"The house is just a pile of bricks and cement, it's worthless! ”A few years ago, in the face of high housing prices, there was a person who boldly predicted housing prices**, which caused an uproar at the time, and many people scoffed.
However, as housing prices have continued to fall in recent years, the number of second-hand housing listings has surged, and the aging of elevator rooms has increased, this language seems to be realizing step by step.
Will Cao Dewang's prophecy come true? Where is the future way out of the elevator room on the twentieth and thirtieth floors in China?
When housing prices soared and excessive real estate investment intensified, Cao Dewang made it clear that houses were nothing more than physical objects made of reinforced concrete, essentially no different from ordinary commodities.
The aging of the population and the pursuit of living quality by the younger generationExisting high-density housing models will no longer be fit for future living needs.
He even predicted that house prices would fall sooner or later, especially for high-rise elevator residences in the future, which may be cut off a cliff. Real estate will transform from a seller's market to a buyer's market.
Therefore, he made a series of forward-looking suggestions for the situation in the real estate industry at that time.
The first is to regulate the real estate market. In Cao Dewang's view, we should play a regulatory role in the real estate market, curb the rapid housing prices, and prepare for the bubble of the real estate economy.
The second is to support the real economy. The real economy is the fundamental source of wealth creation, and he stressed that we should not rely too much on the real estate market, but should invest more support in the development of the real economy. Only by strengthening the development of the real economy can we truly achieve sustainable economic development.
It is believed that measures should also be taken to guide the flow of funds to the real economy, tighten real estate credit, restrict speculative trading, and curb the generation of unfinished buildings as soon as possible.
In addition, it is also important to promote supply-side structural reforms. Cao Dewang believes that we should optimize the allocation of resources, improve the quality of supply, take the initiative to promote the structural reform of the supply side, let the good money drive out the bad money, and take high-quality development as the primary purpose to meet market demand.
Finally, strengthen market supervision. Cao Dewang suggested that the supervision of the real estate market should be strengthened, illegal activities should be cracked down, speculation and speculation in the real estate market should be curbed, and the market order should be fair and just.
For landlords with multiple homes,He advised to sell properties as soon as possible before the bubble bursts, otherwise it will be difficult to escape the painful fate of the "buyer's market".
As soon as these remarks came out, those with vested interests were strongly dissatisfied, and even said that he was alarmist. But Cao Dewang only can't hear, firmly believes in his own judgment, and is active on online platforms and various social meetings to express his opinions.
However, later there was news on the Internet that Cao Dewang himself also has quite a luxurious property, and it can be found from the previous interview video that Cao Dewang has at least four mansions in the video, and there are wine cellars, private cinemas, swimming pools, etc. in the fourth mansionIt is also rumored that this mansion covers an area of four acres, cost about 70 million yuan, and took nearly three years to complete.
He has a lot of real estate, but he persuades others to stop flipping houses, this dishonest behavior makes his views much less convincing.
We don't know what the specific situation is, but the property market has maintained a false prosperity in those years, and not many people have listened to Cao Dewang's prediction.
As time passed, the rise in house prices stopped, and even appeared in some places.
According to statistics, by the end of 2023, the price of newly built housing in China's 100 cities will increase by about 0.27% over the whole year, but the increase is minimal. During the same period, the average second-hand item residential properties in Shanghai Baicheng fell by 3.53 percent, although the decline was 2.76 percentage points wider than that in 2022, but the month-on-month decline continued to fall by 3.53 percent in each month of the year.
Cao Dewang's prophecy seems to be coming true step by step? What should happen to the most affected second-hand houses and elevator rooms?
In the process of the property market downturn, the most difficult thing is undoubtedly the high-rise elevator room. The communal areas of these properties are huge, expensive to maintain, and their plight will be further exacerbated once they age.
Even more pessimistic,According to Cao Dewang's prophecy, the fate of the staircase on the twentieth and thirtieth floors is to become a slum.
First of all, let's talk about the generation of elevator rooms. Densely populated and limited land resources, in order to increase profit chips and make full use of limited land resourcesDevelopers began to adopt large-storey high-rise buildings, especially elevator rooms with twenty or thirty floors.
Let's talk about the problems that often occur in elevator rooms. In order to reduce housing prices and attract more people to buy, the common area of the general elevator house is 25% to 30% of the total area, compared to 10% to 15% of the average house. In this way,The cost of public maintenance shared by the owners will increase dramatically, and if there is a problem that needs to be repaired, it is often impossible to blame each other.
