Looking back on the whole 2023 national imported sunflower meal market, the overall trend is "W", first weak and stable and then rising sharply and then weak, the average spot price in 2023 is 3137 yuan ton, compared with 290 yuan ton in 2022, a decrease of 846%。The highest average price of the whole year was 3,889 yuan ton in mid-August, and the lowest price was 2,739 yuan ton at the end of the year.
Throughout the first half of the year, with the increase of domestic imports of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the domestic rapeseed meal ** improved, meal substitution came to the prelude, rapeseed meal and sunflower seed meal price spread fluctuations, downstream feed has successively used more advantageous meal feed raw materials to replace soybean meal, sunflower seed meal in the first quarter of the year to continue the advantages of 2022, downstream feed enterprises in the early procurement of forward contracts in the first quarter, at the same time, a large number of domestic rapeseed to Hong Kong, oil mill crushing profits, so that some oil mills from soybean to rapeseed, superimposed imported rapeseed meal, The market rapeseed meal quickly occupied the market before the aquatic season arrived, and the sunflower seed meal was weak. At the same time, as China's largest importer of sunflower seed meal, Ukraine's continuous war of attrition with Russia has caused the domestic sunflower seed volume data in the third quarter to plummet, and the market has decreased.
Sunflower seeds in the third quarter maintained a rise, but at the end of September followed the soybean meal ** high level fall, on the one hand, the arrival of Hong Kong is concentrated and at this time the sunflower seed meal ** advantage gradually declined, downstream feed enterprises in the sunflower meal import volume decreased, have begun to adjust the formula, only individual feed enterprises to maintain the basic rigid need to procure, supply and demand are weak to promote ** down. In the fourth quarter, domestic oil mills began to increase the import volume of rapeseed, replacing the difference in market share, and the domestic breeding efficiency was not good, unless the price difference was very cost-effective in order to allow downstream feed enterprises to adjust the amount of sunflower seed meal, which was obviously worse than psychological expectations, and continued to run weakly.
From the first end, according to China Customs data, the domestic sunflower meal import volume in November 2023 will be 31860,000 tons, an increase of 9 from October 2023350,000 tons, an increase of 41 percent month-on-month57%；This is a decrease of 1 from the same period last year10,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 336%。Among them, the average import price in November was 405$43 ton. As of January to November 2023, the cumulative import of domestic sunflower meal is 258570,000 tons, an increase of 56 over the same period last year780,000 tons, an increase of 2814%。
In terms of importing countries, the import of Ukrainian sunflower meal is still relatively high, with an import volume of 174 from January to November510,000 tons, reaching 8546%, followed by Bulgaria with 49740,000 tons, accounting for 2436%, and Russian imports were 34320,000 tons, accounting for 1681%。The annual import volume trend shows a "V" shaped trend, with the lowest import volume from August to September, the peak import volume in February and November, and the import volume is estimated to be around 2.8 million in 2023, and the import volume is expected to exceed the 3 million ton level in 2024.
Throughout the year, the fluctuations are more obvious than in 2022, and the ups and downs have long been calm in the minds of importers, and the large increase in rapeseed meal has suppressed sunflower seed meal. According to the current domestic fundamentals, driven by the expected increase in soybean production in South America and the cost of continuous decline in U.S. soybeans, the meal market continues to be under pressure. Brazil's rainfall forecast has weakened the momentum of weather speculation in U.S. beans, and the expectation of loose supply is expected to continue to dominate the U.S. bean and domestic meal** markets to find support downward. Soybean meal** has not stopped falling, sunflower meal imports remain high, and port inventories may break through historical highs. Oil mills in 2024 to import rapeseed to buy ships continue, the first year ago it is difficult to have a big momentum, the import of sunflower seed meal to buy ships in the first quarter is not much gap, the second quarter to buy ships need to be combined with the downstream feed enterprises to undertake the capacity, while the import of Brazilian soybeans into the peak period, uncertain factors still exist, according to the import cost given by the importer is still in the inverted stage, the basis of domestic sunflower seed meal imported in the far month is higher, and the downstream feed enterprises buy less. Pay close attention to the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the changes in the purchase of sunflower seed meal in the far month.