Visual China.
In February 2024, the birth of SORA once again shocked the global technology community, and also made the ** industry feel the "dominance" of AI.
The birth of SORA is a big step closer to AGI", Qi Boquan, general manager of Wondershare Technology AI Innovation Center, said to Titanium **APP, "AGI has AI equivalent to human intelligence, and an AGI can perform any intellectual task that a human can complete and can process arbitrary data." As we all know, after text and images, SORA has expanded to the best field, which is a model that can understand and simulate the real world, which is an important milestone in the realization of AGI. ”
While SORA brings a variety of shocking experiences, PCs, mobile phones and other terminals are also strengthening the integration with AI large model technology. At the CES held at the beginning of the year, AI became the protagonist of the exhibition. On the first day after the Spring Festival, Meizu announced that it would stop investing in new projects for traditional smartphones and release AI device hardware products within the year. On the same day, OPPO also announced its strategic outlook for AI.
AI mobile phones will be the third major stage of change in the mobile phone industry after feature phones and smart phones", Liu Zuohu, chief product officer of OPPO, pointed out, "In the era of AI mobile phones, the mobile phone industry and user experience will usher in revolutionary changes." ”
Mobile phone manufacturer AI large model, titanium **APP mapping.
At present, Huawei, Xiaomi, Honor, OPPO, vivo and other mobile phone manufacturers have released new flagship products equipped with device-side large models. Compared with the cloud model, the device-side model is more secure in terms of privacy and security, as well as the corresponding speed.
IDC predicts that the global shipment of a new generation of AI mobile phones will reach 1700 million units, accounting for about 15% of overall smartphone shipments. In the Chinese market, with the rapid iteration of new chips and user use scenarios, the share of the new generation of AI mobile phones will rise rapidly after 2024, reaching 1500 million units, with a market share of more than 50%.
It can be said that in the current environment, in view of the lack of market innovation, AI has become a story that mobile phone manufacturers have to tell. Regardless of whether the technology is mature or not, whether the strategy is clear or not, only when it is served first can you be qualified to share the cake.
At the same time, under the new concept of AI mobile phones, the entire upstream and downstream industry chain will also bring a new round of innovation, but it is still unknown how many users can be stimulated by this innovation.
Ivan Lam, a senior analyst at Counterpoint, pointed out to the Titanium App, "The penetration of AI will eventually become one of the must-have functions of smartphones." And the replacement, in the case of rational consumption, is more considered when the performance is insufficient. ”
Since last year, everyone has been looking forward to the combination of AI models and consumer terminals. IDC predicts that in 2024, more than 70% of the Chinese market will be equipped with AI-functional terminal devices, and AI terminals will account for 55%. Dr. Jiping Wang, Vice President of IDC China, pointed out that distributed AI deployment will promote the ubiquity of AI in terminals, further increasing the penetration rate of AI in terminal applications.
At this stage, a series of discussions have also been sparked about mobile phones, PCs, tablets, and smart speakers, as to who is the first AI inclusive terminal. Previously, Shen Ziyu, chairman of Xingji Meizu Group, believed, "Only when your human-computer interaction changes fundamentally, your hardware will be different and have the opportunity for users to remember, and AR glasses are the best carrier of AI models." ”
However, in the view of the titanium **app, before becoming a mass consumer product, the narrow audience of AR glasses and the lack of performance and computing power, coupled with the lack of application level and industrial chain, it is difficult to make it the first terminal of the AI large model inclusive.
IDC analysts pointed out to the titanium app that mobile phones, PCs and tablets, these three terminals currently integrate relatively high computing power and application foundation, which can well support some AI functions in the future and carry higher application value. Due to performance reasons, PCs are usually considered to be the first inclusive terminals, but in combination with the use scenarios and frequencies, the integration and perception of AI mobile phones will be stronger in the future.
rabbit r1
Of course, with the emergence of new AI devices such as AI PIN and Rabbit R1, there are also voices that believe that mobile phones will be replaced by new forms. Meizu's official announcement of "All in AI" is to design a new AI device. In this regard, Titanium Technology believes that in the era of new AI empowerment, the emergence of new AI equipment is inevitable, but as for who is the best carrier, it is still a mobile phone at present.
And, when talking about the concept of "replacement", any new device should be upgraded without degrading the original experience. At present, AI PIN and Rabbit R1 are not the answer. As some netizens jokingly said, "After looking around, the best 'AI device' is still a smartphone."
Regarding this problem, Liu Zuohu also bluntly said that at least within 10 years, mobile phones are still the most important form. "I can't say that there are no other forms, for example, I have also seen that there is an AI pin, etc., which may become a toy or a certain device in a specific scene, but the main device must be a mobile phone. ”
At the same time, he also believes that although mobile phones were called smartphones in the past, they were not smart, but after the new AI technology really turned mobile phones into smartphones, it truly realized user-centricity. What is user-centricity? It's that everyone should have a super assistant to make this phone understand me.
IDC believes that the mission of AI mobile phones is to solve user pain points, liberate users from fragmentation and complexity, and allow users to return to themselves and value. "AI mobile phones*** pointed out that the new generation of AI mobile phones has four major capabilities: AI mobile phones must first be able to efficiently use computing resources to meet the computing needs of generative AI in the AI era; At the same time, AI mobile phones should be able to keenly perceive the real world and understand the complex information of users and the environment. AI phones also need to have strong self-learning capabilities; In addition, AI mobile phones will also have more creative capabilities, providing users with continuous inspiration and knowledge support.
To put it simply, the future of AI mobile phones will move from cookie-cutter to personalization, from single-modality to multi-modal fusion. AI personal assistants can understand complex needs and provide a smarter, more personalized, and more intimate service experience. To solve the complex task scenarios of users with high frequency and high perception, the multi-modal system-level AI experience will liberate users from the complex operation of mobile phone usage scenarios.
