The hottest sector in the A** market in 2024 is probably high dividends.
has always been low-key, and this year it has suddenly become popular, and this wave of dividend strategy has attracted a lot of market attention, and of course, it has also generated some controversy, especially on the basis of strengthening against the market in 2023 (the CSI Dividend Total Return Index will close up 6. in 202334%), is the current dividend overheated?Can you stay tuned?Let's focus on a set of data.
[Is the bonus strategy overheated?]】
To measure market congestion, it is generally supported by data such as turnover and turnover rate. Judging from the two indicators of CSI Dividend ETF (515080) underlying index - CSI Dividend Index, it is different from what everyone imaginedThe CSI Dividend Index may not be so hot at the moment, or even a little low.
Both the turnover and turnover rate data are at a 10-year low level, and they are far from being crowded, and there is still high upside in the future.
Data from wind time period: 20141.1~2023.12.29
According to the Yangtze River ** statistics,Compared with the past performance of popular sectors such as liquor and new energy, the popularity of the CSI Dividend Index is still far from the first two. Even at a recent point in strength (2024-01-05), the trading proportion of CSI dividend of 28% is far lower than that of 40% of liquor and 94% of new energy.
Source**: Yangtze River**.
[Three logics or support the long-term improvement of the dividend strategy].
1) The "antidote" to allocation in the era of low interest rates
From the perspective of asset price comparison, the dividend return in the interest rate downward cycle has improved significantly. In Japan, for example, since the 90s, after a slowdown in economic growth, a deteriorating balance sheet, and an inflection point in population growth, the high-dividend style has prevailed most of the time. During the long-term downward cycle of long-term interest rates, Japan's high-dividend index has outperformed the Topix index for a long time.
Data from Huafu**.
China's long-term interest rate is currently in a downward trend, and there may be further new lows in the future. By the end of 2023, the 10-year Treasury rate had fallen to2.57%, the difference between the CSI Dividend Index dividend yield (over the past 12 months) and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is currently at an all-time highThe interest rate environment is relatively accommodative, both marginal and absolute, and the attractiveness of high-dividend assets has been further enhanced.
Data**: wind
2) The enrichment of the supply of dividend assets is expected to further strengthen the high dividend characteristics of the dividend index
As various industries enter a mature period of development, A-share listed companies will gradually grow into value-oriented companies, and the dividend rate is expected to gradually increase, and the supply of dividend assets will become more and more abundant in the long run, which is good for the market dividend yield. Wind data shows that the annual cash dividend amount of A-shares in 2022 will be exceeded2.14 trillionIn recent years, the dividend yield of Wind All A has also shown a gradual upward trend, and has now exceeded 2%.
Data from wind
In terms of policy, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has previously issued and implemented the "Cash Dividends of Listed Companies" and the "Decision on Amending the Guidelines for the Articles of Association of Listed Companies" to promote listed companies to continuously enhance their awareness of dividends, which will help to go furtherStrengthen the high dividend characteristics of the dividend index, and enhance the investment capacity and liquidity of the index. Wind data shows the latest dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index, at an all-time high level.
Data from wind time period: 20141.1~2023.12.29
3) The valuation of the CSI Dividend Index is still at a relatively low historical level
As of the end of 2023, the CSI Dividend Index has a price-to-earnings ratio (TTM).5.88 times, below historyThe above time range has a certain valuation cost performance.
Data from wind time period: 20141.1~2023.12.29
[What kind of money does the CSI Dividend Index make, and can it be sustainable in the future?]】
From the perspective of historical performance, the annualized return of the CSI Dividend Total Return Index in the past 10 years is as high, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 and SSE 50 Total Return Indexes, with annualized excess returns respectively. 80%。The annualized Sharpe ratio of the interval is 068, which is also ahead of the mainstream broad-based index in the same period, indicating that its ability to bear unit risk and obtain excess returns is relatively better.
Data**: wind
According to the Borg formula, the long-term return of an index is mainly determined by a number of key factors such as dividend yield, earnings growth, and price-to-earnings ratio. The split of the CSI Dividend Index over the past ten years of earnings performance found thatIts valuation dimension contribution is negative, and the range return is more from dividends + earnings, especially earnings as the main driving force.
Data**: wind
Starting from the driving model, Guosen recommends paying attention to the contribution of profit to excess returns. According to the analysis of Guoxin**, in the range of excess returns obtained by the dividend strategy, the valuation in the short term has a negative contribution, and the profit and dividends basically account for 50% eachIn the medium term, earnings contribute about twice as much as valuationsFrom the perspective of long-term returns**, the defensive attributes behind the pure dividend and broad-based dividend strategies are mainly contributed by profits, and the driving mode during the period of substantial market improvement is mainly valuation.
In addition, according to the previous data analysis of Minsheng**, even if the income brought by valuation repair is not consideredConsidering only profits and dividends, the expected annualized return of the CSI Dividend Index may still be more than 10%, which has a more significant long-term allocation value.
CSI Dividend ETF (515080).Copy and track the trend of the CSI Dividend Index, which mainly selects 100** stocks with high cash dividend yield, dividend continuity of three years or more, and a certain scale and liquidity in the two cities, and uses dividend yield weighting to reflect the overall performance of high dividend in the A** field**. According to historical data, the CSI Dividend Index as a whole presents the characteristics of high dividends and low valuation, and when the market performs, the safe-haven value is gradually highlighted.
The above content and data have nothing to do with the position of the interface and do not constitute investment advice. Do so at your own risk.