucratic reforms against Palestine. But 10 years later, the current independence and support rating of Palestine are no longer the same as those of the Fayyad era.
No one, not even an angel, can achieve governance in today's Palestine**. On the evening of the 26th, Sayge, an expert on Middle East issues who had served as a senior adviser to Fayyad, told China News Weekly. The Economist magazine commented more bluntly: the new Palestinian prime minister will "face a nightmare".
On February 26, 2024 local time, in Ramallah, West Bank, Palestinian Prime Minister Ashtiyah delivered a speech at the ** weekly meeting and announced his resignation.
Captain in a rudderless ship
Since taking office in April 2019, Ashtiya has served as Palestinian prime minister for nearly five years, a term close to that of many of his predecessors. However, it is not easy to sort out what he has done. The only thing that is certain is that the major problems Ashtiye faced when he took office turned into even greater "nightmares" when he resigned.
In 1994, the Palestinian National Authority (PA) was established in the "Oslo Process" of the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, which theoretically has jurisdiction over more than 5 million Palestinian citizens in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, which are divided into zones A, B and C. However, before Ashtiya took office, the last joint ** attempt to unify the West Bank and the Gaza Strip failed. Since then, Hamas-controlled Gaza has never been subservient to Ashtiyah's leadership.
On the other hand, the influx of nearly a million illegal Israeli settlers into Area C and East Jerusalem over the past decade has sliced apart the areas of de facto Palestinian** control in the West Bank into isolated islands. By 2022, UN Special Rapporteur Michael Link noted that Israel's blockade of the West Bank already met the elements of "apartheid". In February this year, Israel** further planned to build more than 3,000 new houses in illegal settlements in the West Bank.
Ashtiye persevered in such an environment for five years. He has no right to register people, land and natural resources, to guarantee the movement of people between isolated islands, and to interfere with Israeli military and police access to Palestinian towns and cities to "enforce the law". On the international stage, it was the only resistance that Ashtyer, who was fluent in English, could do. But the "last straw" that crushed him was Israel's withholding of tax revenues.
According to the "Oslo Accords" arrangement, the Palestinians do not have basic financial powers, and Israel collects taxes on behalf of the Palestinians and then transfers the funds to the Palestinian side. Before Ashtiya came to power, Israel withheld about $10 million a month in taxes for various reasons, or 2 percent of Pakistan's budget. However, after Ashtiya came to power, Israel used the withholding of tax revenues as a way to suppress the Palestinian **international**.
In January 2023, the newly formed "most right-wing in history"** of Israel withheld $39 million in Pakistani tax revenue in a single attempt because of Ashtiye**'s lawsuit in the International Court of Justice. At that time, Ashtiye was able to respond that "Israel's blackmail will not stop our political and diplomatic struggle." After the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel's wartime cabinet has withheld nearly $300 million in Palestinian tax revenues at one time, and 130,000 employees in the civil service, medical and education sectors in the West Bank are facing a crisis of being unpaid.
The issue of funding was the focus of Ashtiye's last cabinet meeting, and the only response he could do was resign.
The 66-year-old was a deep participant in the peace process. Thirty years ago, it was he who led the Palestinian advance team at the Madrid Peace Conference and established the initial consensus with the Israeli representatives to start the peace process. Subsequently, he led the negotiation work in various areas such as legislation and economic development in the "Oslo Process".
The then young doctor of economics won the support of the Palestinian people and the respect of his opponents. But 30 years later, Ashtiyah is regarded by the public as a "puppet" of the Israeli occupation authorities, and is no longer considered a qualified negotiator by Israel**. His resignation came just before the Knesset passed a resolution rejecting the two-state solution.
"Veterans come out" to save the crisis?
Now, 69-year-old Mohammed Mustafa seems to be the new "savior" of Palestine.
After Ashtiyeh's resignation, Reuters, Al Jazeera and other reports said that Mahmoud Abbas is forming a "technocrat" who can gain international trust under the joint coordination of the United States and Arab countries, and Mustafa is the only suitable candidate for prime minister. Some reports also point out that Mustafa was recognized by the West for leading reconstruction efforts after the 2014 Gaza war.
I feel speechless about it. A person close to the top level of Palestine told China News Weekly that as early as after economist Fayyad was forced to resign as Palestinian prime minister in 2013, then Deputy Economic Prime Minister Mustafa was regarded by analysts as the most suitable prime minister, but he suddenly resigned in 2014, and the reason is still unknown.
Some say it was because the West was against the appointment at the time, they saw Fayyad improve his efficiency and Mustafa merged a series of governing bodies, but they were afraid that the Palestinians would really become capable of governing and thus threaten Israeli rule, so "they didn't really support reform." Others say that it was the 2014 Gaza war that stalled reconstruction efforts due to resistance from both Hamas and Israel, and drove Mustafa away.
What is certain is that Mustafa, like Fayyad and Ashtiyeh, is an economist who lacks his own faction within Palestine. This puts a question mark over his actual power. After Ashtiyeh's resignation, some analysts accused him of failing to reform and corruption during his tenure, but the stubborn illness within the Palestinian National Authority is not a one-day cold.
The European Foreign Affairs Committee report notes that since Abbas became Palestinian leader in 2004, governance capacity has declined dramatically as the ruling party Fatah and the militant group Hamas fight. Abbas's term of office was supposed to be 4 years, but in the past 20 years, Palestine has never held ** elections, but ** has been appointed to change the prime minister three times. The report argues that Ashtiyeh's power as prime minister is "minimal" compared to Abbas's.
As an old colleague of Ashtiyah, Sayq noted that the Palestinian National Authority was built on the basis of a peace process that, after the failure of the peace process, "could not justify its existence to the people", thus losing its mass base. A December 2023 poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research showed that 60 percent of respondents supported the dissolution of the present** and 90 percent wanted Abbas to resign.
Mustafa clearly realized the essence of the problem. In January, he said in Davos that the most important and best path now was for Palestinian statehood, and that "the sooner we act, the better." "Without a clear path to statehood, no Palestinian leader or organization can attain and maintain legitimacy. Sayig said.
The question is how to start the path to nationhood? As far as external factors are concerned, Israel's "post-war plan for Gaza" does not include the return of territory and the transfer of governance to Palestine**, and the United States and the European Union are trying to exert greater influence on Israel.
Since February, a number of countries and organizations have made greater strides to this end. Dutch court bans exports to Israel, UN Special Rapporteurs jointly call on Western countries to follow suit; Ireland** imposes sanctions on Israel; Britain's Prince William made a "rare voice" to call for a ceasefire; France** has also repeatedly stressed its clear position on an immediate ceasefire and the implementation of the two-state solution. However, most analysts believe that before the United States and Germany suspend military aid and exports to Israel, it is almost impossible for Israel to "change its mind."
As far as internal factors are concerned, how to deal with relations with Hamas is a difficult problem that the new Palestinian ** must face. At the end of February, the ruling party Fatah will meet with Hamas in Moscow with a view to achieving unified governance of Palestine. But Hamas's goal is clearly to "unite," and senior Hamas officials said that "Ashtiyeh's resignation will only make sense" if the two sides reach a consensus on the next phase of Palestinian political arrangements.
Reporter: Cao Ran.
Editor: Xu Fangqing.