Indonesia, the world's most Muslim-populous country and the world's fourth-most populous country, held the world's largest single-day election on Wednesday (14 February). The outcome of this election is not only related to Indonesia's internal political development, but also affects the nerves of the two superpowers, China and the United States. Because Indonesia, as the leader of Southeast Asia, is a key battlefield for China and the United States to compete for economic and political influence, whoever leads Indonesia will have an important impact on the regional geopolitical landscape.
According to a reliable unofficial sample count, former General Prabowo, 72, is on his verge of winning the first round without having to advance to the second round with at least 57 percent support. Prabowo announced his election that night and will succeed the current Jokowi, who has been in power for ten years, as the fifth term of Indonesia.
Prabowo's running mate is Jokowi's eldest son, Gibran, 36, who is the current mayor of Solo. The combination of Prabowo and Gibran, known as the "Phuket" combination, was strongly supported by Jokowi. Jokowi is very popular among the Indonesian people, and his governing platform and national development strategy have been widely recognized. Jokowi's support has added a lot of chips to Prabowo's campaign.
Prabowo's opponents are Anies, the former governor of the Jakarta Capital Region, and Ganjar, the former governor of Central Java. Anies' running mate is the general chairman of the National Awakening Party, Mu Haimin, and their combination, known as the "Amu" group, is supported by four parties: the National Democratic Party, the Prosperity and Justice Party and the Umma Party. Ganjar's running mate is the current Coordinating Minister for Politics, Legal and Security Affairs, Mahfouz, and their combination, known as the "Ganma" group, is supported by four political parties, including the Democratic Party of Struggle and the National Mission Party.
According to the results of the quick vote count, Anies and Ganjar received 25 votes each11% and 1664%, far behind Prabowo's 5725%。Both Anies and Ganjar said they would respect the final vote count of the Election Commission and congratulate Prabowo on his victory.
Prabowo's election has attracted widespread international attention, especially how his foreign policy will affect Indonesia's relations with China and the United States. Indonesia is the largest country in Southeast Asia and a core member of ASEAN, and its geographical location and economic scale make it play an important role in regional and international affairs.
Indonesia has always adhered to the tradition of non-alignment, practiced independent and pragmatic diplomacy, and did not take sides between China and the United States or the United States and Russia, but switched partners according to the situation, seeking to find the right and left sources. This diplomatic tactic has been called a "swing" by Western commentators, but for Indonesia, it is a "balance".
Jokowi is a representative of Indonesia's balanced diplomacy, and during his tenure, he maintained good relations with both China and the United States, and actively participated in multilateral cooperation to enhance Indonesia's international status. Jokowi has visited China five times, three from July 2022 to October 2023, and attended the opening ceremony of the Summer Universiade in Chengdu.
Jokowi has established a good personal friendship with Chinese leaders, and the two countries have carried out extensive cooperation in the fields of economy and trade, investment, infrastructure, epidemic prevention and control, especially the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, which costs 7.3 billion US dollars and accounts for 40% of Chinese investment, is a national key project of Indonesia and a landmark achievement of China's "Belt and Road" initiative in Indonesia. Jokowi has also visited the United States many times, and has good communication with both Biden and Trump, and the two countries also cooperate in security, energy, education and other fields.
Jokowi also actively promoted Indonesia to play a leading role in multilateral mechanisms such as ASEAN, the ASEAN Regional Forum, APEC, and the G20 to maintain regional peace and stability.
Whether Prabowo will continue Jokowi's diplomatic line, or change his course like the Philippines, is a matter of concern to China and the United States. Prabowo is a former general who has been involved in the armed crackdown on East Timor and has been barred from entering the country by the United States, so his diplomatic approach may be different.
During his election campaign, Prabowo attacked Jokowi with anti-China rhetoric, criticized Chinese workers for stealing Indonesian jobs, and vowed to defend Indonesia's sovereignty in the Natuna Sea in the South China Sea. However, Prabowo has also changed his tone and claimed that he will inherit Jokowi's diplomatic line, emphasizing that he respects China and likes the United States, and advocates resolving the South China Sea issue through friendly consultations.
Prabowo's foreign policy is likely to place greater emphasis on Indonesia's nationalism and national interests, or it is likely to be more active in the international arena, seeking to "make Indonesia great again." He is likely to take a tougher stance on sensitive issues, such as the South China Sea, posing some challenges to China-Indonesia relations.
But Prabowo will not easily give up economic cooperation with China, because China is Indonesia's largest partner and an important investment in Indonesia, and Indonesia needs Chinese capital and technology to promote its infrastructure construction and industrialization process. Prabowo will not completely turn to the United States, because the strategic interests of the United States are not completely consistent with Indonesia's, and the United States may ask Indonesia to make sacrifices or compromises on some issues, which may damage Indonesia's sovereignty and dignity.
Prabowo will not ignore Indonesia's role in ASEAN and other multilateral institutions, as Indonesia needs to use these platforms to assert its interests and influence, as well as coordinate and cooperate with other countries to address common challenges such as climate change, terrorism, transnational crime, etc.
To sum up, Prabowo's foreign policy may make some adjustments and changes on the basis of Jokowi, but there will be no fundamental subversion and turn. Prabowo will continue to follow Indonesia's tradition of non-alignment and independent and pragmatic diplomacy, seek to maintain a certain balance and autonomy between China and the United States, and will also actively participate in multilateral cooperation to enhance Indonesia's international status and prestige.