In addition, the cost of updating the equipment in the elevator room is extremely high. Elevators, weak currents, fire protection and other systems cost a lot of money to update once, and many owners are not willing to pay at all, only thinking about small repairs.
After 30 years of operation in high-rise buildings such as elevator rooms, basically many public equipment will ageIncluding elevators, wires, water pipes, etc., its maintenance rate, damage rate and risk factor will be greatly increased.
The most important point is that there are many potential safety hazards in the elevator room. First of all, the elevator room often has the problem of insufficient elevators, and many people are crowded in a small cubicle, which is easy to cause accidents such as congestion and cross-infection.
Once a fire breaks out, the elevator stops running, and people can only escape from the fire staircase, assuming that there are 3 people in a family, 2 houses in one floor, and 20 floors in a buildingThere are also more than a hundred people in one building. With two small escape routes, it is difficult to ensure the safety of everyone.
What's more, once it happens, every second counts, and it is difficult to avoid aftershocks and personal injury when running down from the high-rise of the 20th floor.
Since it's so bad, when you have money, let's renovate it, maybe you'll think so.
However, there are many owners of elevator houses, and it is difficult to adjustOnce such high-rise buildings enter the old age, the difficulty of renovation or demolition is really comparable to mountaineering.
The owners are not unified, let alone go to the contractor to coordinate and seek the best support?
The elevator room is likely to fall into a vicious circle of decay of public facilities, environmental pollution, increased safety hazards, and quarrels between villagers and neighbors.
In the end, as Cao Dewang predicted, it became a poor grotto in the city.
Looking back at the history of China, it is a history of indomitable resistance against Japan. Even if the prophecy is so, we can still fight. If you live in an elevator room on the twentieth or thirty floors or want to buy such a houseDon't be discouraged, not all elevator rooms will be slums.
Do the following points, and the elevator room on the twenty or thirty floors can also give us a safe and comfortable environment.
First of all, high-rise residential buildings have a lifespan of 80 years. If the supervision is not in place or the building materials are not up to standard during construction, the life of the building will be shortened. Therefore, when purchasing, it is necessary to look for reliable and powerful developers.
Secondly, the most important maintenance of the elevator room is the elevator maintenance, and it is more important than anything else to maintain this one. Here it is recommended that you go with other ownersFormulate an annual schedule for elevator maintenance and supervise workers and other owners to strictly comply with safety operating procedures when the elevator is undergoing maintenance and maintenance.
The most important thing is to carry out regular maintenance of the elevator to increase the service life. However, you can leave this point to professional people to do, the elevator manufacturing unit is responsible for the quality of the elevator and the quality of the safe operation, find the problem in time, contact them to repair and maintain, you can achieve unimpeded passage and ensure the safety of the occupants.
Or come up with a new solution to extend the life of the elevator. According to reports, in an old community in Hangzhou, the elevator company installed a new elevator in the community, and paid by the time like a bus, one dollar at a time. The advantage is that the pre-construction and post-maintenance costs are fully borne by the elevator company, which eliminates the worries of the owners.
Even if there is a very serious problem of aging, according to the guidance on comprehensively promoting the renovation of old urban communities, in order to save the cost of demolition and relocation of household heads, avoid large-scale demolition and relocation, and cause unnecessary waste, the renovation of old communities has been included in the key livelihood projects in recent years.
It can be seen that we are also actively exploring feasible ways to help people solve such problems, and we are never just the owners who are struggling.
If you take 10,000 steps back, if you really get to the point of demolition, seek help from the best people, or actively ask for help from companies and enterprises in the society, you can also get a lot of compensation or subsidies.
For example, in 2018, the demolition of Shenzhen's largest urban village, even if it is not as exaggerated as the rumor that 1,878 billionaires will be born overnight, the real compensation value of each household is hundreds of millions of yuan.
In addition, it is also important to clean up the debris in the escape route in time and elect a strong owner to speak on behalf of the owner.
In an era when Cao's prediction seems to have come true, both home buyers and investors should make informed decisions based on their own actual situation and market trends. You must not beat the elevator room on the twentieth or thirtieth floor to death with a stick.
Against the backdrop of China's real estate market being affected by many unstable factors, Cao Dewang's prediction was sharp and thorough, which caused a lot of attention and controversy.
If his prophecy comes true, different types of properties will face different fates. For high-end properties and ordinary residences, the market outlook is relatively stable and optimistic. But for the twenty or thirty floor elevator room, there will indeed be no sale, and finally the cliff type will be realized.
However, changes in the real estate market are inevitable, **only temporary, and the property market will still pick up after a period of time**.