In the past year, 9 of the 13 listed automakers announced their sales targets for 2023, but only 2 automakers - BYD and Geely - achieved 100% KPIs in the end.
BYD sold a total of 302 last year440,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 623%, exceeding the sales target of 3 million, of course, BYD also paid the price of blood; Geely's cumulative sales in 2023 will reach 168650,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 177%, which not only exceeded the sales target, but also broke the previous sales record.
Now that the progress bar for 2024 has reached 1 12, 11 car companies have clearly set a flag for themselves. A more significant trend is that the sales targets of traditional car companies are generally more stable, while the new forces tend to be aggressive, especially in the world, where the sales target of 600,000 units in 2024 is equivalent to a year-on-year increase of 600%.
GAC Group: 2.75 million units
2024 is a critical year for GAC to accelerate the construction of a "trillion GAC", so this year GAC will challenge the target of 10% year-on-year sales growth, which means that GAC will achieve sales of at least 2.75 million units.
Looking back on 2023, GAC has sold a total of 250 new cars50,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1292%, and its new energy business achieved 54960,000 sales, an increase of 7755%。But there is also a gloom behind the growth. In 2023, the total sales of GAC Aion's new cars will exceed 480,000 units, contributing nearly 20% of GAC's sales, but Aion's 480,000 sales will contribute more than half of the B-end online car-hailing market.
According to the existing data, a research institute mentioned in the new energy market interpretation report in July last year that only 41% of GAC Aion's sales in July 2023 are owned by individuals, and nearly 60% of sales come from the online car-hailing market; Previously, CITIC** also conducted statistics that from 2020 to the first half of 2021, the "AION S", as the main sales model of GAC Aion, accounted for about 60%-70% of sales in the leasing market.
Therefore, for GAC, it is as important to think about how to achieve the high-end of its new energy brand in 2024 as it is to pursue 10% growth.
Geely Automobile: 1.9 million units
As mentioned above, 2023 is a bumper year for Geely Automobile, and 2024 is the year for Geely Automobile's restart. Geely Automobile's sales target for this year is 1.9 million units, of which new energy sales increased by more than 66%. In order to achieve annual sales of 1.9 million vehicles, it means that Geely Automobile needs to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 13% this year, which is objectively reasonable, so Geely Automobile is still expected to exceed its target this year.
According to Geely's financial report for the first half of 2023, Geely's fuel vehicle sales increased by 6% year-on-year, and this 6% growth is particularly valuable in the first half of 2023, when the fuel vehicle market fell by 3% year-on-year.
In the new energy vehicle market, Geely focuses on a multi-brand strategy, and the cumulative sales volume of the Zeekr brand in 2023 will be 118685 units, a year-on-year increase of 65%; The Galaxy sequence has been launched from the first product at the end of May 2023 to the cumulative sales of more than 830,000, it took only 7 months. At the end of last year, Pole also booked the Extreme Krypton 007 and Galaxy E8, two models that are expected to become explosives, a subversion of the 800V pure electric B-class car system, a benchmark Xiaopeng P7, Model 3 but the starting price is pulled to less than 200,000, presumably this year's Geely new energy sales can go to a higher level.
Great Wall Motor: 1.9 million units
In 2023, Great Wall will sell about 1.23 million vehicles, although it will increase by 15% year-on-year29%, but only 77% of the 2023 target has been achieved; This year, Great Wall's sales target is the same as Geely's, which is 1.9 million units. To be honest, it may be a bit difficult for Great Wall to achieve this goal, because achieving this goal means that Great Wall needs to achieve more than 54% growth this year.
At present, Great Wall has brands such as Haval, WEY, Tank, Ora, and Great Wall pickup. However, among them, only the two brands that contributed the most to the sales of the Great Wall and grew the fastest were Haval and Tank. According to the data, Haval's sales in 2023 will reach 715188, a year-on-year increase of 1600%, accounting for about 58% of the total sales volume of the Great Wall; The cumulative sales of tanks in 2023 will be 162539, a year-on-year increase of 3121%, accounting for about 13% of Great Wall's sales.
But now, the original positioning of the Haval brand biased towards the family SUV and the positioning of the hard-core off-road tank gradually converged, the new generation of Haval H9 replaced with a "square box" shape, plus retro round light group, classic horizontal chrome, square side opening tailgate, so that the replacement of Haval H9, more and more like the tank 500 replacement. I don't know if there will be a 1+1 2 situation in the Haval + tank this year.
