(Special thanks to glasseye for the lyrics.)
Original word link. Entering 2024, there are a lot of questions floating in the sky of A-shares:
How thick is the blood pack of the institution?
How many bullets does the PAW team have?
When exactly will the snowball be hammered?
When did Lao Hu cut meat?
Is A-share in the end?
Year-to-date, Partial Equity Mixed **-106%, *median -13%, more are copied at 2700, set at 2900**, and 2700 no new low, 2900 new low ** managers.
Last year, in "Buy in the Beijing Exchange Falls", we demonstrated the logic of "A shares are in the chip market", and the basic rules of the chip market are:
In the stock game market, the marginal incremental capital determines the market style.
Northbound pricing of core assets, quantitative pricing of 2000 index and micro-cap stocks, public pricing of TMT, new energy, medicine, consumption and other growth base camps, grapefruit pricing of various active themes, fixed income + and insurance pricing cycle and dividends, Wang Wang team pricing in special valuation.
In the past, it was a weighted stage, and the theme was singing. If weight is the subject matter, how should you deal with it?
This year, when you sort A-shares according to the total market capitalization, you will find a peculiar scene, year-to-date large market capitalization** is almost all red, and the top seven gainers are all large market capitalization**.
Who said that China does not have its own big 7, who said that China will not have its own "dividend-buyback" hot wheels, these big butts with a large total market value and a small circulating market value have become the grippers of this round of **.
But every time the special estimate is launched, the manager is like a thousand arrows piercing the heart. One asked,It's all things that everyone doesn't have, they usually don't look at it, they don't have time to adjust their positions at critical moments, and they can collapse all their positions when they start.
You think that the work of the PAW team is very easy to do, you just need to open the account every day, enter the password, buy and buy, and get off work after the bullet is fired.
In fact, the Wang Wang team should not only accurately avoid the heavy positions of institutions and foreign capital, but also avoid the direction of quantitative and grapefruit ** grouping, and also drive the index and sentiment to rush upward, bringing an atmosphere of active market.
Click a pass to elimination, the bullet is given to you, where do you rush?
What you think is the level of the ** is to moisten things silently, evenly, and indiscriminately provide liquidity support to the market, and provide key support for the precarious chip structure.
In fact, the level of ** is under the banner of "market value management into KPI assessment", the Shanghai Stock Exchange is unique, the GEM has reached new lows one after another, and 4,000 people are waiting to rise every day**.
And when you wake up from a big dream, you are shocked:
Strictly speaking, China Special Valuation is very much in line with the stock selection criteria of "defensive growth" of ** managers.
1. To be stable for a long time, the growth rate does not need to be too large (because the total growth rate is declining).
2. Have free cash flow, and the fundamental leverage should not be too high (do not engage in Ponzi cash flow).
3. Care about shareholders and have the willingness to pay dividends (and also have the ability to pay dividends).
4. Major shareholders will not think about selling the company to you every day (don't change hands every day like changing bosses).
But the entire A-share market has been trapped in the growth stock model for too long, so long that I don't know how to turn back. Everyone is too accustomed to left-sided games and linear extrapolation, and the performance is in line with expectations, with a falling limit; The performance exceeded expectations, and the price was high and down; The performance was lower than expected, and the direct decline limit.
The logic of this "defensive growth" is a change in the entire A-share discourse system.
From 2019 to 2021, northbound+ institutions controlled incremental funds and discourse power, and built a complete set of growth stock investment framework. At its peak, the entire A-share discourse system revolved around growth stocks, buying growth and small tickets was called offense, buying ** value and low-volatility dividends was called defense, and the so-called "value style has excess returns."", probably the meaning that everyone falls, but the value style falls less.
From a growth perspective,The total growth rate of the whole society has declined, and more and more growth has been falsified, turning into cyclical growth or even Ponzi growth; The high growth rate of high-growth enterprises is moving towards surplus and decline in involution; Constant IPOs, unbridled major shareholders and refinancing have drained market confidence. As northbound outflows continue and institutions lose pricing power, the original investment paradigm is being challenged.
From a value perspective,The three barrels of oil, the four major banks, the three major operators, coal, railways, etc., have been yang for three or even four consecutive years, not only providing excess returns, but also providing absolute returns; It not only provides high growth on the books, but also provides real dividends; It not only provides the beautiful plot of ROE, but also provides the return on capital of the dividend yield.
The 10-year Treasury fell below 25%, the lowest since April 2002. Every time ** is an opportunity to increase positions; Those who are prosperous, growing, technological, and innovative, every time they soar is an opportunity to escape.
Under the curtain of the A-share dance hall, value and growth, have they silently exchanged narrative identities?
Returning to the proposition of bailing out the market, in terms of technique, is it better for the Wang Wang team to buy ** heavy positions to untie the institution and send money to the north, or to start a mass line war from scratch? With **, is it better for ordinary people to follow the institutional volume data and listen to small compositions**, or to lie down and buy high-dividend stocks? In terms of Taoism, is the institutional oil arbitrage of central state-owned enterprises more harmful to shareholders, or is the unscrupulous fraud and sale of companies by private enterprises more harmful?
When for a considerable period of time, all the increments of social finance come from the ** end, if for a considerable period of time in the future, the incremental funds of A shares will also come from the PAW team, the expected level** and their supporters, are you struggling to tear up this Noah's Ark ticket? Or hop on board this steam-roaring ship with a swift leap? Or do you wake up early and realize that "you can't sell out, you can't sell out at all", give up your illusions, and leave this desperate backwater?
Superheroes only come when people are desperate, like every bottom.
The lyrics are here, remember to like it and watch it
I've never seen a bubble of U.S. stock rate hikes.
I haven't seen anyone set off fireworks at low waves.
Cutting rates is like your eyes killing and setting fire.
You didn't say anything **Disturb me.
Three thousand points, I met you by chance.
At the bottom of the national clouds, there is a protective disc dancing.
The bright top shook off a new low.
A share ballroom in 2024.
If there is time.
You're going to come and see me.
Look at how A-shares are gambling.
How my style has changed.
If you see me.
Please turn around and be amazed.
I'm afraid of my tears, my net worth like a shameful joke.
I've never seen a bubble of U.S. stock rate hikes.
I have never seen anyone set off fireworks with empty heads.
Cutting rates is like your eyes killing and setting fire.
You don't have to say anything **Disturb me.
But you sigh in the midst of the prosperity.
The flowers are falling and only the mud remains.
It's all your fault for the cold performance.
In the bull market band of ring A shares.
If there is time.
You're going to come and see me.
Look at how A-shares are gambling.
How my style has changed.
If you see me.
Please turn around and be amazed.
I'm afraid of my tears, my net worth like a shameful joke.
If one day.
My faith suddenly collapsed.
The strategy of the garden is without flowers.
The voice in the macrocosm is hoarse.
If there is such a day.
You're not going to run to me.
The bull market is like a dream.