Author: Xiao Bin
Researcher at the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Western countries have realized that helping Ukraine regain lost land and win will be difficult to achieve in 2024. To this end, Western countries have introduced a series of measures to deal with the war of attrition.It is difficult for people who have not experienced the war firsthand to understand the difficulties of the war, so Western countries cannot foresee more resistance in the war in Ukraine, which stands out more than the uncertainty of aid to Ukraine.
At the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, Ukraine** Zelensky said that 2024 will be a decisive year and hopes that Western countries will continue to provide military assistance. At the same time, he pointed out that Western countries have lost precious time to Ukraine in order to avoid further escalation of the war, resulting in the loss of lives of many Ukrainian soldiers. The policy of Western countries not to over-provoke Russia has led to insufficient aid and slow progress in Ukraine, which is one of the main reasons why Russia has taken the opportunity to expand its offensive.
Drag the West into a war of attrition
Despite the high cost, Russia has shifted its economy to military Keynesianism. This is supported by two key variables: first, in the face of inflation and the fact that the Russian public is still not demanding an end to the war; Second, high oil prices have weakened the impact of economic sanctions.
On January 16, 2024, Ukraine** Zelensky attended the Davos Economic Forum and delivered a speech.
Since the outbreak of the war, the international *** has been hovering between $70 and $100 per barrel for a long time, which has left Russia with ample war funds. According to a Reuters survey, Brent*** will still reach 84 per barrel in 2024$43. Russia's budget spends 6% of GDP on military spending in 2024. Russia's main purpose in opting for military Keynesianism is to serve the war and drag the West into a war of attrition.
Russia's minimum goal is clear, which is to drag the war in Ukraine before the United States. However, according to the Bank of Russia's external** data released on January 19, 2024, Russia's balance of payments account surplus fell by 40% compared to 2022. At this rate, while dragging Western countries into a war of attrition, Russia will also be unable to support a long-term war of attrition.
The biggest resistance comes from within
The side of Western countries that support aid to Ukraine believes that the cost of arming Ukraine is low, and the cost of Russian victory is high. At the same time, it is understandable to question the increase in war spending, but the questioning is short-sighted, because if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, then Western countries will have to pay a higher price. U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell commented on October 20, 2023, "The Ukrainians are destroying the military of one of our biggest competitors. It's hard for me to find anything wrong with that."
On September 25, 2019, the then US Trump held a meeting with Zelensky of Ukraine in New York.
However, many Western political elites disagree with McConnell's position. In the United States, Republicans insist on conditional assistance to Ukraine, while the position of Trump and his adherents is more extreme. Trump said that I will tell Ukraine ** Zelensky that the United States will no longer aid Ukraine, and that Ukraine and Russia must reach an agreement. The same problem arose in Europe, where in June 2023 the German far-right AfD won local elections, calling for an end to sanctions against Moscow and ending Russia's war in Ukraine, arguing that the United States is deliberately using the war in Ukraine to deliberately ** Eurasia to serve its own interests.
Deal with a war of attrition
Western countries have realized that helping Ukraine regain lost land and win will be difficult to achieve in 2024. To this end, Western countries have introduced a series of measures to deal with the war of attrition, including:
Maintain high-intensity military assistance to Ukraine, and improve Ukraine's strike capability and air defense capability in the depth of Russia's logistical supply. Such as reducing restrictions on the Army's tactical missile systems (ATACAMS), speeding up the entry of F-16s into the Ukrainian theater of operations, providing more advanced artillery and anti-tank missiles, expanding Ukraine's ** production capacity, helping Ukraine build and strengthen concrete defenses in the east, and so on.
Deterring the Russian flank with NATO military force. On January 18, NATO announced the launch of its largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War, called Steadfast Defenders 2024, with about 90,000 NATO personnel participating. The Baltic states also plan to create a defense network consisting of concrete bunkers.
Ongoing economic sanctions against Russia, in particular, the expansion of sanctions against entities of third countries associated with Russian military-industrial complex. Other economic sanctions include further expanding restrictions on dual-use goods and technologies, advanced technologies, and goods that could help increase Russia's industrial capacity.
Seek cooperation with China. Since the outbreak of the war, Western countries have believed that China can play an important role in ending Ukraine's war with Russia. However, Western countries are also well aware that if they continue to view China as a security threat (NATO's expression), it will be difficult to cooperate with China on the Ukraine peace process.