All along, the focus of the Wall Street debate has been on the ".Is the future of the U.S. economy a soft or hard landing? However, when we dig deeper, we find that the answer to this question may be far more complex than we think. Long-term observations and studies have even made us start thinking:Perhaps the path chosen by the US economy this time is to "not land at all."
Therefore, perhaps we should think from a different perspective and a different question: Is it really beneficial for the U.S. economy to maintain the existing low-altitude flight for a long time and gradually and steadily grow the economy? If the Fed raises interest rates again, what will be the impact on this situation? These two key questions precisely capture the focus of the topics that our article wants to go deeper.
Although the current U.S. economy is running smoothly on the surface, flying low and seemingly promising, if we look beneath the surface, we will find that the Fed is only tightening money** while implementing extreme easing in the amount of money, and the adoption of this strategy has made it no longer short of funds in the U.S. market.
It is like a kind of "double-edged sword", on the one hand, it promotes the rapid operation of the economy, and on the other hand, it may bring unknown risks.
Interestingly, despite the fact that mortgage rates have increased several times over, house prices have been able to rise steadily, which clearly illustrates an important fact: the abundance of money in the United States is almost the beginning of a flood of gold.
However, once there is a surplus of funds, then the development of real industries such as manufacturing may be hindered, which will seriously affect the healthy development of the overall economy.
Second, the impact behind the growth of investment scale
Looking at another data, it is said that the scale of manufacturing investment in the United States this year has reached three times the average of 2010, and this figure continues to rise. This is a positive message that the U.S. manufacturing industry is growing at a rapid pace. But if we take a closer look at the implications behind this data, it's both an opportunity and a huge challenge.
The U.S.** has been actively learning from past experience and using bills and other means to promote manufacturing reshoring back to the U.S., which has boosted the growth of manufacturing investment. However, the implementation of such a policy also brings with it a serious problem: a labor shortage.
The most direct consequence of the labor shortage is the increase in labor costs, which will undoubtedly have a serious impact on the development of the manufacturing industry.
For example, when the U.S. forcibly pushes manufacturing back to work through various means, it will make efficient resources** that could have been obtained from the world scarce, and in this case, investment in labor and infrastructure will inevitably become more important.
And in order to meet this demand, the United States has to pay a lot of money, and this creates a contradiction:No matter how interest rates are raised, the U.S. economy still needs money to keep growing.
The existence of this contradiction also explains why the US economy is still in a state of continuous rise after continuous interest rate hikes.
Looking back at the economic history of the United States, we can find that for the United States, exploring new development tracks and continuous innovation are the key factors to promote sustained economic prosperity.
However, the current United States seems to have fallen into a fixed mindset and is only willing to compete for a limited market share among the world's leading companies, thus gradually ignoring the importance of innovation. This is undoubtedly bad news for the development of the global economy.
Like the United States today, although it undoubtedly has transformative innovations in VR, blockchain, from the metaverse to AI, and many other aspects, why is the GDP of the United States still unable to recover to the prosperity of the 90s when the Internet changed?
At the end of the day, this is the core problem of today's global economy.
How can global economic growth be achieved when the most powerful countries refuse to innovate on a large scale and are content to compete in stock markets? How is it possible to sustain a global economic boom?
So how can the U.S. economy find a new way to grow?？First, the U.S. needs to recognize that chasing industries that others are already familiar with is not a sustainable approach, which requires the U.S. to be more open to new possibilities. At the same time, as the economic development process of the United States has shown since its history, innovation is the biggest engine for sustainable economic development.
From the above analysis, we can conclude that the core economic problem facing the United States is the contradiction between its policies and actual economic needs。In policyAlthough the United States has made monetary policy adjustments, this has not changed the fundamentals of its economy, but has made it face more doubts in economic development. On the side of economic needsThe United States seems to rely too much on gaining more shares in the existing economic system and industrial chain, while ignoring the core of its economic development - innovation.
Therefore,As far as the United States is concerned, the urgent problem to be solved is how to get rid of the current conflicts and contradictions and start a new economic cycle by adjusting policies and reshaping the economic structure.
This requires the United States to have a new perspective, make every effort to explore and consolidate new economic growth points, and promote industrial innovation and transformation, in order to achieve long-term stable economic growth.
However, solving this problem will not be easy, as it requires a fresh approach, a perspective that can integrate new trends in the global economy with a keen eye for the future. So, how will this new perspective shape for the United States? In the next step, what path will the United States choose to resolve the current crisis? These are all issues that we need to pay further attention to and think about. At the same time, we hope that this article will provide our readers with a new perspective to understand and analyze the current state of the global economy and future development trends.