Changan Group: 2.8 million units
Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan, who was misunderstood by the whole network some time ago, established a development goal for 2024 at the Changan Automobile Partner Conference on January 16: the group's sales volume will be 2.8 million vehicles, an increase of 9% over the same period in 20237%, with a market share of more than 91%。
Last year, Changan Automobile sales reached 25530,000 units, an increase of 8% year-on-year compared to 202282% and the target completion rate is 9118%。The cumulative sales volume for the whole year of 2022 is 23460,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 198% and a target completion rate of 958%。According to the trend reflected in this set of data, Changan's 2024 target is relatively stable, and the probability of successful KPI completion is high.
Specific to its various business segments, in 2024, Changan's new energy business will strive to achieve the sales target of 750,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 559%, of which the focus is on the development of Changan Qiyuan, with a sales target of 250,000 units, 280,000 units of Deep Blue, and 90,000 units of AVATAR. In order to achieve this goal, Changan will vigorously expand the new energy product matrix this year.
In the first quarter of this year, Changan's world's first extended-range pickup, Changan Hunter, began to be delivered; In the second quarter, the Deep Blue hard-core SUV G318 was launched; In the third quarter, AVATAR's second SUV E15, Deep Blue C857, and Changan Kaicheng G393 were unveiled; In the fourth quarter, the new car CD701, AVATR mid-size coupe E16, Changan Qiyuan C798, Changan Mazda J90A and other products will join the product lineup. With so many new products launched, sales may be stable, but I don't know if Chang'an New Energy's profits can improve this year.
At the same time, Chang'an is also speeding up the pace of sailing. In 2024, Changan's sales target in overseas markets is 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 332%, Southeast Asia is its main export position. In terms of export models, Changan will introduce seven new energy products in the Southeast Asian market, including AVATR 11, LUMIN, and CD701. With the joint efforts of domestic and foreign markets, it should not be difficult for Changan to sell 2.8 million vehicles in the whole year.
Li Auto: 800,000 units
In 2023, Li Xiang is the only one among the new forces to exceed the sales target, and this year Li Xiang will make persistent efforts and set a target of 800,000.
In 2023, Ideal will deliver a total of 376,030 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1822%, 125% achieved the annual sales target of 300,000 units, and achieved the two goals of monthly deliveries exceeding 50,000 units and monthly deliveries of a single model exceeding 20,000 units.
If we want to achieve the KPI of 800,000 units this year, the ideal year-on-year growth rate will be 1127%, the average monthly sales need to reach 670,000 units. Can the ideal be realized? Personally, it seems to be a bit hanging.
Last year, the ideal has been hit by the question, and it is unknown whether it will be able to withstand Huawei's momentum this year. Although this year's ideal will launch the **lower**L6, which may attract a wave of users with a budget of less than 300,000, there is also a recent return to the M7 in this range, in November 2023, the 2024 model M7 delivered 15,242 units, an increase of 25% month-on-month, and 20,611 units were delivered in December, an increase of more than 35% month-on-month. If Wenjie can maintain this growth momentum this year, the ideal L6 is estimated to be a headache.
In addition, how much sales can the 500,000-priced pure electric MPV MEGA provide for Ideal? It also seems to be difficult. If the 500,000 cars can be walked, it can only be said that there are so many rich people in China.
Wenjie Motors: 600,000 units
In 2023, the total delivery volume of Wenjie will be 94,380 units, and the main model Wenjie M7 will contribute more than 66% of the volume by itself. I have to say that Huawei's potential energy is really strong, and it has pulled the question world back from the edge of the cliff.
This year, the target conveyed to suppliers is to deliver 600,000 vehicles a year, which is equivalent to a year-on-year increase of 600% on the basis of 2023, and the average monthly delivery volume will reach 50,000. Well, this goal is very "Yu Dazui".
Although it's a bit scary to look at this goal, but who made the question world launched by Cialis and Huawei together, considering Huawei's ability to overcome difficulties, maybe the question world can really create miracles.
