The warbler cries the swallow to report the New Year, and there are thousands of Longdui Road in Mayi.
During every long holiday, the most popular places are nothing more than two places;
One is the movie,The data shows that the total box office of the Spring Festival stalls in 2024 has now exceeded 6 billion, and the popularity of "Hot and Hot" controlled by Xinli Media, "Flying Life 2" participated by Hengdian Film and Television, and "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" participated by Wanda Film is still very good.
Especially "Hot and Hot" starring Jia Ling, it even ignited the ** pharmaceutical industry again. In the fourth quarter, Bridgewater significantly increased its holdings in the leading pharmaceutical Eli Lilly; In response to surging market demand, Novo Nordisk announced that it would spend $11 billion to acquire three bottling plants to expand its first-class drug production capacity.
Recently, Novo Nordisk semaglutide tablets were approved for the indication of type 2 diabetes, and they have also become the first oral GLP-1 receptor agonist approved for marketing in China, further opening up the expectation of future indications.
Data shows that the number of overweight people in the world reached 2.6 billion in 2020, and it is expected to exceed 4 billion by 2035, a significant increase to about half of the total population.
GLP-1 is the first choice for hypoglycemic and weight-loss indications, and the global market size of GLP-1 is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2030.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream Haofan Biology and Jinkai Bioscience; WuXi AppTec, Hanyu Pharmaceutical, Sirnaomics, and Aurisco in the midstream; The downstream Hengrui Pharmaceutical, Huadong Pharmaceutical, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, etc. will fully benefit from the explosive dividend of first-class drug demand.
One is tourism, and the situation of full tourist attractions during the long holiday is presented again.
For example, in Hainan, travel orders on the first day of the holiday increased by 42% year-on-year, and the number of tickets for scenic spots increased by 298%, and the duty-free outlying islands rebounded sharply.
From the perspective of the whole year, the number of domestic tourists is expected to exceed 6 billion in 2024, and the tourism revenue is expected to exceed 6 trillion, even exceeding the highest level in 2019.
We found an interesting phenomenon, since 2010, the overall number of tourists and consumption scale of China's tourism industry has continued to rise, but standing under the trillion track, 20 tourism listed companies have not shown the characteristics of growth stocks such as Moutai, Gree Electric Appliances, and Haitian Flavor Industry.
The most typical ones such as Guilin Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, Changbai Mountain, Xi'an Tourism, Lijiang Tourism, etc., have not been sluggish in terms of revenue and profits in the past 10 years.
So, what is the reason for this situation?
If the company wants to grow, it needs continuous growth in revenue and profits, and the most direct response is that either the product sales are good, or the price can continue to rise.
At present, listed tourism companies are basically scenic spots, which leads to the company facing a problem of volume and price.
In terms of volume, although there is a full situation every holiday, the tourist season is concentrated in those holidays, and the attractions have the maximum carrying capacity, which makes it basically impossible for tourist attractions to increase the flow of tourists.
In terms of price, in recent years, the relevant people have actively promoted the price reduction of tickets, and the price increase is even more impossible.
At the same time that the volume and price cannot be released, the listed companies in the scenic spot category are also facing the pressure of rising labor and other costs every year, which leads to the extremely weak risk resistance of profits.
As a result, travel companies have basically no growth to speak of, despite being a trillion-dollar market.
So, are there any unique companies?
If you want to break this situation, you must also look at the volume and price, as the absolute duty-free leader, the ceiling of industry penetration is far from reaching, and with the recovery of the next economic cycle, it is expected to usher in the performance and valuation of Davis double-click.
In addition to China Duty Free, Songcheng Performing Arts is the most clear growth logic in the tourism industry.
Songcheng Performing Arts is the only A-share listed performing arts theme park listed company, mainly relying on unique forms of romance to create attractions, such as Hangzhou Songcheng Eternal Love, Sanya Eternal Love, Lijiang Eternal Love, etc., the business organization is very simple.
Just recently, 38 institutions investigated Songcheng Performing ArtsIncluding mainstream public offering institutions such as CEIBS**, E Fund**, and Wells Fargo**, which are also the only ones in the tourism industry.
So, where is the unique growth logic of Songcheng Performing Arts?
First, the industry is large enough.
As we said earlier, the overall scale of China's tourism industry is growing, of which the growth rate of the tourism market is faster, since 2010 has maintained a compound annual growth rate of more than 10%, aside from the impact of the past three years, the future penetration rate growth rate is still unabated.
Second, the logic of both volume and price rise is hard.
Huangshan tourism can no longer replicate a Huangshan, but the model of Songcheng performing arts can be replicated, which is unique.
The company's core revenue is the eternal love series, creating one, maturing one, and reserving one.
At present, Songcheng Performing Arts has been completed and is under construction, including Hangzhou, Sanya, Lijiang, Jiuzhai, Guilin, Zhangjiajie, Xi'an, Shanghai and other eternal love series.
And it has achieved the largest share of the romance industry, accounting for 165% rose to 32% in 2021.
The replication of this model allows the company to continue to increase passenger flow, and Songcheng Performing Arts has independent pricing power and the logic of volume and price release.
At present, the company's model has been very mature, the ramp-up period of new projects is very short, 2 years of profitability, 3-4 years of return to investment, under normal circumstances, the gross profit margin of mature projects can exceed 70%, and the net profit margin is more than 50%. This kind of profitability is very strong.
Third, the asset-light model has strong anti-risk ability.
As we mentioned above, the company's stable net profit margin can be as high as 50%, which is also due to the company's asset-light model.
The replication and expansion of Songcheng performing arts projects follows an asset-light model, and the company provides brand authorization, custody and operation to partners, charging 20% of the management fee, even if the initial investment is only 4900 million yuan, compared with the investment of tens of billions of dollars in Disney and Fangte, the risk is extremely small.
On January 30, 2024, Songcheng Performing Arts' 2023 annual report forecast showed that the company's net profit was -09.7 billion to -18.2 billion yuan, which is mainly caused by the impairment of Huafang Group, if this is deducted, the company's profit is 7500 million yuan to 900 million yuan, to achieve a significant performance reversal.
In addition, after the provision of this impairment, the company can also travel lightly, which is not a bad thing.
Therefore, in the trillion-scale tourism industry, listed companies in the scenic spot category are facing the problem of volume and price, which is difficult to solve. As the only scarce romance company, Songcheng Performing Arts has a replicable model, with the logic of rising volume and price, and its growth is clear.
Follow Feijing Investment Research (ID: feijingtouyan) and receive the most valuable "Growth 20: 20 Companies with the Most Growth Potential in 2023" investment report now!
**: Flying Whale Investment Research