Approaching the Spring Festival, gasoline and diesel stocking has also entered the climax stage, the first business has different expectations after the Spring Festival, so as to adjust the pace and quantity of its stocking, so how will the gasoline and diesel market operate before and after the Spring Festival? We analyze from the supply and demand side.
First, the first day of consolidation has broken through in the short term
Brent was at $75-$80 for 29 working days, and on the 25th, it broke through the range strongly and closed at 82$43 per barrel, mainly related to two positives, one is the attack on Russia's Black Sea refinery**, which may lead to the blockage of diesel exports; Second, the recently announced U.S. economic indicators continue to perform strongly, the U.S. recession expectations have further weakened, even so, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have not significantly cooled or delayed, as of the latest data on the 26th, the Fed's March interest rate cut is still expected to be around 50%, the U.S. economy is running strongly, coupled with the recent reduction of the discount rate by the Central Bank of China, the market's economic expectations for China and the United States have improved. Whether the oil distribution can continue to strengthen in the later period mainly depends on whether the above two benefits are sustainable, so as to support the further upward trend of the disk, and the geopolitical situation is still the core, pay attention to whether the multi-party mediation can achieve results.
Second, the expected change of gasoline and diesel drives the increase and decrease of speculative demand
In view of the expectation of gasoline stocking before the Spring Festival, gasoline will continue to be stocked up for the Spring Festival, according to Longzhong information statistics, gasoline will buck the trend from November 2023 and deviate from the trend as of January 26, Shandong gasoline has increased from a low of 415 yuan in November to 8428 yuan ton, an increase of 517%, while diesel and ** are **, diesel ** compared with the same period **228 yuan ton or 3.06%, Brent *** $4 barrel or 509%, so the gasoline-** crack spread rose to a high level, slipping from a high of 1057 to 862 in January, but it was still in a high position, ** business speculation was cautious, while the diesel-** crack spread has dropped to 480, the speculative risk has declined, and some ** business games after the Spring Festival diesel demand is small, in the crack spread when the low position to open a position into the market, Shandong diesel shipping volume Therefore, Longzhong information statistics, January 19-25, 2024 week, Shandong diesel shipping volume rose to 1210,000 tons, 152% month-on-month. From the above conclusions, ** is relatively strong, but gasoline ** rose to a high level, and there is a certain overdraft of stocking before the Spring Festival, while diesel is currently ** low, and the demand is expected to improve after the Spring Festival, so it is expected that gasoline ** may decline after the Spring Festival, and diesel ** has a certain ** expectation.