Leapmotor: 300,000-400,000 units
In 2023, Leapmotor will deliver a total of 144155 vehicles, set an annual sales target of 200,000 units at the beginning of the year, and only 72% of it has been completed in the past year, and this year's sales target is 30-400,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 108%-178%.
Its confidence may come from its many new cars in 2024 - Leap C10 and Leap C16, both of which are expected to be priced within 200,000. In this year when the new energy of its own brand is becoming more and more expensive, the Mixue Bingcheng in the car circle can best soothe the hearts of the poor.
Last year, Leaprun and Stellantis reached a global strategic partnership, creating the first new model of reverse joint venture to go overseas, and I wonder if the overseas market can become a major boost to promote Leaprun's sales growth this year.
Nezha Automobile: 300,000 units
In 2022, Nezha will be a dark horse among the new forces, but in 2023, Nezha will become the only car company among the new forces with declining sales, and the annual target completion rate will not even be 50%.
In 2024, Nezha vows to get up from where it fell and continue to hit the sales target of 300,000 units, including 200,000 units sold domestically and 100,000 units overseas.
The domestic sales target of 200,000 units will not be easy to achieve. Last year, the sales of Nezha's two main models both fell year-on-year, Nezha U's sales fell by 18% year-on-year, and Nezha V's sales fell by 62% year-on-year6%, Nezha U's decline is still under the premise of the overall growth of the market segment. The reason is that BYD Seagull and Wu0 Binguo have more brand power and one more cost-effective, comparing Nezha V; BYD Song Plus and Ai'an Y are still better in brand power, and the other is backed by state-owned enterprises with rich resources, which dwarfs Nezha U.
However, Nezha L will come out this year, SUV is a more popular model among Chinese people, and the track is broader, and it will depend on the pricing and product power of this car.
As for the overseas market, Nezha's exports exceeded 20,000 units last year, and Southeast Asia is the main export position.
Xpeng Motors: 280,000 units
Xiaopeng is another new force that will climb up from the trough in 2023. Last year, Xpeng delivered 141601 vehicles in total, and driven by the cost-effective G6, Xpeng's target completion rate last year was 708%。Xpeng's sales target for this year is about 280,000 units, and even if this goal cannot be fully achieved, Xpeng's sales performance this year will not be too far from the target. There are the following reasons for making such a **:
Last year, the biggest challenge faced by Xiaopeng's new main G6 is that the production capacity cannot keep up, the delivery cycle is too long, and some users may be lost as a result. In addition, P5 streamlines the number of SKUs from 7 to 2, reducing the cost of user decision-making; Xpeng will launch 3-4 new cars that are more close to the people to further expand the product line.
Xpeng's sales capabilities are also improving. In the first three quarters of last year, Xpeng closed nearly 100 sales stores with poor performance, and launched the "Jupiter Project" in Q3 2023, completing the investment promotion of more than 100 new sales stores. In the future, Xiaopeng's channels are expected to operate in a more logical way, and there is a high probability that different channels can eliminate each other's digging of each other's feet.
NIO: 230,000 units
After a series of major events such as the unbundling of rights, the launch of ES6, and the reduction of ET5 prices and inventory clearance, NIO has changed from "Wei 10,000" to "Wei 15,000" in 2023, and handed over a report card of 160038 sales throughout the year, but it only completed 65 of the 2023 target3%。
This year, I haven't heard that NIO has plans to release a new car, probably because of this, NIO's sales target this year is lower than last year's, and last year's target was 2450,000 units, but only 230,000 this year. This means that NIO only needs to reach an average of 20,000 monthly sales to achieve its goal. It can be seen from the goal that NIO is more pragmatic and has a more realistic understanding of the general environment, which is a good thing, after all, only by clearly recognizing the cruelty of reality and its own limitations can we hope to transcend the cruel reality.
Zhiji Automobile: 120,000-130,000 units
As SAIC's own son, Zhiji has always carried SAIC's high-end dream, but unfortunately consumers don't buy it, just look at the delivery volume in 2023, only 38,253 vehicles, which is really miserable.
The sales target for 2024 is 120,000-130,000 units, which is also a relatively pragmatic goal. In October last year, the LS6 was launched, and since then, it has maintained sales of nearly 10,000 units in November and December. As long as Zhiji LS6 can maintain an average monthly sales of 10,000 this year, it should not be too much of a problem for Zhiji to achieve the sales target of 12-130,000.