***idc
"IDC expects a significant increase in the number of new generation of AI mobile phones from 2024 onwards, driving a new wave of replacements. IDC expects to ship 37 million new generation AI mobile phones in the Chinese market in 2024 and reach 1500 million units and a new generation of AI mobile phones account for more than 50% of the market share. ”
Relevant statistics show that 54% of the world's population (about 4.3 billion people) own smart phones, and mobile phones have changed from communication tools to users' wallets, devices, portable PCs, keys, etc., and have penetrated into all aspects of users' lives. The average time users use mobile phones is more than 6 hours a day, and mobile phones have become users' personal partners.
As the current "first" terminal, every technological innovation will affect the upgrading of hundreds of upstream and downstream industrial chains. While AI mobile phones provide a more intelligent experience, they will inevitably put forward higher requirements for the hardware of the mobile phone, such as memory, SoC, screen, and image. IDC pointed out that 16GB RAM will become the basic configuration of the new generation of AI mobile phones, and it is also the minimum requirement for the new generation of AI mobile phones.
At the same time, as the key to supporting AI mobile phones, mobile phone processors will also usher in further upgrades. Minsheng ** has released a research report saying that the "miniaturization" and "offline" models have emerged, and the iteration of edge-side terminals and chips is expected to accelerate.
At present, Qualcomm and MediaTek have also successively released the latest flagship chips that run through the large model on the end side, such as the third-generation Snapdragon 8 mobile platform can run through the 10 billion parameter large model on the terminal, and the Dimensity 9300 can support the terminal to run 1 billion, 7 billion, 13 billion, up to 33 billion parameters of the AI large language model.
Visual China.
This round of AI mobile phone upgrades and changes will also reshuffle the mobile phone processor market again. Guanzhou Chen, Managing Director and General Manager of MediaTek, said: "As a mobile intelligent twin, AI mobile phones will redefine the smart phone experience with innovative applications that subvert our imagination, and will also open a new innovation cycle for the entire industry. ”
For MediaTek, it has always wanted to make achievements in the high-end market, and AI mobile phones have become another opportunity to prove themselves. In addition to high-end flagships, it is also a test for processor manufacturers to occupy the mid-range market and let more people feel the capabilities of AI mobile phones. After all, AI is not exclusive to high-end products, it should be an inclusive technology.
The experience has come up, the hardware has improved, and with it, the cost has increased, which will also push the smartphone ASP up further. This has a contradiction: the launch of AI mobile phones is to let users perceive the arrival of the next generation of mobile phones, which is supposed to drive a new round of replacement. However, the increase in terminal prices, how many consumers are willing to buy it, this is a very key issue. As we all know, the performance of mobile phones is excessive, users' desire to change phones is very low, and AI mobile phones have not reached a mature state.
Titanium **APP found that on the official website of OPPO, the newly released Find X7 series has been labeled as "AI". It can be expected that in the future, more domestic brands will advertise themselves as AI mobile phones. At present, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, and OV are also increasing their investment in AI.
OPPO official website.
For OPPO, AI is the most important thing in the next new era. In terms of investment, we can say that there is no upper limit", talking about the investment in AI, Liu Zuohu said, "In the early stage of technological development, everyone will definitely not look at the return first, whether it is determined that this general trend is the most important." ”
In addition to domestic mobile phones, Samsung has already played the slogan "AI for All", and Apple, which has always been "conservative", has also made new progress in AI. As mentioned at the beginning of the article, in the current environment, in view of the lack of market innovation, AI has become a story that mobile phone manufacturers have to tell. Regardless of whether the technology is mature or not, whether the strategy is clear or not, only when it is served first can you be qualified to share the cake.
Regardless of whether the direction of AI mobile phones is right or wrong, in the case that most manufacturers are on the table, there are also many brands that are forced to go to the table, and they have not thought clearly about how to develop in the future, but they just think that it is definitely right to follow the crowd. However, unlike "traditional" smartphones, AI mobile phones are not the business of terminal equipment manufacturers, and there will be more interests involved behind them, and there will be more interfaces and cooperation that need to be mobilized.
This leads to the problem that without a system and detailed planning, AI phones are bound to be discounted. Li Nan, a former Meizu executive, pointed out that it is impossible to make a good AI device with the idea of a traditional smartphone.
An analyst who did not want to be named told us that AI is a good way to motivate users to change phones, but it is also a double-edged sword, if it cannot fully coordinate the interests of multiple parties, it will inevitably make AI mobile phones become a "four different" products, such as the opening of permissions and benefit distribution with app developers.
In Liu Zuohu's view, whether it is a super app or other apps, they are all members of the ecosystem, and they should be a relationship of co-construction, not a competitive relationship. If we are in a competitive relationship, this thing will not be done, and it must be built together in the end. It's definitely going to be a win-win situation, not who I want to strangle who today is impossible.
Zhong Xiaolei, a research analyst at Canalys, also pointed out to the Titanium **APP that in the end, it may not be a single device that truly provides a transformative experience, but the intelligent ecological experience brought by the manufacturer's cross-terminal AI capabilities.
At a time when AI mobile phones and AI PCs have to make changes due to the impact of AI, the key is to figure out their own development path and weigh the interests of ecological partners for terminal equipment manufacturers. Forcing consumers to bear the increased costs of AI may increase sales in the short term, but in the long run, it will only give rise to more "nail households".
Next week, February 26, MWC will be held in Barcelona, attracting tech giants and innovators from around the world to showcase the latest technologies and concepts. At that time, Titanium** will also come to the scene to bring the thinking and landing of AI mobile phones from global terminal manufacturers for the first time. (This article was first published by Du Zhiqiang, edited by Zhong Yi).
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