At present, Indonesia's ** change is imminent, and Defense Minister Prabowo may become a new **, which has attracted attention.
But there are more complex factors behind it. Among them, the Philippines' provocation against China's islands and reefs in the South China Sea has attracted widespread attention.
The Philippines has adopted an amendment to redefine the scope of sovereignty over its territorial waters, in an attempt to reasonably obtain sovereignty over China's islands through legislative means. This move provoked a strong reaction from the international community, especially in the context of current international tensions, which is seen as an extremely provocative act.
The Philippine Department of Defense has even been more provocative in rhetoric, emphasizing its sovereignty over the Batanes Islands and warning China not to make provocative remarks about the Philippine military's increased military presence. This obvious provocation has re-strained China-Philippines relations.
It is worth noting that this series of actions is not accidental, and there may be more complex considerations behind it. On the one hand, the Philippines is trying to deflect domestic pressure and ease the pressure on the United States. At present, the United States is embroiled in multiple conflicts, including Russia, Ukraine, Palestine and Israel, coupled with the pressure of the upcoming election, the Philippines has made the South China Sea issue the focus of public attention and an inevitable choice.
Internal contradictions in the Philippines also contributed to this provocation. The tension between the former Duterte and the current Marcos Jr. has intensified, and Marcos Jr. is facing internally. Showing his defense of national sovereignty on the South China Sea issue through a tough stance is expected to increase Marcos Jr.'s public approval rating and win the initiative for political stability.
The Philippine provocation has not been without cost. China has made a clear response, emphasizing that the Taiwan Strait is China's core interest and calling on the Philippines to act cautiously and not play with fire. China and ASEAN member states are accelerating negotiations on a code of conduct in the South China Sea to provide a more standardized code of conduct for resolving disputes.
In the current international situation, the tension between China and the Philippines not only affects the two countries, but also arouses concern in the ASEAN region. At this time, Indonesia's ** change, Defense Minister Prabowo may become the new **, and his friendly attitude is crucial for regional stability.
Prabowo's father-in-law, Suharto, had a history of Chinese abuse, which also raises concerns about whether Indonesia will follow a similar path to the Philippines.
At this moment full of uncertainties, China-Indonesia relations and China-Philippines relations will play an important role in the new international landscape. In the face of unexpected situations, only by maintaining profound strategic thinking and calmly responding can we maintain regional peace and stability.
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